Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure since late February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent US special forces insertions into Iranian territory to rescue crew from a downed F-15E jet on April 3-4, marking the first confirmed ground operations. Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne, thousands of Marines, and amphibious assets signal preparations for potential larger-scale ground actions to secure nuclear sites or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump declared strategic objectives nearing completion on April 1, vowing strikes for two-to-three more weeks unless Iran opens the strait and pursues ceasefire talks, which Tehran has rejected. These developments, including rising casualties and indirect diplomacy, drive high implied probabilities for US forces entry by late April, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$127,096,239 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
100%
December 31
100%
$127,096,239 Vol.
March 31
$73,913,920 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$39,259,937 Vol.
100%
December 31
$12,419,952 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure since late February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent US special forces insertions into Iranian territory to rescue crew from a downed F-15E jet on April 3-4, marking the first confirmed ground operations. Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne, thousands of Marines, and amphibious assets signal preparations for potential larger-scale ground actions to secure nuclear sites or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump declared strategic objectives nearing completion on April 1, vowing strikes for two-to-three more weeks unless Iran opens the strait and pursues ceasefire talks, which Tehran has rejected. These developments, including rising casualties and indirect diplomacy, drive high implied probabilities for US forces entry by late April, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$127,096,239Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure since late February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent US special forces insertions into Iranian territory to rescue crew from a downed F-15E jet on April 3-4, marking the first confirmed ground operations. Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne, thousands of Marines, and amphibious assets signal preparations for potential larger-scale ground actions to secure nuclear sites or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump declared strategic objectives nearing completion on April 1, vowing strikes for two-to-three more weeks unless Iran opens the strait and pursues ceasefire talks, which Tehran has rejected. These developments, including rising casualties and indirect diplomacy, drive high implied probabilities for US forces entry by late April, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$127,096,239Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure since late February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on recent US special forces insertions into Iranian territory to rescue crew from a downed F-15E jet on April 3-4, marking the first confirmed ground operations. Pentagon deployments of the 82nd Airborne, thousands of Marines, and amphibious assets signal preparations for potential larger-scale ground actions to secure nuclear sites or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump declared strategic objectives nearing completion on April 1, vowing strikes for two-to-three more weeks unless Iran opens the strait and pursues ceasefire talks, which Tehran has rejected. These developments, including rising casualties and indirect diplomacy, drive high implied probabilities for US forces entry by late April, though de-escalation remains possible via negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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