US special operations forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue mission inside Iran over the April 4-5 weekend, extracting the second crew member from a US F-15E fighter jet downed in Iranian airspace on April 3, marking the first confirmed ground incursion amid the six-week-old US-Israeli air campaign against Iranian missile sites, bridges, and petrochemical facilities. This operation, involving firefights with IRGC forces and close air support, has fueled trader consensus on escalation risks, as President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while vowing intensified strikes if unmet. No large-scale ground invasion has occurred, but rapid deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and logistics signal preparation for potential nuclear site seizures or island operations, with diplomatic channels silent amid ongoing retaliatory threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$123,708,824 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
100%
December 31
100%
$123,708,824 Vol.
March 31
$73,762,699 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$36,583,425 Vol.
100%
December 31
$11,728,751 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special operations forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue mission inside Iran over the April 4-5 weekend, extracting the second crew member from a US F-15E fighter jet downed in Iranian airspace on April 3, marking the first confirmed ground incursion amid the six-week-old US-Israeli air campaign against Iranian missile sites, bridges, and petrochemical facilities. This operation, involving firefights with IRGC forces and close air support, has fueled trader consensus on escalation risks, as President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while vowing intensified strikes if unmet. No large-scale ground invasion has occurred, but rapid deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and logistics signal preparation for potential nuclear site seizures or island operations, with diplomatic channels silent amid ongoing retaliatory threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$123,708,824Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special operations forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue mission inside Iran over the April 4-5 weekend, extracting the second crew member from a US F-15E fighter jet downed in Iranian airspace on April 3, marking the first confirmed ground incursion amid the six-week-old US-Israeli air campaign against Iranian missile sites, bridges, and petrochemical facilities. This operation, involving firefights with IRGC forces and close air support, has fueled trader consensus on escalation risks, as President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while vowing intensified strikes if unmet. No large-scale ground invasion has occurred, but rapid deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and logistics signal preparation for potential nuclear site seizures or island operations, with diplomatic channels silent amid ongoing retaliatory threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$123,708,824Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
US special operations forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue mission inside Iran over the April 4-5 weekend, extracting the second crew member from a US F-15E fighter jet downed in Iranian airspace on April 3, marking the first confirmed ground incursion amid the six-week-old US-Israeli air campaign against Iranian missile sites, bridges, and petrochemical facilities. This operation, involving firefights with IRGC forces and close air support, has fueled trader consensus on escalation risks, as President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while vowing intensified strikes if unmet. No large-scale ground invasion has occurred, but rapid deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and logistics signal preparation for potential nuclear site seizures or island operations, with diplomatic channels silent amid ongoing retaliatory threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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