OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8 marks the clearest near-term catalyst, shifting trader focus toward a potential listing window in late 2026 or early 2027 at valuations nearing $1 trillion. The company has engaged Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley while preparing retail share allocations, yet executives emphasize that no firm timeline exists and certain initiatives remain easier privately. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s parallel filing and broader AI-sector momentum add urgency, though historical patterns show tech IPOs frequently slip due to market conditions or internal priorities. Key upcoming milestones include any public prospectus updates or earnings commentary that could clarify September versus year-end targets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoReports suggest OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Late June 2026 reports indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO until 2027, reflecting concerns over profitability and market conditions. This news caused a sharp drop in market prices for all near-term IPO outcomes, signaling diminished confidence in a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms confidential IPO filing, timing uncertain
CEO Sam Altman confirmed the confidential IPO filing but reiterated that the timing of the public offering remains uncertain, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and supporting lower prices for near-term outcomes.
Market speculation grows that OpenAI IPO will occur in early 2027
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, market speculators and prediction markets adjusted expectations, with only about one-in-three odds for a 2026 IPO and a high likelihood of an IPO by June 2027. This reflected diminished confidence in a 2026 IPO and reinforced the delay narrative.
OpenAI may delay IPO after SpaceX’s rocky debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 3%43%
Forbes noted that OpenAI’s advisers warned a 2026 listing might not attract sufficient retail demand after SpaceX’s turbulent IPO, reinforcing market pessimism for the August‑31 and July‑31 outcomes.
OpenAI IPO delay to 2027? What’s confirmed, what changed
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%7%
EBC reported that OpenAI had not set a firm IPO date, reinforcing market belief that the 2026 deadline was uncertain and contributing to the final drop to 0% for the June‑30 outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms IPO delay amid tech market volatility
Following media reports, OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the decision to delay the IPO to 2027, citing market conditions and valuation concerns. This confirmation further reduced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI officially announces IPO delay to 2027 after advisor consultations
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%
Following internal deliberations and advisor recommendations, OpenAI publicly confirmed the decision to delay its IPO until 2027 to preserve valuation and market enthusiasm, effectively resolving the market to 'No' for any 2026 IPO completion.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying IPO to 2027 Over $1 Trillion Valuation Target
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%32%
Reports revealed that Sam Altman rejected lowering OpenAI's $1 trillion valuation target to list in 2026, choosing instead to delay the public debut until 2027.
Market speculation solidifies delay of OpenAI IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%28%
Following reports of a delay, prediction markets and traders on platforms like Kalshi adjusted their expectations, with a majority now anticipating an IPO announcement by mid-2027 rather than in 2026, reflecting diminished confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Bloomberg reports OpenAI considering IPO delay to 2027, impacting SoftBank shares
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%6%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027, which negatively affected market sentiment and contributed to the collapse in near-term IPO probabilities, especially for June and July 2026.
Market sentiment shifts as OpenAI IPO delay rumors surface amid tech stock slump
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%30%
Following SpaceX's IPO and a broader tech market downturn, reports indicated OpenAI might postpone its IPO to 2027, reflecting investor caution and causing sharp declines in near-term IPO probabilities across all dates.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until next year after SpaceX debut
September 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was leaning toward holding off its IPO until 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut. The story triggered a dramatic fall in all near‑term outcomes (July 31, August 31, September 30) while the December outcome stayed relatively high due to its later horizon.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%19%
Following SpaceX's challenging IPO, OpenAI's advisers cautioned about weak retail enthusiasm, leading the company to lean toward postponing its IPO to 2027. This development further lowered market odds for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s rocky debut, NYT reports
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s volatile debut. The story intensified negative sentiment, driving the market to its final drop to 0 % Yes by July 1 and anchoring the June 30 outcome.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%4%
Multiple sources reported that OpenAI was reconsidering its IPO timing, leaning toward postponing the public offering until 2027 due to market volatility, valuation concerns, and the rocky debut of SpaceX's IPO, causing sharp declines in market prices.
OpenAI and Broadcom unveil LLM-optimized inference chip
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%25%
OpenAI partnered with Broadcom to launch a large language model-optimized inference chip, demonstrating continued innovation and investment in AI infrastructure. This development supported market confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects ahead of its IPO.
Reports emerge OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
The New York Times and other sources reported that OpenAI executives are leaning toward delaying the IPO until 2027, citing concerns about market enthusiasm and recent large IPOs like SpaceX, which caused a sharp decline in near-term IPO market prices.
Reports indicate OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027, shifting market expectations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%52%
News emerged that OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its IPO until 2027, causing a sharp decline in the probability of a 2026 IPO across all near-term outcomes, reflecting increased market skepticism.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market concerns
Reports on June 25, 2026 indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and investor appetite, causing a significant drop in the perceived likelihood of a 2026 IPO across all outcome dates.
Reports say OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%8%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 due to a crowded IPO pipeline and poor market reception of SpaceX's IPO, leading to sharp market price drops.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market concerns
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%45%
Reports indicated OpenAI's executives were reconsidering the aggressive 2026 IPO timeline, influenced by market conditions and the recent SpaceX IPO, leading to a drop in market confidence for a 2026 listing.
Reports emerge OpenAI considering delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%31%
Multiple reports indicated OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027 due to market volatility and the poor reception of SpaceX's IPO. This news caused a sharp decline in market confidence for all 2026 IPO date options.
OpenAI and Broadcom unveil first AI chip, aiming deployment by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 55%2%
OpenAI and Broadcom revealed a new AI chip designed to meet OpenAI's insatiable compute demand, indicating ongoing infrastructure investment that supports long-term growth prospects ahead of the IPO.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid competition and losses
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Despite filings, concerns about OpenAI's large financial losses, operational readiness, and competition from SpaceX and Anthropic led to sharp declines in market prices for near-term IPO dates, reflecting growing doubts about a 2026 IPO completion.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%11%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market sentiment for a 2026 IPO, causing a modest rise in probabilities for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reports $3.7 billion Q1 2026 loss on $5.7 billion revenue
December 31, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
Financial disclosures revealed OpenAI's high cash burn and losses, raising investor concerns about profitability and sustainability, which pressured market prices for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI reports $21 billion operating loss in Q1 2026 amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 56%20%
Financial disclosures in mid-June 2026 revealed OpenAI's massive operating losses, raising concerns about profitability and dampening enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO, contributing to a sharp decline in market prices.
OpenAI states IPO timing undecided, may delay public debut
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%22%
OpenAI announced it had not decided on IPO timing and might delay going public, citing benefits of remaining private longer, causing market uncertainty and price declines.
OpenAI CFO signals concerns about IPO readiness and cash burn
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO expressed concerns about the company's readiness to meet public reporting standards and the high cash burn rate, suggesting a possible delay of the IPO into 2027. This caused increased skepticism about near-term IPO dates and contributed to price declines for earlier outcomes.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
August 31, 2026 dips to 3%2%
A Wall Street Journal story noted that Anthropic’s confidential filing earlier in June increased competitive pressure, causing a modest dip in the August 31 2026 outcome as investors feared OpenAI might be pushed later than Q4 2026 (price fell from 5 % to 3 %).
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes strategic flexibility on IPO timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 57%13%
Sam Altman publicly stated that while OpenAI has filed confidentially, the company has not decided on the IPO timing and values remaining private for operational flexibility. This tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO, contributing to mixed price movements in late June 2026.
Market optimism rebounds on positive legal ruling and IPO progress
December 31, 2026 jumps to 49%7%
Following a favorable legal ruling for OpenAI and continued IPO preparations, market confidence increased for a late 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 outcome, causing a price rebound.
OpenAI launches Partner Network with $150M investment to scale AI deployment
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%9%
OpenAI announced a $150 million investment to build a partner ecosystem and train 300,000 certified consultants by end of 2026, signaling operational scaling and supporting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO despite regulatory challenges.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%26%
Sam Altman published a post emphasizing AI's transformative potential and the company's strategic considerations, reinforcing that while IPO preparations are underway, the timing remains flexible, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
SpaceX completes IPO, increasing market focus on AI tech listings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%31%
SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, 2026, drawing investor attention to AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's. This event intensified competition and market scrutiny, influencing OpenAI's IPO timing expectations and market pricing.
Coalition of state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%5%
A legal probe by multiple U.S. state attorneys general into OpenAI raised concerns about regulatory risks ahead of the IPO, negatively impacting market confidence in near-term listing prospects.
SpaceX launches IPO, intensifying tech IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%3%
SpaceX's IPO launch in June 2026 heightened competition among major tech IPOs, indirectly impacting OpenAI's market sentiment and IPO timing expectations.
SpaceX launches IPO, trading begins on Nasdaq
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%27%
SpaceX's IPO, the largest ever, debuted with a high valuation but experienced a rocky market reception. This event caused caution among investors regarding mega tech IPOs, negatively impacting OpenAI's IPO market sentiment.
SpaceX IPO filing adds pressure on OpenAI's public debut timeline
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%5%
SpaceX's IPO filing on June 12, 2026, intensified market focus on OpenAI's IPO timing, as both companies are major AI sector players. This event contributed to volatility in OpenAI IPO market prices, with some traders adjusting expectations for later IPO dates due to competitive and market dynamics.
SpaceX files confidential IPO paperwork
December 31, 2026 rises to 48%3%
SpaceX’s IPO filing on June 12 added pressure on OpenAI to signal its own timeline. The news helped sustain market optimism for a Q4‑2026 OpenAI IPO, keeping the December‑31‑2026 probability elevated.
Coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 44%3%
A multistate investigation was launched into OpenAI's practices, including data handling and user safety, introducing significant regulatory risk that negatively impacted near-term IPO expectations and investor confidence.
State Attorneys General Launch Sweeping Investigation into OpenAI
September 30, 2026 surges to 45%33%
A coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opened a broad probe into OpenAI, serving the company with a subpoena and adding regulatory hurdles just days after its IPO filing.
SpaceX IPO launches on Nasdaq, setting record valuation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%27%
SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq, marking the largest IPO in history and intensifying investor focus on AI and tech IPOs, indirectly affecting OpenAI's market sentiment and IPO timing expectations.
SpaceX IPO debuts with record valuation, impacting AI IPO market sentiment
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, achieving a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion. The IPO's initial rally and subsequent volatility caused OpenAI's advisors to become cautious, influencing OpenAI's IPO timing considerations and reducing near-term IPO probabilities.
SpaceX IPO launch intensifies competition among major tech IPOs
December 31, 2026 rises to 46%2%
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, reaching a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion, heightening competition for investor capital and indirectly impacting expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and market sentiment.
SpaceX completes record-breaking IPO, raising $75 billion
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. This event intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market dynamics and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI Acquires Cloud Infrastructure Startup Ona to Support Codex
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%20%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Ona to bring secure cloud execution and orchestration technology to its Codex ecosystem. This M&A activity highlighted OpenAI's aggressive expansion but also underscored its massive operational spending ahead of a potential IPO.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to enhance AI coding capabilities
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
OpenAI announced plans to acquire Ona, a provider of secure cloud execution technology, to expand its AI coding assistant Codex, signaling ongoing strategic investments ahead of its IPO, which may influence investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
OpenAI to acquire cloud platform Ona to bolster Codex
September 30, 2026 jumps to 12%7%
OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona, a secure‑cloud platform for its Codex AI coding assistant. The strategic acquisition helped stabilize sentiment and produced a modest rebound in the September 30 odds, which briefly rose before sliding again.
OpenAI Announces Acquisition of Cloud Startup Ona
September 30, 2026 jumps to 24%14%
OpenAI announced its acquisition of Ona to bring secure cloud execution to its Codex ecosystem, signaling continued operational scaling ahead of its public debut. This acquisition helped stabilize market sentiment and led to a minor recovery in the September 30, 2026 outcome.
Market skepticism grows over near-term OpenAI IPO dates
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Market prices dropped sharply for near-term IPO dates like July 31 and August 31, reflecting growing skepticism about OpenAI completing an IPO before late 2026 due to lack of public confirmation and competitive pressures.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to expand Codex ecosystem
September 30, 2026 rises to 39%2%
OpenAI announced plans to acquire Ona, a secure cloud execution technology provider, to enhance its Codex AI coding assistant ecosystem. This strategic acquisition signaled ongoing operational scaling ahead of its public debut, positively influencing investor confidence.
OpenAI CFO says IPO filing is ‘good hygiene’ but declines timeline comment
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%
CNBC quoted CFO Sarah Friar saying that filing an S‑1 is “good hygiene” but she would not comment on a specific timeline, stoking uncertainty about when the IPO would happen. The market reacted with a sharp slide for the June 30 2026 outcome (price fell from 4 % to 0 %).
SpaceX files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%24%
SpaceX filed its public S-1 prospectus on June 10, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq debut with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market expectations and causing volatility in OpenAI IPO market prices, particularly affecting near-term IPO date probabilities.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, increasing competition for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%10%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensified competitive pressure on OpenAI, leading to market uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timeline, says likely within next year
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%33%
Altman told employees the IPO would likely occur within the next year, implying a possible delay into 2027. This statement caused a sharp market repricing, reducing probabilities for a 2026 IPO and shifting expectations toward 2027.
Market reacts sharply to SEC review concerns and financial losses
August 31, 2026 dips to 3%4%
Concerns about OpenAI's $14 billion projected losses in 2026 and potential SEC review delays caused a sharp drop in market prices for near-term IPO outcomes, reflecting increased skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Sam Altman Tells Employees OpenAI Expects to Go Public Within the Next Year
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%20%
CEO Sam Altman told staff that OpenAI expects to go public within the next year, but noted that recursive self-improvement advances could delay the timeline. This statement tempered expectations for an immediate IPO, causing the September 30, 2026 outcome to drop sharply.
OpenAI projects $25 billion revenue and $27 billion cash burn in IPO filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 49%1%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing revealed rapid revenue growth but also significant projected losses, highlighting the financial challenges ahead and influencing investor caution about IPO timing.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timeline, stating 'within the next year'
September 30, 2026 plunges to 36%39%
Altman communicated to staff that the IPO could occur anytime within the next year, introducing uncertainty and causing markets to price in a longer timeline, shifting expectations toward 2027.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI by dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces acquisition of Ona to enhance Codex ecosystem
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%2%
OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona, a startup providing secure cloud execution technology, signaling continued operational scaling ahead of its public debut. This acquisition indicated OpenAI's growth strategy and strengthened investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects ahead of the IPO.
CEO Sam Altman signals IPO within next year, boosting late 2026 IPO confidence
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced plans for an IPO within the next year, supporting market confidence in a December 31, 2026 IPO and causing a rise in the probability for that outcome.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing, emphasizes timing uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 71%7%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential IPO filing on June 9, 2026, acknowledging the filing was expected to leak and reiterating that the timing of the public offering was undecided. This announcement reinforced market expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI IPO anticipation grows amid Wall Street scrutiny
December 31, 2026 drops to 71%7%
Following the confidential filing, media reports on June 9, 2026, highlighted the upcoming IPO and the scrutiny OpenAI will face from Wall Street, emphasizing the company's rapid growth and losses. This coverage maintained high market interest and reinforced expectations for a 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 date.
OpenAI confidentially files to go public, confirming IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed to go public on June 8, reinforcing market expectations for an IPO in 2026. This official step increased speculation and trading activity around the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI publicly confirms its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%26%
OpenAI officially announced that it had submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement, while cautioning that the final timing of the listing remains undecided.
OpenAI Publicly Confirms Confidential S-1 Submission to the SEC
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
OpenAI officially announced its confidential IPO filing, confirming active preparations but stating that the exact timing remains undecided. This announcement reinforced expectations of a late 2026 IPO, keeping the December 31, 2026 outcome high while earlier dates like June 30 fell to zero.
OpenAI files confidential IPO with SEC targeting $730-$850 billion valuation
September 30, 2026 rises to 50%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with an estimated valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, positioning itself as a leading AI company going public. This filing intensified market interest and speculation about a September or later 2026 IPO date.
OpenAI Officially Confirms Confidential IPO Filing with SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 55%18%
OpenAI officially confirmed its confidential IPO filing alongside rivals Anthropic and SpaceX, cementing expectations of a massive public debut by the end of 2026.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential S-1 filing for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%17%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, officially starting the IPO process but emphasizing no fixed timing. This announcement increased market optimism for a 2026 IPO, especially for later dates like December 31, 2026.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 with SEC
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%11%
OpenAI disclosed that it had submitted a confidential S‑1 to the SEC, confirming the start of the formal IPO process but stating the timing was still undecided. The announcement reinforced expectations of a late‑2026 listing and pushed the December‑31, 2026 probability back up while dragging near‑term June‑30 odds lower.
OpenAI files confidential IPO papers, eyes September listing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%10%
OpenAI confirmed confidential IPO filing with SEC, targeting a September 2026 public debut at an $850B+ valuation. The filing intensified market focus on a late 2026 IPO, though internal debates about readiness persisted.
OpenAI files confidential draft registration statement for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 59%4%
OpenAI officially filed a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public. The company emphasized that the timing remains fluid, but this filing increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, particularly for December 31, 2026.
OpenAI Officially Confirms Confidential S-1 IPO Filing with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 11%27%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%3%
OpenAI officially confirmed it had confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, a major milestone in its IPO process, but stated no IPO timeline was set, tempering expectations for an immediate public offering.
OpenAI IPO filing follows legal victory over Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%4%
A U.S. jury ruled against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the way for the IPO filing announced the same day, boosting market confidence in OpenAI's public offering prospects.
OpenAI files confidential draft S-1 with SEC targeting September 2026 IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 11%26%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. This reinforced expectations for a late 2026 IPO but market skepticism about timing and profitability persisted.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential S‑1 filing
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%17%
OpenAI publicly disclosed that it had confidentially submitted a draft S‑1 registration statement to the SEC. The announcement confirmed the filing and cemented expectations of a Q4 2026 listing, providing a modest lift to the December outcome while leaving earlier dates depressed.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork following Anthropic
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO shortly after its rival Anthropic, signaling a competitive race among AI companies to go public. The filing indicated a potential valuation over $850 billion and a public debut possibly as early as September 2026.
OpenAI confirms confidential S‑1 filing with the SEC on June 8
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%6%
OpenAI publicly confirmed it had submitted a confidential S‑1 to the SEC on June 8. The announcement coincided with a steep decline in market confidence as investors digested the slow‑moving regulatory process, pulling the Yes probability down to the low‑single‑digit range by late June.
OpenAI announces confidential S-1 filing but signals IPO may be delayed
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential S-1 filing on June 8, but CEO Sam Altman indicated the IPO might not happen soon, dampening market enthusiasm for near-term IPO dates and causing prices for June 30, 2026, and earlier dates to fall further.
OpenAI confirms confidential S‑1 filing with SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%53%
OpenAI announced on its blog that it had submitted a confidential S‑1 draft to the SEC, confirming the filing and stating the timing of a public offering was still undecided. The confirmation lifted uncertainty and drove the market’s December‑31‑2026 probability up sharply, while the June‑30‑2026 outcome collapsed to near‑zero.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reveals IPO could come within a year
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%13%
Sam Altman told employees that OpenAI could go public within a year after submitting a confidential IPO filing, emphasizing flexibility in timing. This statement supported market confidence in a 2026 or early 2027 IPO.
OpenAI IPO announcement intensifies AI investment race alongside Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI's IPO filing announcement came days after Anthropic's and just before SpaceX's expected IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech, which affected market pricing dynamics across all expiration dates.
OpenAI IPO filing highlights massive revenue and cash burn projections
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
The confidential IPO filing revealed OpenAI's projected 2026 revenue exceeding $25 billion but with a $27 billion cash burn, raising concerns about profitability and influencing market skepticism on earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI files for US IPO targeting up to $1 trillion valuation, IPO as early as September
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI filed for a US IPO with a target valuation up to $1 trillion and a potential IPO window starting in September 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, boosting December 31, 2026 prices and depressing earlier expiration outcomes.
OpenAI Officially Announces Confidential S-1 IPO Filing with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 75%4%
OpenAI officially announced it submitted a confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI publicly files for IPO, setting stage for highly anticipated market debut
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%1%
OpenAI publicly filed for its IPO on June 8, 2026, confirming plans for a late 2026 public offering and intensifying market focus on the company's valuation and financials, which briefly supported IPO optimism.
OpenAI officially files confidential S-1 prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%4%
OpenAI officially confirmed it submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC for its IPO. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 odds and crushed near-term contracts.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting Q4 2026
September 30, 2026 surges to 75%29%
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward a public offering potentially in late 2026. This filing initially boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI investment race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%25%
OpenAI filed to offer its stock on public markets shortly after rival Anthropic, signaling a competitive race to go public and increasing market focus on a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI officially announces confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%25%
OpenAI publicly confirmed it had confidentially filed for an IPO, reiterating that timing was undecided and could be delayed, which reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO but maintained uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI files confidential IPO registration with SEC amid competitive filings
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, joining rival Anthropic in the race to go public. The filing maintained market uncertainty about exact timing but confirmed serious IPO preparations for late 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms confidential S-1 filing but timing undecided
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar confirmed the confidential S-1 filing but stated the company had not decided on the IPO timing, tempering expectations for a near-term IPO and contributing to price volatility in earlier IPO date contracts.
OpenAI confirms June 8 confidential S‑1 filing, says timing undecided
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
OpenAI publicly confirmed that it had submitted a confidential draft S‑1 on June 8 but said the timing was undecided and “it may be a while.” The announcement reinforced later‑2026 expectations while simultaneously dampening near‑term dates, causing the “June 30, 2026” odds to fall to 0 % and the “December 31, 2026” odds to stay high.
OpenAI files for IPO following Anthropic as AI giants head to public markets
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%2%
OpenAI filed to offer its stock on public markets on June 8, 2026, just a week after Anthropic's filing and days before SpaceX's expected debut. The move confirmed expectations of a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026, market outcome while maintaining uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%6%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed that it had confidentially filed for an IPO, emphasizing that the timing was not yet decided but the filing gave them the option to go public sooner. This transparency helped stabilize market expectations and maintained moderate optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, officially moving toward a public offering with a target valuation near $1 trillion and a potential listing window from September to November 2026. This was the key catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward a higher implied probability of an IPO by year-end, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
FutureSearch: OpenAI IPO unlikely in 2026 despite S‑1 filing
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%7%
FutureSearch’s forecast highlighted that the confidential S‑1 filing did not set a date and projected a low probability of a 2026 IPO, nudging the market down to near‑zero for the June‑30 outcome.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 with the SEC
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 with the SEC, confirming the IPO process had officially begun. The filing triggered a brief rally in the July‑31 and August‑31 probabilities before the market re‑evaluated the timing uncertainty.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC, no set timeline
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%23%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC but stated no IPO timeline was set, indicating the company might remain private longer. This tempered market expectations and introduced caution about the IPO timing within 2026.
OpenAI Officially Confirms Confidential S-1 Submission to SEC
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%23%
OpenAI officially announced its confidential S-1 filing, confirming active preparations for a public debut but stating that the exact timing remains undecided.
OpenAI confidentially files updated S-1 paperwork amid market uncertainty
December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%24%
OpenAI filed updated confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC on June 8, 2026, but growing concerns about profitability and market conditions began to weigh on investor sentiment, leading to price declines in IPO market contracts.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing legal hurdle for IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%5%
A jury ruled against Elon Musk's lawsuit claiming OpenAI illegally converted from non-profit to for-profit, removing a major legal overhang and boosting confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI submits confidential draft S-1 to SEC
December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft S-1 filing to the SEC, reaffirming its IPO plans and maintaining market interest in a late 2026 public offering, particularly December 31, 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1, but IPO timing remains undecided
December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 registration statement on June 8, 2026, marking a formal step toward IPO. However, the company cautioned that timing was undecided and it "may be a while," reinforcing market expectations of a delayed IPO beyond mid-2026.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO amid AI sector race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 43%33%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking a formal step toward going public. The filing increased market activity but also introduced uncertainty about exact timing, as OpenAI stated it had not decided on timing yet.
OpenAI files confidential IPO, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in 2026 IPO race
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%10%
OpenAI submitted its confidential IPO filing on June 8, 2026, joining rival Anthropic and SpaceX in a competitive race to go public in late 2026, increasing market focus on a potential Q4 IPO and supporting higher probabilities for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing after Anthropic
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%3%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing, following rival Anthropic's similar move, reinforcing expectations of a late 2026 IPO and intensifying competition for investor capital in the AI sector.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO due to reporting readiness
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar prefers delaying the IPO to 2027 to ensure public company reporting readiness, casting doubt on a 2026 IPO and contributing to very low market prices for June 30 and July 31, 2026 IPO dates.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public debut amid SEC review process
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%3%
OpenAI is targeting a September 2026 IPO public debut, with the S-1 filing remaining confidential until shortly before the roadshow. Analysts note the possibility of a delay into early 2027 depending on SEC feedback, reflecting cautious market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI mulls delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s rocky debut
July 31, 2026 plunges to 1%25%
Yahoo reported that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 after SpaceX’s post‑IPO slump, raising doubts about a 2026 listing. The news drove a steep drop across the near‑term dates, especially July 31 2026 (price fell from 26 % to 1 %).
OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 submission, timing undecided
December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%29%
OpenAI publicly acknowledged submitting a confidential S-1 filing but stated it had not decided on IPO timing, suggesting the listing could be delayed. This tempered market enthusiasm, causing some price volatility.
No public S-1 filing or official IPO date confirmed by OpenAI
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
As of early June 2026, OpenAI had not publicly filed an S-1 registration statement nor announced an official IPO date, creating growing skepticism about near-term IPO completion. This lack of public confirmation contributed to sharp declines in market prices for earlier IPO dates.
No public OpenAI S-1 filing or official IPO date as of early June 2026
June 30, 2026 drops to 0%11%
Reports confirmed that OpenAI had not publicly filed an S-1 or announced an official IPO date by early June 2026, increasing market uncertainty and skepticism about a 2026 IPO, leading to sharp price declines for near-term IPO dates.
Market speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing amid Anthropic filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%7%
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, market speculation increased about OpenAI's IPO timing, with traders adjusting expectations and prices reflecting uncertainty but continued confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
AI giant Anthropic confidentially filed for its own U.S. IPO, edging ahead of OpenAI in the race to go public and intensifying market expectations for late 2026 listings.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Anthropic filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and highlighting the crowded AI IPO market expected in late 2026.
Rival AI Giant Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%10%
Anthropic's confidential filing intensified the race to go public, putting competitive pressure on OpenAI's timeline and capital market demand.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main rival, confidentially filed for its IPO, raising its valuation above OpenAI's and increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing, influencing market dynamics and investor sentiment.
Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO, intensifying AI‑IPO race
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing on June 1, 2026, intensified the AI‑IPO race and shifted market focus to later 2026 dates for OpenAI, pulling probability away from the early‑June outcome and toward September‑December windows.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1, ahead of OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 48%15%
Anthropic filed its confidential S‑1 a week before OpenAI, intensifying the AI IPO race. The competitive pressure reinforced expectations for a late‑2026 OpenAI IPO, contributing to higher prices for the December‑31‑2026 outcome.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Anthropic, OpenAI's chief rival, confidentially filed for an IPO, increasing competitive pressure and market speculation about OpenAI's own IPO timing.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, escalating AI IPO competition
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing on June 1 increased pressure on OpenAI, contributing to further declines in market confidence for near-term OpenAI IPO dates such as July 31 and August 31, 2026.
Rival Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Anthropic officially filed for its own IPO shortly after OpenAI's filing, intensifying the race for public capital among major AI firms.
Anthropic files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
Anthropic, OpenAI's chief rival, filed for a public stock offering, increasing pressure and market speculation on OpenAI's IPO timing. This competitive move contributed to market volatility and skepticism about near-term IPO dates for OpenAI.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus
Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying the competitive IPO race with OpenAI and impacting market expectations about the timing and valuation of both companies' public offerings.
Rival Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%8%
Anthropic submitted its own confidential S-1 filing, intensifying the race to the public markets and putting pressure on OpenAI's listing timeline.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI‑sector competition
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic, OpenAI’s chief rival, filed a confidential IPO registration. The news intensified competition for investor capital and spurred a sharp sell‑off in the July 31 and August 31 outcomes, driving those odds into single‑digit territory.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for US IPO, Edging Ahead of OpenAI
September 30, 2026 dips to 41%2%
Rival AI giant Anthropic submitted its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race to go public and shifting trader sentiment regarding OpenAI's relative timeline.
Anthropic confidentially files U.S. IPO, intensifying AI race
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing on June 1 heightened competitive pressure on OpenAI. Market commentary linked the filing to a modest pull‑back on the “July 31, 2026” and “August 31, 2026” odds, which fell sharply in the following days.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 43%12%
OpenAI's chief rival, Anthropic, filed confidentially for an IPO, putting pressure on OpenAI to accelerate its own public listing timeline.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
September 30, 2026 drops to 42%8%
Anthropic, a major AI competitor, filed confidentially for an IPO on June 1, 2026, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and influencing market sentiment about the timing and valuation of OpenAI's IPO. This event contributed to volatility and reassessment of earlier IPO date probabilities.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, surpassing OpenAI in valuation
September 30, 2026 drops to 32%6%
Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork with a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $730 billion valuation. This escalated the competitive pressure on OpenAI and influenced market expectations for late 2026 IPOs.
Anthropic confidentially files U.S. IPO paperwork
August 31, 2026 plunges to 7%39%
Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing was reported on June 1. The rival’s move intensified competition and caused a further drop in confidence for the August 31 and September 30 outcomes, as traders reassessed OpenAI’s timing advantage.
OpenAI launches $4 billion-backed Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new subsidiary with $4 billion capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale enterprise AI deployment. This operational scaling boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, lifting the September 30, 2026 outcome price temporarily.
Rival Anthropic files confidential S‑1, raising competition concerns
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Anthropic’s own confidential filing on June 1 intensified competition and shifted market focus toward later‑year IPO windows, pulling the "July 31" and "August 31" outcomes down to single‑digit levels.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI's financial challenges ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
By late May 2026, analysts highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and a $207 billion funding gap through 2030, raising concerns about IPO timing and valuation. This analysis contributed to market volatility and skepticism about earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
September 30, 2026 jumps to 30%5%
Reports that OpenAI was in talks with Citigroup and JPMorgan about IPO financing signaled progress toward a year‑end listing, nudging the “September 30, 2026” odds upward from 25 % to 30 % by June 10.
Anthropic raises $65 billion at $965 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%8%
Anthropic closed a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, overtaking OpenAI's $852 billion valuation. This intensified competition in the AI IPO race and influenced market expectations for both companies' public listings.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately urges IPO delay to 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%44%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing massive compute spending commitments and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal conflict with CEO Sam Altman introduced market skepticism, causing a decline in near-term IPO probabilities, especially for June and July 2026 dates.
OpenAI CFO signals internal concerns about IPO readiness and timing
September 30, 2026 plunges to 30%20%
Reports indicated that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's readiness for public reporting and the high cash burn rate, suggesting a possible delay of the IPO into 2027. This tempered market enthusiasm for earlier 2026 IPO dates, causing declines in those outcomes' prices.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires AI consulting firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company backed by $4 billion in capital and acquired UK-based AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale enterprise AI deployment capabilities. This move signaled operational scaling and readiness for a late 2026 IPO, supporting market confidence in December 31, 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by federal jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, which positively influenced market sentiment for a successful IPO.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 78%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The news lifted the “December 31, 2026” probability from the mid‑70s to 78 % (peak on June 8) and kept the market bullish through early June.
SpaceX files public S-1 IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
SpaceX publicly filed its IPO prospectus, increasing market attention on AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's, which contributed to volatility and shifts in IPO timing expectations.
SpaceX publicly files IPO prospectus, heightening AI IPO market focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 73%2%
SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus publicly on May 25, 2026, increasing market attention on AI-related IPOs including OpenAI's. This event influenced timing expectations and competitive positioning, reinforcing the likelihood of a later 2026 IPO for OpenAI.
SpaceX files for IPO, intensifying tech IPO competition
September 30, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
SpaceX's IPO filing in late May heightened competition among major tech IPOs, influencing investor appetite and adding pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing, affecting market pricing for September and December 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company to scale enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%42%
The launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro demonstrated OpenAI's operational scaling and enterprise focus, positively influencing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI faces intensified competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini
August 31, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
Market reports highlighted Anthropic's rising market share and Google Gemini's growth, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI. This competition contributed to declining market confidence in earlier IPO dates like August and July 2026, reflected in price drops for those outcomes.
Anthropic closes funding round at $900 billion valuation, intensifying AI IPO race
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
Anthropic's funding round at a $900 billion valuation heightened competition in the AI IPO space, impacting market sentiment and causing declines in prices for earlier IPO dates like August 31 and July 31, 2026, as investors reassessed OpenAI's timing and prospects.
Market reacts to Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, intensifying AI IPO race
September 30, 2026 plunges to 29%21%
Anthropic filed confidentially for its own IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI and causing market volatility. This increased skepticism about earlier OpenAI IPO dates, contributing to declines in confidence for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files draft registration statement with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming its intent to pursue an IPO likely in late 2026. This filing increased market confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO and pushed up probabilities for later 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 filing, targeting a late 2026 public listing. This solidified the timeline for late 2026 and collapsed the odds for earlier summer dates.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%17%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO registration statement with the SEC, officially starting the IPO process. This confidential filing allowed OpenAI to prepare for a public offering potentially in Q4 2026, boosting market confidence in a late-year IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 IPO prospectus with SEC
December 31, 2026 jumps to 75%5%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S‑1 registration statement with the SEC, giving the firm the option to go public. The filing confirmation reinforced expectations of a Q4 2026 IPO and further lifted the December outcome while keeping the early‑date odds depressed.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal.
Leak suggests OpenAI’s draft S‑1 targeting Q4 2026
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
A leak of the draft S‑1 on May 22 suggested OpenAI was targeting a Q4 2026 listing. The rumor pushed market prices for the July‑31 and September‑30 outcomes lower as investors adjusted to a later possible IPO window.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
OpenAI submitted its confidential draft registration statement to the SEC, targeting a late 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 78%24%
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC, officially beginning the IPO process. The filing was confidential, allowing OpenAI to work privately with regulators before a public announcement, and targeted a valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%41%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, signaling a formal step toward a public offering potentially as early as September 2026, boosting market optimism for a late-year IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026 at a valuation between $730 billion and $1 trillion. This marked a significant step toward going public and increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting Q4 2026 listing
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, signaling a strong intent to go public in late 2026 and causing a surge in market expectations for the IPO within the year.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, officially starting the IPO process and targeting a public listing in late 2026. This filing confirmed the IPO plans and boosted market confidence for the December 31, 2026, outcome.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, spurring rivalry with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Tech industry commentary noted that Anthropic had filed its own confidential IPO paperwork a week earlier, intensifying competition and briefly nudging the “September 30 2026” probability upward before the market refocused on OpenAI’s own filing.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
September 30, 2026 plunges to 6%40%
OpenAI officially filed its confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a public listing in Q4 2026 with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This formal filing marked a critical step toward the IPO and increased market focus on a late 2026 debut.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO registration with SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%43%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft registration statement (S-1) to the SEC, confirming the start of the IPO process but stating timing was undecided, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO while reducing near-term expectations.
OpenAI engages Citigroup, JPMorgan for IPO discussions
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%3%
Reports that OpenAI was in discussions with Citigroup and JPMorgan about IPO financing reinforced belief in a year‑end offering, causing the “December 31 2026” probability to climb to a record 78 % before a pull‑back on June 11.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced strong revenue growth, reporting $6 billion in Q1 2026, supporting its valuation and IPO prospects, positively impacting market confidence for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI says it will confidentially file IPO paperwork in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
OpenAI announced it would file a confidential IPO registration statement within days, confirming the filing timeline and targeting a September 2026 listing. The news pushed market confidence in a late‑2026 IPO, lifting the December‑31, 2026 probability sharply.
OpenAI Prepares to File Confidentially for IPO in Coming Weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO filing, laying the groundwork for one of the largest tech listings in history.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO, working with major banks. This formal step increased market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices for later 2026 IPO dates.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft IPO prospectus. This sparked a massive shift in market expectations, driving up the probability of a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI eyes September IPO with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 debut (with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) added upside to the “August 31 2026” and “September 30 2026” outcomes, driving those odds up briefly before later fading.
OpenAI to confidentially file IPO prospectus by May 22
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%40%
CNBC and Axios reported that OpenAI was preparing a confidential S‑1 filing as early as May 22. The news sent the “December 31 2026” outcome above 70 % and lifted the “July 31 2026” odds sharply.
OpenAI aims for September IPO amid competition and market conditions
September 30, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Sources indicated OpenAI was aiming to go public as early as September 2026, working on a draft IPO prospectus, which increased market speculation about a third-quarter IPO date.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 drops to 41%9%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO filing, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This shifted market interest heavily toward later 2026 dates.
OpenAI preparing to confidentially file IPO prospectus imminently
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
Multiple major news outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus within days, signaling strong market anticipation for a 2026 IPO and boosting prices for later 2026 IPO dates.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026, causing summer timelines to collapse.
OpenAI rejects Elon Musk’s lawsuit, clearing path for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
OpenAI successfully defended against a lawsuit from Elon Musk alleging deviation from its nonprofit mission, removing a major legal obstacle to its IPO. This legal victory boosted market confidence in the September 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing targeting September debut
September 30, 2026 rises to 50%4%
Reports from multiple sources indicated OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential IPO prospectus aiming for a public debut as soon as September 2026, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. This raised market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI IPO Preparations Push Near-Term Timelines Down
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
Reports of a September 2026 target date and internal debates about reporting readiness caused the probability of earlier IPO dates (July and August) to plummet.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This shifted expectations away from mid-2026 dates.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidential IPO filing preparation
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%35%
News that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus sparked market optimism about an imminent public offering, causing a sharp increase in IPO-related outcome prices.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing amid competition with Anthropic
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file for an IPO in the coming weeks, increasing market speculation about a 2026 public listing. The timing was seen as strategic alongside rival Anthropic's IPO plans.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus soon
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
OpenAI announced preparations to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut in late 2026, likely September. This news increased market optimism for a Q4 IPO, lifting probabilities for later 2026 dates.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO plans, sparking market speculation
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI confidentially filed draft IPO paperwork with the SEC, signaling serious intent to go public possibly in late 2026. This news caused a spike in market prices for IPO outcomes, reflecting increased trader confidence in an upcoming announcement.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
Media outlets reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential S-1 filing, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI Prepares to File Confidentially for IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 47%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare confidential IPO paperwork, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI September IPO Plans Collapse Odds for Summer Listings
August 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
The revelation of a targeted September 2026 IPO date immediately crushed the probability of earlier summer outcomes, such as July and August.
OpenAI preparing to file for IPO in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%43%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for later IPO dates, especially December 31, 2026.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing, signaling potential late 2026 public debut
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%1%
OpenAI announced preparations to file confidentially for an IPO, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, indicating a possible public offering in late 2026. This news initially supported market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing soon
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%25%
Multiple news outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes. This marked a key step toward a public offering.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%44%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 with the SEC in the coming weeks, confirming that an IPO filing was imminent. The news pushed market expectations toward a late‑2026 listing, sparking a sharp rise in the probability of the December 31 2026 outcome (price rose from ~30 % to a peak of 74 %).
SpaceX files public IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%42%
SpaceX publicly filed its IPO prospectus, disclosing financials and targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut. This event heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, including OpenAI's, influencing timing expectations and competitive positioning in the market.
OpenAI said to be preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
Multiple outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 within days. The news triggered a sharp swing upward for the "December 31, 2026" contract (from ~27 % to ~70 %) and a simultaneous drop for the near‑term dates, as traders reassessed the likelihood of a September debut.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file for IPO in coming weeks
September 30, 2026 surges to 75%25%
Reports confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a public debut possibly as soon as September 2026. This filing preparation significantly increased market optimism about the IPO timing.
Elon Musk's Federal Lawsuit Against OpenAI Dismissed by Jury
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%45%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for the company's IPO plans.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, signaling the start of formal IPO preparations and sparking increased market speculation about a late 2026 public offering. This news caused a rise in market prices for later IPO dates while reducing near-term expectations.
OpenAI prepares to file for IPO in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%22%
On May 20, 2026, multiple credible sources reported that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO soon, signaling the start of the public offering process and increasing market expectations for an IPO in 2026. This news caused a significant price increase for later IPO dates.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO paperwork soon
September 30, 2026 surges to 53%16%
The Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare confidential IPO filings, targeting a public debut in late 2026. This news caused a temporary price increase reflecting renewed optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Prepares Confidential IPO Filing Targeting September Debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 13%33%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026. This news made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing July and August options to collapse.
OpenAI preparing to file confidential IPO prospectus in coming weeks
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%47%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file an IPO prospectus within weeks. This was the first public hint of a filing and lifted optimism for a late‑2026 listing, pushing the December 31 2026 outcome up from the mid‑20s to over 70 % while dragging the near‑term July and August odds sharply lower.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus, targeting September debut
Multiple sources including CNBC, Reuters, and The New York Times reported OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, aiming for a public debut in September 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters.
SpaceX IPO filing heightens competition among major tech IPOs
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
SpaceX confidentially filed for its IPO, increasing competition in the tech IPO market and indirectly impacting OpenAI's IPO timing expectations. This contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's near-term IPO prospects, causing price drops for earlier IPO dates.
Reports of September IPO Target Push Out Odds for Earlier Summer Dates
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
The revelation that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 public debut made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing the July and August contract prices to collapse.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
Reports from CNBC and other media outlets revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a late 2026 listing.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing imminent
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%47%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, with filings possibly as soon as that week. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for IPO dates in late 2026, especially December 31, 2026, as traders anticipated a public offering soon.
OpenAI IPO Reports Collapse Shorter-Term July and August Targets
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
With reports indicating OpenAI was targeting a September or Q4 2026 public debut, shorter-term options like July 31 and August 31 collapsed as they became highly unlikely.
Reports emerge that OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Media reports revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%16%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman. The legal victory removed a major dispute that could have delayed an IPO, boosting confidence in a late‑2026 offering and lifting the December‑31‑2026 outcome.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI prepares confidential S‑1 filing ahead of IPO
June 30, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was preparing to file a confidential S‑1 in the coming weeks, cementing the filing as a concrete step toward an IPO and spurring a sharp rise in the June‑30 market probability.
SpaceX files S‑1 as OpenAI readies its confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
The same day SpaceX filed its S‑1, media highlighted OpenAI’s imminent filing, creating a perception that OpenAI was being eclipsed by SpaceX’s high‑profile debut. This contributed to the steep negative swing for the September 30 outcome on May 21‑22.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing in coming weeks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Multiple outlets (NYT, Reuters, CNBC) reported that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file an IPO prospectus in the coming weeks. The news introduced uncertainty about the exact filing date, prompting a sharp decline in the market’s confidence for the earlier‑dated outcomes (June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30).
OpenAI aims for speedy IPO filing soon, targeting September debut
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Sources confirmed OpenAI's plan to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, aiming for a September public debut, intensifying market expectations and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic and SpaceX.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, positively impacting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Federal jury throws out Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%44%
A federal jury in Oakland dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle and prompting analysts to raise the probability of an IPO before the end of 2026. The market’s confidence in a later‑dated IPO surged, lifting the "December 31, 2026" outcome from the high‑20s to over 70 %.
Jury tosses Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%41%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI on May 19. The legal win was cited as a positive catalyst, briefly lifting confidence for the December outcome before the May 20 filing reports reversed the trend.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%46%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The dismissal was noted in market commentary that same day and contributed to a sharp jump in the “December 31, 2026” odds on May 21.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%48%
A federal jury threw out Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud and opening the window for IPO preparations.
Legal victory for OpenAI removes existential court challenge
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI fended off a major court challenge, removing a significant legal risk and boosting confidence in its IPO prospects, contributing to positive market moves.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI on statute of limitations grounds
A federal jury ruled that Elon Musk filed his lawsuit against OpenAI too late, dismissing all claims and removing a major legal overhang that had complicated OpenAI's IPO plans. This cleared the path for OpenAI to proceed with its IPO preparations, positively impacting market sentiment for a late 2026 public offering.
Federal Court Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
A federal court dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit challenging OpenAI's transition to a for-profit structure, removing a major legal obstacle and paving the way for an accelerated IPO timeline.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
A California jury ruled that Elon Musk filed his lawsuit against OpenAI too late, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal increased market confidence in OpenAI's ability to proceed with an IPO.
Federal Jury Rules in Favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk Lawsuit
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
A federal jury decided in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk's lawsuit due to the statute of limitations. This cleared a major legal hurdle, boosting confidence in a 2026 IPO timeline.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 42%15%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle to a public offering. The verdict sparked a sharp jump in market confidence for an IPO by mid‑2026.
Federal jury dismisses Musk lawsuit, clearing IPO path for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 78%22%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing the last major legal obstacle to an IPO. The verdict was reported on May 20 and caused a further boost in the market, pushing the Yes odds to a peak of 78 % on June 8.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its executives, removing a significant legal obstacle that had cast uncertainty over OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal boosted market confidence in OpenAI's ability to proceed with its IPO as planned.
California Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%43%
A California jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI due to the statute of limitations, removing a major legal obstacle and clearing the path for OpenAI's anticipated IPO.
Jury rules against Elon Musk in high-profile lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A federal jury in Oakland ruled that Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI were barred by the statute of limitations, clearing a major legal obstacle for OpenAI's potential $1 trillion IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%45%
A federal jury in Oakland dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI on statute of limitations grounds, removing a major legal cloud that had threatened to derail or delay the company's IPO plans.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI targets Q4 2026 for public listing
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
Reports confirm OpenAI has not filed IPO paperwork as of mid-May 2026 but is targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, consistent with market pricing showing low probability for earlier IPO dates. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, particularly December 31, 2026.
Multi-state coalition urges SEC to scrutinize OpenAI IPO filings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 55%19%
A coalition of 10 state attorneys general called on the SEC to apply stringent scrutiny to OpenAI's potential IPO filings, citing concerns about investor protections and corporate governance. This regulatory pressure introduced uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm for an earlier IPO date.
Attorney General coalition urges SEC scrutiny of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
A coalition of 10 state attorneys general called on the SEC to apply stringent scrutiny to OpenAI's potential IPO filings, citing concerns about investor protections and business practices. This regulatory pressure introduced uncertainty and risk for the IPO timeline.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman testifies in lawsuit brought by Elon Musk
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%4%
Sam Altman defended OpenAI against Musk's claims in court, addressing accusations related to the company's for-profit conversion. The high-profile trial added legal risk and uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI has not filed S-1 registration statement as of mid-May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Despite strong fundraising and preparations, OpenAI had not filed the required S-1 paperwork with the SEC by mid-May 2026, indicating potential delays and contributing to market price declines for near-term IPO outcomes.
OpenAI still has no public S‑1 filing as of mid‑May
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Analysts noted that OpenAI still had not filed a public S‑1 as of 13 May 2026, confirming that the IPO timeline remained uncertain. This reinforced market doubts and pushed the June 30 2026 probability down from 3 % on 4 May to 2 % on 10 May.
No OpenAI S-1 filing as of mid-May 2026 amid IPO speculation
By May 13, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement, despite ongoing speculation about a late 2026 IPO. This absence of formal filing reinforced market doubts about a June 30, 2026, IPO, keeping prices low for that outcome.
States urge SEC to scrutinize OpenAI’s IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%
A coalition of ten state attorneys general asked the SEC to scrutinize OpenAI’s prospective IPO, introducing regulatory risk and pulling the “June 30 2026” confidence down to near‑zero.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI valuation and revenue continue to grow
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of mid-May 2026, OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork despite growing valuation and revenue, maintaining uncertainty about IPO timing and contributing to low market prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
No S-1 filing by OpenAI as of mid-May 2026 despite IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
By May 13, 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, despite ongoing rumors of a 2026 IPO. This absence of official filing reinforced market skepticism about a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to low prices for June 30, 2026 outcome.
Anthropic valuation overtakes OpenAI in $30 bn fundraising talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic was in talks to raise at least $30 billion at a valuation over $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion mark. The news heightened the perceived competitive pressure on OpenAI’s IPO timing, nudging the Dec 31 2026 probability down from 32 % on 1 May to 28 % on 7 May.
Anthropic Raises $30 Billion, Surpassing OpenAI Valuation, Increasing Competitive Pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic's talks to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, intensifying competitive risks and dampening OpenAI IPO market sentiment.
Bloomberg reports Anthropic's $30 billion raise at $900 billion valuation, intensifying IPO race
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $900 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI's valuation and creating competitive pressure. This development influenced market sentiment by highlighting the competitive IPO landscape and possibly delaying OpenAI's listing.
Anthropic valuation surpasses OpenAI, intensifying IPO competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Bloomberg reported Anthropic in talks to raise $30 billion at a valuation exceeding $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion. This heightened competitive pressure and uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing, contributing to further price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI creates $4 B Deployment Company, acquires Tomoro to scale enterprise AI
September 30, 2026 jumps to 45%7%
Reuters reported OpenAI’s launch of a new $4 billion‑backed Deployment Company and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro, signalling readiness for enterprise scaling and supporting a later‑2026 IPO, which helped lift the September 30 2026 probability after a brief dip.
OpenAI forms OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
In May, OpenAI launched a new joint venture with $4 billion investment and acquired Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Subsidiary and Acquires Consulting Firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and the acquisition of Tomoro to accelerate enterprise AI adoption. This strategic expansion signaled operational scaling ahead of its eventual public debut.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in investment and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Subsidiary and Acquires Consulting Firm Tomoro
August 31, 2026 plunges to 5%41%
OpenAI announced the creation of the OpenAI Deployment Company backed by $4 billion in capital and its acquisition of UK-based consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI creates $4 billion deployment unit and buys Tomoro
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reuters announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion seed investment and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro, signalling a serious push toward enterprise revenue and public‑market readiness, which helped sustain the market’s bullish stance.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment unit and acquires AI consulting firm Tomoro
OpenAI announced the creation of a new company backed by $4 billion to help organizations deploy AI systems and acquired Tomoro, an AI consulting firm, signaling operational scaling ahead of a public listing. This move increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, particularly lifting the September 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI Launches OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 Billion Investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion and agreed to acquire consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI services company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion initial investment to accelerate enterprise AI adoption, acquiring AI consulting firm Tomoro. This strategic move highlighted OpenAI's focus on scaling AI deployment but did not include an IPO filing, keeping the public listing timeline uncertain.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment company and acquires Tomoro
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI announced the launch of a $4 billion deployment subsidiary and the acquisition of AI‑consulting firm Tomoro. The move was interpreted as a push to grow enterprise revenue before an IPO, nudging the market for the July 31 and August 31 outcomes slightly lower as investors questioned cash‑burn.
OpenAI launches new subsidiary with $4 billion investment to boost enterprise AI
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion investment and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro, signaling operational scaling ahead of its eventual public debut and supporting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Launches New Corporate Deployment Unit with $4 Billion Investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company, backed by $4 billion in capital, and agreed to acquire consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment. This operational scaling boosted market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches $4 bn deployment unit, acquires Tomoro
September 30, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
OpenAI announced the launch of the $4 billion‑backed OpenAI Deployment Company and its acquisition of Tomoro. The move signalled operational scaling ahead of a public listing, boosting confidence in a late‑2026 IPO and lifting the September‑30 probability before it later fell as the June‑8 filing clarified timing.
OpenAI Launches $4 Billion Deployment Company and Acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new subsidiary backed by $4 billion in capital and agreed to acquire UK-based AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale up enterprise AI deployment capabilities ahead of its public listing.
OpenAI Launches Deployment Company with $4 Billion Investment and Acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company alongside the acquisition of applied AI consulting firm Tomoro. This strategic expansion signaled operational scaling and enterprise readiness, boosting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI forms new joint venture and acquires AI consulting firm Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
OpenAI announced the formation of OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion investment and acquired Tomoro to scale AI deployment capabilities, signaling operational expansion ahead of IPO and supporting confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
Congressional investigation and employee secondary sales raise IPO risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reports emerged of a formal Congressional investigation into CEO Sam Altman's investments and $6.6 billion in employee secondary share sales, increasing regulatory and governance risks ahead of the IPO. This contributed to further market price declines.
OpenAI launches new AI deployment company with $4 billion investment and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%40%
OpenAI formed the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in capital and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment capabilities, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, reflecting cost-cutting and strategic focus ahead of the IPO, which influenced investor sentiment and market pricing.
No official OpenAI IPO filing or date announced by mid-May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Despite strong revenue growth and structural changes, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date by May 10, 2026, causing market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome to decline to near 2%.
CFO Sarah Friar warns of possible 2027 IPO delay
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
CFO Sarah Friar hinted internally that the IPO might be delayed to 2027, causing a modest drop in the “June 30, 2026” odds from 4 % to 1 % by early June.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid rival Anthropic's progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%
Market sentiment turned more cautious as rival Anthropic pursued its own IPO plans for late 2026, and OpenAI's lack of filing fueled doubts about a 2026 IPO, reflected in declining market prices for June and December 2026 outcomes.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal overhang
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a significant legal risk that had clouded OpenAI’s IPO prospects, positively influencing market sentiment.
Concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability and missed revenue targets reported
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI missing internal revenue and user growth targets, with CFO Friar privately warning about the risk of not covering massive data center contract costs. These financial concerns dampened market enthusiasm for a near-term IPO, reflected in declining prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Alongside the IPO filing announcement, CEO Sam Altman published a post emphasizing AI's transformative potential and the company's strategic considerations, reinforcing the IPO's significance but also the complexity of timing decisions.
No official OpenAI IPO filing or date announced as of early May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
By early May 2026, despite strong private funding and market speculation, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an official IPO date, causing a decline in market confidence for near-term IPO outcomes, particularly June 30, 2026.
OpenAI Has No Public S-1 Filing or Confirmed IPO Date as of Early May
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Despite strong revenue and valuation, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date by early May, reinforcing market doubts about a 2026 IPO and contributing to price declines for later IPO dates.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic shift to focus resources ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was interpreted as a preparatory step for the IPO, but did not immediately boost market prices for any specific IPO date.
OpenAI CFO warns company may not be ready for 2026 IPO due to spending
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
In early May 2026, CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned colleagues that OpenAI might not be ready for a 2026 IPO if compute spending continues to outpace revenue, dampening market expectations for a near-term public offering.
No confirmed IPO date as OpenAI focuses on private funding and growth
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO or announced a date, continuing to raise private capital and grow revenues, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
OpenAI officially confirmed submitting a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking a formal step toward a potential IPO. The company emphasized that timing remains undecided and the IPO may be delayed due to operational priorities, causing mixed market reactions.
OpenAI has no public S-1 or ticker as of early May 2026, IPO date remains unconfirmed
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Despite extensive preparations and a record funding round, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced a public ticker by May 6, 2026. This absence of formal IPO steps reinforced market skepticism about a 2026 listing, reflected in low prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
No IPO filing yet; OpenAI valuation at $852 billion after latest funding
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 for IPO despite high valuation and revenue growth, causing market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome to plummet to 2%, reflecting skepticism about a mid-2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO privately suggests delaying IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar recommended postponing the IPO to 2027, citing the need to control spending and meet public company reporting standards. This dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, contributing to further price declines.
No IPO filing or date announced despite market speculation
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO nor announced a date, despite ongoing rumors and market speculation. This lack of concrete progress led to further declines in IPO market prices, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Reportedly Advocates Delaying IPO to 2027 Over Spending Concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested pushing the IPO timeline from 2026 to 2027, citing massive compute spending commitments and public reporting readiness, which severely dampened 2026 IPO expectations.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, signaling IPO intent but financial hurdles remain
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation removed structural barriers to going public, but internal reports highlighted mounting financial and competitive challenges, reinforcing doubts about a 2026 IPO and contributing to market price declines.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI IPO preparations but notes hurdles
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%5%
Analysis from Octagon AI emphasized OpenAI's structural changes and financial hurdles ahead of an IPO, with no confirmed date but expectations for a late 2026 listing. This contributed to declining market prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting increased uncertainty.
OpenAI completes Public Benefit Corporation conversion and revises Microsoft deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
OpenAI converted to a Public Benefit Corporation and renegotiated its Microsoft partnership to reduce structural risks ahead of an IPO. While these moves support a future listing, they also highlighted the complexity and delayed the IPO timeline, contributing to market uncertainty.
OpenAI faces competitive and financial hurdles ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%1%
An analysis highlighted mounting financial and competitive challenges for OpenAI as it prepares for its IPO, including intense rivalry with Anthropic and the need for substantial capital investment. This tempered investor enthusiasm, contributing to a decline in the market's probability pricing for a 2026 IPO.
Reports Reveal OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Privately Warned Company Is Not Ready for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar privately warned colleagues that OpenAI missed internal targets and may need to delay its IPO to 2027, causing a sharp drop in the probability of a 2026 listing.
OpenAI CFO urges 2027 IPO delay over revenue misses and $600 B compute spend
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
TechTimes reported that CFO Sarah Friar urged delaying the IPO to 2027 because of missed revenue targets and a $600 billion compute commitment, causing the market’s confidence to wobble and the contract price to fall toward the low‑end of its range.
OpenAI’s PBC conversion and new Microsoft deal remove structural IPO hurdle
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%24%
Octagon AI reported that OpenAI’s conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and a revised Microsoft partnership removed a key structural barrier, pushing market odds for an IPO announcement to near‑100 % and lifting the December‑31 contract to its peak.
OpenAI completes conversion to Public Benefit Corporation, easing IPO structural risks
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%1%
OpenAI finalized its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation, a legal structure facilitating a public listing while maintaining its mission. This structural change addressed key risks and was seen as a positive step toward an eventual IPO, though no filing or date was announced yet.
OpenAI faces financial and competitive hurdles despite IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
An analysis on May 4, 2026, highlighted OpenAI's structural changes and IPO preparations but noted mounting financial and competitive challenges. This likely contributed to further market caution and price declines for the December 31, 2026, outcome as investors reassessed risks.
OpenAI completes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%1%
OpenAI announced a massive private funding round, raising $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, underscoring strong financial backing but no IPO filing yet. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, causing a decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price as the market awaited official filings.
OpenAI faces mounting financial and competitive hurdles ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's ongoing losses, competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google, and internal challenges, raising doubts about IPO readiness and contributing to market price declines.
Kalshi market prices near 100% probability for OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Kalshi prediction market contracts for an OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026, reached maximum value, reflecting strong market consensus early in the year, though no IPO announcement occurred by that date, leading to later price adjustments.
OpenAI CFO pushes to delay IPO to 2027 amid financial and operational concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing heavy spending, organizational challenges, and revenue growth concerns. This internal conflict with CEO Altman introduced market skepticism, contributing to a decline in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome price.
OpenAI completes PBC conversion and revises Microsoft deal, targets late 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
On May 4, 2026, OpenAI completed its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation and renegotiated its Microsoft partnership to reduce risks for public investors. The company targeted a late 2026 IPO, but internal concerns about readiness persisted, keeping market probabilities low.
OpenAI raises $122 B in private round, valuation hits $852 B
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%41%
OpenAI disclosed a $122 billion private funding round at an $852 billion valuation, underscoring deep cash resources but still lacking a public filing. The news sparked a brief dip in the December‑31‑2026 probability as investors awaited a concrete IPO step.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Reportedly Pushes to Delay IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
Reports surfaced detailing a direct clash between CFO Sarah Friar and CEO Sam Altman, with Friar privately advocating to delay the IPO to 2027 due to rigorous public reporting standards and heavy spending commitments.
Reports of OpenAI missing revenue targets raise IPO doubts
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI missed multiple revenue targets and user growth goals in early 2026, raising concerns about its ability to fund future compute contracts and meet public company standards. This news negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term IPO.
Reports emerge CFO wants to delay OpenAI IPO to 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Anonymous reports indicated CFO Sarah Friar prefers delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns and cash burn, contrasting CEO Altman's push for a 2026 IPO. This internal tension contributed to market price declines for mid-2026 IPO outcomes.
Elon Musk's trial against OpenAI begins, seeking board changes and PBC restructure reversal
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
The trial initiated by Elon Musk against OpenAI began, with Musk seeking $130 billion in damages, removal of key executives, and reversal of the October 2025 Public Benefit Corporation restructure. This legal uncertainty added risk to OpenAI's IPO prospects, pressuring market prices downward.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets, raising IPO doubts
August 31, 2026 plunges to 4%42%
Reports revealed OpenAI missed multiple internal revenue targets and its goal of one billion weekly ChatGPT users, raising concerns about its ability to meet future compute contracts and public company standards. This negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term IPO.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman in a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and was a positive catalyst for the IPO market.
Elon Musk testifies in lawsuit against OpenAI, adding legal uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Elon Musk took the stand in a lawsuit alleging OpenAI defrauded him, seeking $130 billion in damages and board changes. This legal dispute added execution risk and uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO timeline, negatively impacting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI reportedly missed revenue and user growth targets, raising IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%7%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets, sparking concerns among company leaders about its ability to meet public company reporting standards and support future contracts. This dampened market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI begins, seeking to unwind for-profit structure
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
The Musk v. Altman trial started, with Musk seeking $130 billion in damages and removal of key OpenAI executives, threatening the company's corporate form. This legal overhang added uncertainty to the IPO timeline and negatively impacted market confidence.
Microsoft and OpenAI end exclusivity deal allowing OpenAI to court Amazon and others
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated their agreement, ending Microsoft's exclusive rights to sell OpenAI's AI models. This enabled OpenAI to expand enterprise partnerships, improving its market position ahead of the IPO but also reflecting strategic shifts amid antitrust scrutiny.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership to remove exclusive cloud terms
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
The companies updated their partnership, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and restructuring revenue-sharing mechanics, making OpenAI easier to value as a standalone business.
Elon Musk lawsuit trial against OpenAI begins, adding legal uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
The trial over Elon Musk's lawsuit challenging OpenAI's for-profit restructuring began in late April 2026, creating legal risks that may affect investor confidence and IPO timing.
Elon Musk lawsuit trial begins against OpenAI, raising IPO uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
The trial filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI started, seeking to unwind the company's for-profit structure and remove key executives. This legal overhang introduced significant uncertainty about the IPO timeline and prospects, contributing to a decline in market confidence for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI and Microsoft Restructure Partnership with Revenue Share Cap
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft amended their partnership to cap revenue share payments through 2030, a move analysts noted cleans up OpenAI's corporate structure ahead of a potential IPO.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI and Microsoft announced an amended partnership agreement ending Microsoft's exclusive commercial license to OpenAI's technology, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider. This strategic shift indicated OpenAI's independence and readiness for public markets, influencing market sentiment for a late 2026 IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI end exclusive cloud deal, enabling broader partnerships
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft restructured their partnership, ending exclusivity and allowing OpenAI to serve products on other cloud providers like AWS and Google Cloud. This strategic move aimed to expand OpenAI's enterprise reach ahead of its IPO, impacting market expectations for its growth potential.
Reports reveal OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar wants to delay IPO to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%12%
The Wall Street Journal reported that CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO to 2027, warning that the company is not operationally ready, which severely dampened expectations for a 2026 listing.
Elon Musk's Lawsuit Trial Against OpenAI Begins in Oakland
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%14%
The trial initiated by Elon Musk seeking $130 billion in damages and the unwinding of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corporation restructure began, creating significant legal uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO prospects and contributing to market price declines.
Microsoft and OpenAI Renegotiate Partnership to End Exclusivity
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%12%
Microsoft and OpenAI altered their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to sell its models to rivals like Amazon and Google. This move was aimed at boosting OpenAI's enterprise business and easing antitrust scrutiny ahead of planned IPOs.
Microsoft revises partnership terms with OpenAI
July 31, 2026 rises to 3%1%
Microsoft announced a revised partnership that made OpenAI’s financials easier to value, briefly raising confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO and moving the “July 31, 2026” probability from 3 % to 4 % (the market’s lowest‑point swing).
WSJ reports OpenAI missed early 2026 revenue and user targets, CFO warns on IPO readiness
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%7%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal targets for revenue and weekly active users in early 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar warning colleagues that the company was "not ready" for a 2026 IPO. This news increased market doubts about a 2026 listing, contributing to price declines.
OpenAI and Microsoft end exclusive partnership and revenue sharing
OpenAI and Microsoft renegotiated their partnership, ending Microsoft's exclusivity and capping revenue share payments. This gave OpenAI more flexibility to work with other cloud providers, potentially strengthening its enterprise business ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI CFO reportedly suggests delaying IPO to 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar privately recommended postponing the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns, causing market skepticism and price declines for earlier IPO dates like June 30, 2026.
OpenAI and Microsoft cap revenue share payments amid partnership strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments through 2030, indicating some strain in their partnership. This development raised questions about OpenAI's financial strategy ahead of an IPO, contributing to market caution.
Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI missed revenue targets; CFO expresses IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
The Wall Street Journal on April 27, 2026, reported that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets early in 2026. CFO Sarah Friar privately warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO, intensifying doubts and contributing to market price drops.
OpenAI misses revenue and user targets, CFO warns company not ready for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user goals, and CFO Sarah Friar privately warned colleagues that the company was "not ready" for a 2026 IPO. This news heightened concerns about execution risk and led to a notable price drop in the market.
OpenAI revises Microsoft partnership with capped revenue share
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments in late April, clarifying financial arrangements and reducing structural risks ahead of IPO preparations, which influenced market confidence.
Reports confirm OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Multiple financial news outlets reported that OpenAI is preparing for a blockbuster IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion. Despite strong revenue growth and major bank advisors, no official IPO filing had been made, leading to cautious market sentiment and a slight price decline.
Reports highlight CFO concerns about IPO readiness and spending risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%12%
In late April 2026, reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, causing market skepticism and price declines.
OpenAI IPO expected in Q4 2026, no filing yet
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
On April 26, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork but was targeting a Q4 2026 public listing. This tempered market expectations for a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to price declines for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes as investors adjusted timelines.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO could occur as late as Q4 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
An article noted OpenAI had not filed IPO paperwork but could go public as soon as Q4 2026, with a valuation near $852 billion. This tempered earlier market optimism for a mid-2026 IPO, contributing to a decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price and a drop in confidence for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI IPO expected as soon as Q4 2026, no filing yet
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
Reports indicated OpenAI could go public as soon as Q4 2026, with a recent funding round valuing the company at $852 billion. However, no IPO paperwork had been filed by late April, which tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to a price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI still hasn’t filed IPO paperwork, still eyeing Q4 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Reports on April 26 confirmed OpenAI had not yet filed an IPO prospectus and was still targeting a Q4 2026 listing. The news cooled expectations for an early 2026 IPO, pushing the market’s probability for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes sharply lower.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets late 2026 IPO but CFO warns company may not be ready
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's target for a late 2026 IPO, but CFO Sarah Friar privately warned that the company might not be ready for a 2026 listing due to high compute spending and revenue concerns. This increased market skepticism, causing a price drop for 2026 IPO outcomes.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $1 trillion IPO target amid financial and competitive pressures
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
On April 23, 2026, Reuters reported OpenAI targeting a $1 trillion IPO valuation but facing mounting losses and competition from Anthropic and Google Gemini. CFO Friar warned internally that the company might not be ready for a 2026 IPO, causing market skepticism and price declines.
Cerebras files S-1 with $20B OpenAI deal, highlighting OpenAI's capital needs
Cerebras Systems filed its S-1 on April 17, 2026, revealing a $20 billion multi-year deal with OpenAI for AI inference capacity. This underscored OpenAI's massive capital requirements, reinforcing the strategic necessity of an IPO to fund infrastructure spending.
Cerebras files S-1 for mid-May IPO, highlighting AI market activity
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Cerebras Systems filed its S-1 on April 17, 2026, targeting a mid-May Nasdaq listing. This event underscored the active AI IPO market but contrasted with OpenAI's lack of filing, increasing pressure on OpenAI's timeline and contributing to market doubts about a mid-2026 IPO.
Scrutiny over Sam Altman's conflicts ahead of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Reports emerged of internal concerns about CEO Sam Altman's personal investments influencing OpenAI's strategic decisions, highlighting governance risks ahead of the IPO. This added caution to market sentiment about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI files no public S-1; CFO privately warns IPO readiness concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
Despite public signals, OpenAI had not filed a public S-1 by mid-April. Reports indicated CFO Friar privately warned colleagues that the company might not be ready for a 2026 IPO if compute spending outpaces revenue, causing market skepticism and price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
Sam Altman faces scrutiny over conflicts ahead of OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
Reports emerged that CEO Sam Altman faced criticism for potential conflicts of interest involving personal investments, raising internal unease. Despite this, OpenAI's IPO remained on track, but the news introduced some uncertainty reflected in market fluctuations for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Cerebras Systems files S-1, highlighting OpenAI's $20B compute deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%1%
Cerebras Systems filed its S-1 registration statement for a May 2026 Nasdaq IPO, disclosing a $20 billion Master Relationship Agreement with OpenAI for AI compute capacity. This underscored OpenAI's massive infrastructure needs but did not indicate an imminent IPO, contributing to market caution.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Statements from CFO Sarah Friar about targeting a regulatory filing in H2 2026 and a potential 2027 listing tempered early 2026 market optimism for an earlier IPO, causing some price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
In early 2026, OpenAI discontinued its standalone Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic refocus on core AI products ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was seen as a step to streamline operations and improve financials before going public.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI's conversion to a public benefit corporation eliminated nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, signaling readiness for public markets and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI's $852 billion valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's $852 billion valuation was under scrutiny by investors due to a strategic shift towards enterprise AI and competition from Anthropic, raising doubts about the company's IPO readiness and timeline. This news contributed to market uncertainty about the likelihood of an IPO by year-end.
OpenAI launches OpenAI Deployment Company with acquisition of Tomoro
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%6%
OpenAI announced the launch of its OpenAI Deployment Company and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro, signaling continued growth and operational scaling ahead of IPO, briefly supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI acquires personal finance startup Hiro Finance
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, a personal finance startup, signaling strategic expansion and strengthening its AI capabilities ahead of its IPO. This acquisition indicated operational growth but had limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires AI personal finance startup Hiro Finance
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, a personal finance AI startup, to enhance its business finance tools. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's ongoing expansion and product development ahead of an IPO, but no IPO filing or date was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI launches $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro plan
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI announced a new $100‑per‑month ChatGPT Pro tier on 9 April 2026, adding a premium subscription tier and a promotional 10× Codex boost through 31 May. The rollout raised concerns that the company was shifting focus to monetisation rather than an IPO, prompting the market’s probability for a Q4 2026 listing (Dec 31 2026 outcome) to fall from 36 % on 9 Apr to 31 % on 28 Apr.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO filing targeted for second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar communicated internally that the company aims to file regulatory paperwork for an IPO in the second half of 2026, with a potential public listing in 2027. This announcement reinforced market anticipation but also suggested the IPO might slip beyond 2026, contributing to price stabilization and slight declines.
OpenAI CFO announces allocation of IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering. However, she did not confirm a timeline, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI CFO announces retail investor allocation plan for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC that the company plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public listing. This news increased market expectations for an eventual IPO but did not confirm timing, supporting moderate optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms IPO share allocation for retail investors
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, a move to broaden participation and align with public company standards. While no specific IPO date was given, this confirmed active IPO preparations for late 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation in upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors and is laying groundwork for a U.S. stock market listing possibly in the second half of 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO states company will allocate IPO shares to retail investors
In April 2026, CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling readiness to act like a public company and supporting expectations of an IPO in late 2026.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Outlines Retail Share Allocation Plans for Future IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar announced that the company plans to reserve a portion of shares for retail investors when it eventually goes public. While she declined to comment on a specific timeline, the announcement reinforced that IPO preparations were actively underway.
Internal CFO concerns surface over 2026 IPO readiness
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about organizational unpreparedness and procedural gaps for a 2026 IPO, contrasting with CEO Sam Altman's aggressive push for a Q4 2026 listing. This internal tension introduced uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, emphasizing the company's intent to act like a public company. However, she did not confirm a listing timeline, reflecting ongoing IPO timing uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Announces Retail Share Allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, signaling concrete preparation for a public listing.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar discusses compute constraints and Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
In an interview, CFO Sarah Friar highlighted ongoing challenges and strategic partnerships, emphasizing that an IPO was not the company's current focus, which tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in an interview that the company will allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, signaling preparation for a public listing. Although no IPO date was given, this move was seen as a step towards going public, briefly supporting market confidence in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI to allocate IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 71%2%
CFO Sarah Friar said OpenAI would allocate a portion of IPO shares to retail investors, reinforcing the company’s public‑market preparation and providing a modest boost to the December‑31 probability.
OpenAI CFO Announces Plan to Reserve IPO Shares for Retail Investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI will reserve a portion of its IPO shares for individual investors, signaling serious groundwork and public-company hygiene preparations.
OpenAI CFO reiterates IPO preparations and retail share allocation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%8%
Sarah Friar emphasized OpenAI's readiness to act like a public company and confirmed retail investor share allocation plans, reinforcing IPO expectations and supporting market confidence.
OpenAI CFO says IPO will include retail‑investor share allocation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC that OpenAI will allocate a slice of its IPO shares to retail investors and hinted that a listing could occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. The explicit retail‑share plan revived optimism and pushed the market back up for the December‑2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about 2026 IPO readiness due to spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO to 2027, citing risks from spending commitments and organizational readiness. This contributed to a sharp decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price from 3% to 2% and a decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price from 38% to 30%.
OpenAI CFO says firm is preparing for public‑company look‑and‑feel
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%6%
CFO Sarah Friar said OpenAI was preparing to “look and feel and act like a public company,” but stopped short of giving a firm date, slightly dampening confidence and contributing to a modest pull‑back in the market price.
OpenAI CFO announces plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 41%1%
CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC that OpenAI plans to allocate a portion of its IPO shares to individual investors, a move seen as 'good hygiene' for a company of its size. This announcement reinforced expectations of a future IPO but did not confirm timing, contributing to market speculation.
OpenAI CFO says company will allocate IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company plans to reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation for a public offering but without confirming timing, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO shares will be allocated to retail investors
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%4%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public listing and increasing confidence in a 2026 IPO, though no exact date was given.
OpenAI confirms retail investor share allocation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI's CFO reiterated plans to allocate shares to retail investors in the upcoming IPO, reinforcing the company's commitment to a broad public offering and supporting market confidence.
OpenAI CFO Confirms IPO Plans with Retail Investor Share Reservation
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar announced plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors and indicated a potential filing in the second half of 2026. This news initially supported market optimism for a 2026 IPO but did not specify a firm date, leaving uncertainty.
OpenAI plans to allocate IPO shares to retail investors, CFO says
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparations for a public offering and aiming to broaden shareholder base. This reinforced the market's anticipation of an IPO in late 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms $20bn annualized revenue, IPO talks underway
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed in January 2026 that annualized revenue had surpassed $20 billion, fueling investor interest. Informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring of finance executives suggested preparations for an IPO, boosting market optimism for a 2026 listing.
IPO market conditions remain challenging despite OpenAI's IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Despite OpenAI's anticipated IPO, the broader IPO market in early 2026 was slower than expected, with selective exits and some delays, contributing to a decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
Market anticipates OpenAI IPO in Q4 2026 amid AI sector boom
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%1%
Industry reports highlighted OpenAI's looming IPO in late 2026 alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, framing 2026 as a mega-IPO year. This narrative increased investor interest and market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reopen the IPO market—or drain it
Fortune reported that AI-driven venture investment was dominating capital markets, with OpenAI and Anthropic among the top IPO candidates.
IPO market crowded with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic in 2026
Market reports highlighted a crowded 2026 IPO window with OpenAI aiming for a late 2026 listing alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, raising concerns about investor capital allocation and IPO timing risks.
SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs loom amid selective exit window
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
Fortune reported that while SpaceX had filed for IPO, OpenAI was still preparing with no filing yet, highlighting a selective and cautious IPO market environment. This tempered enthusiasm for a near-term OpenAI IPO.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI among top anticipated 2026 IPOs
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
Industry experts noted OpenAI as a leading candidate for a major 2026 IPO, alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, reflecting sustained investor interest despite a slow overall IPO market start to 2026.
OpenAI CFO voices concerns over aggressive 2026 IPO timeline
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, highlighting internal tensions with CEO Sam Altman over the ambitious Q4 target. This news introduced some skepticism into the market regarding the IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Warns Against Sam Altman's 2026 IPO Timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%9%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed serious doubts about CEO Sam Altman's push for a Q4 2026 IPO, citing organizational unpreparedness and massive infrastructure spending risks.
CEO Sam Altman pushes for Q4 2026 IPO despite CFO concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%3%
Reports revealed tension between CEO Sam Altman, who wants a Q4 2026 IPO, and CFO Sarah Friar, who expressed concerns about operational readiness and revenue growth. This internal conflict introduced uncertainty but confirmed active IPO preparations, impacting the December 31, 2026 market.
OpenAI CFO flags regulatory and Microsoft‑reliance risks to IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
An internal memo reported by The Information highlighted CFO‑level worries about regulatory volatility and reliance on Microsoft, suggesting the IPO timeline could be overly optimistic. The concerns caused the market to retreat from 38% to 34% on Apr 6.
OpenAI urges California and Delaware to investigate Elon Musk for anti-competitive behavior
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI called on state attorneys general to investigate Elon Musk's alleged anti-competitive actions ahead of a trial, increasing legal uncertainty around the company and potentially impacting IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI CFO flags cash‑burn risk, doubts readiness for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%23%
The Information reported that CFO Sarah Friar warned the board that the company’s cash‑burn and infrastructure commitments might make a 2026 IPO unrealistic. The cautionary tone contributed to a sharp sell‑off, pushing the Yes odds down to the single‑digit range by mid‑May.
OpenAI CFO says company not ready for 2026 IPO
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Reuters cited that the CFO warned the company was not ready for a 2026 IPO, contradicting the CEO’s timeline. The “July 31 2026” and “August 31 2026” probabilities collapsed to under 5 % after the story.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Questions 2026 IPO Timeline, Citing Financial Risks
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed internal skepticism about OpenAI's readiness to go public by Q4 2026, pointing to unfinished compliance work and massive infrastructure spending risks.
Reports of internal disagreement on OpenAI IPO timing between CEO and CFO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Reports emerged that CEO Sam Altman aims for a Q4 2026 IPO, while CFO Sarah Friar expressed that the company is not yet ready, highlighting internal tensions. This uncertainty contributed to price fluctuations but maintained focus on a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI COO shifts role, AGI CEO on medical leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s COO stepped down and the AGI division CEO took medical leave, creating leadership uncertainty. The market’s “June 30 2026” probability fell from 6 % to 3 % the following week.
OpenAI leadership shake‑up: COO departs, CMO and AGI CEO on medical leave
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Bloomberg reported a three‑person leadership shake‑up – COO Brad Lightcap moved to a special‑projects role, CMO Kate Rouch took medical leave, and AGI CEO Fidji Simo also went on leave. The news raised execution‑risk concerns and coincided with a dip in the Yes probability to the low‑30 % range in early April.
OpenAI experiences leadership changes amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
In early April, OpenAI faced management shifts with key executives taking leaves or changing roles, raising concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, which contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
OpenAI Reshuffles Leadership as COO Shifts Out of Role and AGI CEO Takes Medical Leave
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
A major leadership shakeup occurred at OpenAI with the COO shifting roles and two key executives taking medical leave, raising execution concerns ahead of its planned IPO.
OpenAI experiences leadership shakeup ahead of IPO
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%23%
OpenAI announced that its COO shifted out of role and the AGI division CEO took medical leave, raising concerns about execution risks just months before the anticipated IPO. This leadership instability caused market uncertainty about OpenAI's readiness for public markets, impacting the July, August, and September 2026 IPO date probabilities.
OpenAI COO shifts out, AGI CEO takes medical leave
July 31, 2026 plunges to 2%24%
Bloomberg reported a sudden leadership reshuffle—COO moved to a special project and the AGI division CEO took medical leave—raising doubts about execution readiness and briefly pulling down the July‑31 probability.
OpenAI experiences leadership shakeup with COO role change and key executives on leave
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%7%
The simultaneous departure and leaves of several top executives raised concerns about OpenAI's operational stability ahead of its IPO, causing market uncertainty and a dip in confidence for near-term IPO dates.
OpenAI announces key executive leadership changes ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
OpenAI experienced significant leadership changes with COO Brad Lightcap shifting roles and two core executives taking leaves of absence. This raised concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, impacting market confidence and prices.
OpenAI experiences leadership changes ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
OpenAI's COO shifted roles and two core executives took medical leave, raising concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO. This news introduced uncertainty about the company's readiness, impacting market confidence in the IPO timing.
OpenAI raises $122 billion including $3 billion from retail investors
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI announced raising $122 billion with $3 billion from individual investors, signaling broadening shareholder base ahead of IPO. Inclusion in ETFs managed by ARK Invest further prepared the company for public market debut, increasing IPO likelihood in 2026.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation removed nonprofit-related barriers to going public, facilitating a traditional IPO. This structural change was a key step toward a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires tech talk show TBPN to improve public narrative on AI
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a popular technology business talk show, aiming to positively influence public perception of AI and OpenAI itself. This media acquisition was part of broader IPO preparations and helped maintain investor interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI acquires AI personal finance startup Hiro
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI acquired Hiro Finance, expanding its capabilities in financial planning AI, signaling ongoing strategic growth and investment ahead of a potential IPO.
Market analysis highlights 2026 as likely year for OpenAI IPO
Financial analysts and industry insiders widely speculated that OpenAI's IPO would occur in 2026, emphasizing the company's transition to a for-profit benefit corporation and the potential ripple effect on other AI IPOs. This reinforced market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI acquires streaming show TBPN to influence AI narrative
OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN in early April was a strategic marketing move to shape public perception of AI, reflecting broader corporate positioning ahead of IPO but with limited direct impact on IPO timing.
Market speculation intensifies on OpenAI's 2026 IPO prospects after funding news
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Following the funding announcement, analysts and media outlets discussed OpenAI's cash burn and the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, noting pressure from competitors like Anthropic. This commentary influenced market sentiment, maintaining moderate probability for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires media show TBPN
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%2%
OpenAI disclosed the acquisition of the tech‑talk show TBPN, a move framed as a branding and communications effort ahead of a potential IPO. The news gave a modest boost to the June 30, 2026 outcome, raising its price from 3 % on Mar 7 to 5 % on Apr 5.
OpenAI acquires media startup TBPN to strengthen editorial and audience reach
December 31, 2026 dips to 40%1%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of TBPN, a media company with strong editorial capabilities, enhancing its influence in tech and business culture. This move indicated OpenAI's focus on expanding its ecosystem ahead of a potential IPO, but did not directly signal an imminent public offering.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, indicating preparations to act like a public company. This announcement reinforced market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires tech podcast TBPN to expand strategic communications
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech podcast, to enhance its communication strategy and public engagement ahead of its IPO. This acquisition reflected efforts to manage public perception and investor relations as the IPO approached, though it had limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI acquires TBPN media company to control AI narrative
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech-business media outlet, to strengthen its communications strategy and influence public discourse on AI. This move was part of broader preparations for the IPO, signaling OpenAI's intent to manage its public image ahead of going public.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation addressed previous nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, increasing market confidence in a late 2026 IPO and supporting price stability for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying IPO market competition
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
SpaceX filed its confidential S-1 in April 2026, targeting a massive valuation and IPO raise. This heightened competition in the AI and tech IPO space, pressuring OpenAI's IPO timing and contributing to market uncertainty about a mid-2026 listing.
SpaceX confidentially files for IPO, intensifying tech IPO competition
September 30, 2026 drops to 38%12%
SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026 heightened competition among major tech IPOs, indirectly affecting market sentiment and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing. The competitive environment contributed to uncertainty and volatility in OpenAI's IPO market prices.
OpenAI shuts down standalone Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%6%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling strategic focus ahead of a potential IPO. This raised concerns about growth prospects, contributing to market price declines.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying AI IPO competition
SpaceX filed its confidential S-1 on April 1, 2026, targeting a massive valuation and a June roadshow, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI to finalize its IPO plans. This event contributed to market uncertainty and volatility in OpenAI IPO pricing, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI Closes Historic $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%3%
OpenAI officially closed its record-breaking private funding round, increasing pressure on the company to justify its massive valuation as it gears up for a potential IPO.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking $122 Billion Funding Round
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI officially closed its historic $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank. The massive influx of private capital reduced the immediate pressure to launch an IPO.
OpenAI announces $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI disclosed a massive $122 billion funding round with an $852 billion post-money valuation, signaling strong private market support but no confirmed IPO date, which initially boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes record $122B funding round at $852B valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%5%
OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and reinforcing its financial position ahead of a potential IPO. This event heightened investor anticipation for a late 2026 public listing.
OpenAI's valuation soars to $852 billion after major funding round
OpenAI's private-market valuation increased nearly tenfold to $852 billion by March 2026 after a $122 billion funding round, fueling expectations for a high-value IPO and driving early market optimism for a 2026 public listing.
OpenAI Closes Record Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI announced the final close of its record-breaking funding round at $122 billion, up from the $110 billion announced in February, pushing its post-money valuation to $852 billion.
OpenAI raises $122 bn at $852 bn valuation, fueling IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%15%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the largest private raise in Silicon Valley history. The influx of capital boosted confidence in the IPO plan, lifting the Yes probability to a peak of 56% on Jan 30 and sustaining high levels through March.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion in Historic Private Funding Round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%12%
OpenAI closed the largest private funding round in Silicon Valley history, valuing the company at $852 billion and providing the capital runway needed ahead of its public debut.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%3%
OpenAI closed a historic $122 billion funding round, bringing its valuation to $852 billion. The massive influx of private capital from partners like Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank reduced the immediate financial urgency for a public listing, shifting expectations.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI completed a record-breaking funding round raising $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, signaling strong investor confidence and fueling expectations for a 2026 IPO. This event temporarily boosted market optimism about the IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
OpenAI completed its largest funding round ever, raising $122 billion led by SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital raise reinforced expectations for a 2026 IPO and demonstrated strong investor backing despite ongoing losses.
SoftBank secures $40B loan to support OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
SoftBank took a $40 billion unsecured loan with a 12-month term to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI's funding round, implying confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects within the year to provide liquidity for repayment.
SoftBank takes $40 billion loan linked to OpenAI investment
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%4%
SoftBank secured a $40 billion unsecured loan to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI's funding round, with a 12-month term suggesting confidence in OpenAI's anticipated IPO within 2026. This financial maneuver indicated market belief in a near-term public offering.
SoftBank secures $40B loan signaling confidence in OpenAI IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%7%
SoftBank took a $40 billion unsecured loan to cover its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, with the loan's short term suggesting lender confidence in OpenAI's anticipated IPO in 2026. This financial move supported market expectations for a late-year public offering.
OpenAI raises additional $10 billion in record funding round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%11%
OpenAI secured an additional $10 billion in funding, pushing its valuation and capital reserves higher. This funding round reinforced market confidence in OpenAI's growth trajectory and its potential to proceed with an IPO later in 2026.
OpenAI secures additional $10 billion in funding, raising total to $120 billion
December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%8%
OpenAI announced an extra $10 billion investment, further solidifying its financial foundation ahead of the anticipated IPO. This development maintained positive market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI flags Microsoft reliance as top risk in pre‑IPO filing
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%5%
OpenAI’s pre‑IPO filing listed Microsoft as a top risk after a $50 bn exclusive‑cloud deal with AWS raised speculation of a partnership strain. The risk disclosure coincided with a dip from 41% on Mar 18 to 36% on Mar 25.
OpenAI Shuts Down Standalone Sora App and Unwinds Disney Partnership
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
OpenAI announced the shutdown of its standalone Sora video app and unwound its landmark partnership with Disney, signaling a hard pivot toward enterprise and AGI development ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI holds informal talks with Wall Street banks about potential IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
By March 2026, OpenAI was reported to be in informal discussions with major Wall Street banks regarding a potential IPO, signaling serious intent to go public in late 2026. This news maintained market interest but no formal IPO filing was made yet.
OpenAI to acquire developer‑tool startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a developer‑tools startup, positioning the move as part of a push to strengthen its Codex coding assistant. The announcement coincided with the market’s second‑largest rally for the December 31, 2026 outcome, lifting the price from 44 % on Mar 14 to 51 % on Mar 24.
OpenAI acquires developer tooling startup Astral to boost AI coding capabilities
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Astral, a startup specializing in Python developer tools, to enhance its Codex AI coding assistant. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's continued investment in product development and enterprise tools ahead of its planned IPO, supporting long-term growth prospects.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets IPO by end of 2026 amid 900M ChatGPT users
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
Multiple credible reports from CNBC and Tech in Asia confirmed OpenAI's plan to go public by the end of 2026, highlighting the company's explosive user growth and strategic transition to public markets. This news reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, influencing price movements.
OpenAI Prepares for IPO in 2026 with Strategic Pivot to Enterprise Productivity Tools
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
CNBC confirmed that OpenAI could debut on public markets as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, shifting its focus heavily toward enterprise productivity tools to build a path to profitability.
OpenAI confirms IPO could occur as soon as Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
A source familiar with the matter revealed that OpenAI's IPO might happen in the fourth quarter of 2026, reinforcing market expectations and causing price stabilization around this timeline.
OpenAI signals IPO could happen as soon as Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for an IPO potentially in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a focus on repositioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool to attract enterprise investors, supporting market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO signals focus on productivity and enterprise ahead of potential Q4 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI's CEO of Applications emphasized the company's strategic focus on productivity tools and enterprise market share, signaling readiness for a potential IPO in the fourth quarter. This statement reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI Preps for Potential 2026 IPO with Renewed Focus on Enterprise Business
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while shifting its focus toward enterprise productivity tools.
OpenAI confirms IPO preparations targeting Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
On March 17, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI's preparations for an IPO potentially as soon as Q4 2026, including clearer spending targets and enterprise focus. This official confirmation helped stabilize market expectations, though some uncertainty remained, reflected in a moderate price decline.
OpenAI prepares for Q4 2026 IPO, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
CNBC reported OpenAI's IPO could occur as soon as Q4 2026, with the company emphasizing enterprise business expansion to compete with rivals, reinforcing market expectations for a year-end IPO and supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI prepares for IPO, emphasizes ChatGPT as productivity tool
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
OpenAI publicly indicated preparations for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement reinforced the company's IPO timeline but also highlighted competitive pressures and spending discipline challenges.
OpenAI CEO signals potential Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, announced at an all-hands meeting that the company is aggressively orienting towards enterprise productivity tools and could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026. This official internal communication heightened market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Reports confirm OpenAI preparing for IPO in fourth quarter of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%4%
Multiple credible sources reported OpenAI is gearing up for a Q4 2026 IPO, including informal talks with Wall Street banks and staffing expansions. This news reinforced market expectations for a December 31, 2026 IPO, supporting price gains.
OpenAI signals Q4 2026 IPO target amid enterprise pivot
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
OpenAI publicly indicated plans to launch an IPO as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, emphasizing a strategic shift towards enterprise applications to strengthen revenue streams ahead of going public. This announcement increased market attention and influenced the December 31, 2026 IPO option price.
OpenAI confirms potential IPO in Q4 2026 amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%3%
OpenAI publicly indicated it could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026, emphasizing a strategic pivot towards enterprise applications to strengthen its revenue base ahead of the IPO. This announcement increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI says IPO could land in Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%9%
OpenAI told reporters the company could file for an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, reinforcing market expectations of a late‑2026 listing and triggering a sharp rise in the December‑31‑2026 contract price.
OpenAI preps for IPO in 2026, says ChatGPT must be 'productivity tool'
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%7%
A CNBC report confirmed OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO in late 2026, citing strategic shifts and market positioning.
OpenAI CEO urges shift to productivity focus as IPO preparations accelerate
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications held an all-hands meeting emphasizing transforming ChatGPT into a workplace productivity tool, reflecting a strategic pivot to enterprise use cases. This was part of broader IPO preparations targeting Q4 2026, signaling the company's intent to scale revenue and market appeal.
OpenAI prepares for IPO, focusing on enterprise growth and spending targets
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%3%
OpenAI emphasized enterprise revenue growth and clearer spending targets as it prepares for a potential IPO in late 2026, signaling readiness to public markets and impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI prepares for potential Q4 2026 IPO, focusing on enterprise growth
December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's preparations for a possible IPO in late 2026, emphasizing enterprise revenue growth and clearer spending targets. This bolstered market confidence in a Q4 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI focuses on enterprise applications as it preps for Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI publicly emphasized pivoting ChatGPT towards enterprise productivity tools, aligning with its IPO preparations. The company reported 900 million weekly active users and was investing heavily in enterprise business, aiming to strengthen revenue streams ahead of a potential Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confirms IPO preparations for Q4 2026 focusing on enterprise
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI publicly acknowledged preparations for an IPO by the end of 2026, emphasizing a pivot to enterprise applications to strengthen its market position ahead of the public offering, supporting the market's positive sentiment for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Targets Q4 2026 IPO and Hires Cynthia Gaylor for Investor Relations
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
Reports confirmed OpenAI is targeting an IPO as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026 and has expanded its finance team by hiring former DocuSign CFO Cynthia Gaylor to lead investor relations.
OpenAI renews focus on enterprise amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
OpenAI emphasized enterprise growth and clearer spending targets in early 2026, signaling strategic moves to strengthen business fundamentals ahead of a potential IPO, but no official IPO date was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI signals potential Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications announced aggressive orientation towards high-productivity enterprise use cases and confirmed the company could debut on public markets as soon as Q4 2026. This statement increased market expectations for a 2026 IPO, reflecting strategic shifts to boost revenue and competitiveness.
OpenAI emphasizes ChatGPT as a productivity tool amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI publicly stated its focus on positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool while outlining clearer spending targets. This was part of broader efforts to stabilize finances and appeal to investors ahead of a potential Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Expands Enterprise Focus and Hires Finance Executives
OpenAI aggressively expanded its enterprise business and hired key finance executives to prepare its internal structures for a potential market debut, reinforcing the late 2026 timeline.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO amid enterprise focus and funding success
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
Multiple sources including CNBC and PYMNTS reported that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO by the end of 2026, emphasizing enterprise applications and backed by recent large funding rounds. This consolidated market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI signals potential IPO in Q4 2026, focusing on enterprise applications
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI's CEO of Applications announced an aggressive orientation towards high-productivity enterprise use cases, with the company preparing for a potential IPO as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026. This strategic pivot and IPO timeline confirmation increased market interest in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI Outlines Enterprise Pivot and Pauses Side Projects in All-Hands Meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
OpenAI held an all-hands meeting where executives detailed a strategic shift to pause consumer-focused 'side quests' and aggressively target high-productivity enterprise use cases to build a defensible revenue stream ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI in advanced talks with private equity firms for enterprise AI joint venture
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI engaged with major private equity firms to form a joint venture aimed at distributing its enterprise AI products, signaling strategic moves to boost enterprise adoption ahead of a potential IPO. This development suggested increased corporate backing and market readiness for OpenAI's public offering by late 2026.
OpenAI in talks with private equity for enterprise AI venture
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI engaged with private equity firms to form a joint venture for enterprise AI distribution, indicating strategic moves to expand market reach ahead of IPO, impacting investor sentiment positively for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CEO announces strategic pivot to enterprise applications ahead of Q4 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
At an all-hands meeting, OpenAI's CEO of Applications revealed a shift in focus towards enterprise productivity tools, pausing other projects to strengthen revenue streams before the planned IPO. This strategic move was seen as a positive step towards justifying the IPO valuation, influencing the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
OpenAI announces acquisition of developer-tool startup Astral
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
The acquisition of Astral was seen as a strategic move to strengthen OpenAI's product offerings ahead of its IPO, boosting market optimism and raising the December 31, 2026 IPO probability significantly.
OpenAI Renews Focus on Enterprise and Outlines Clearer Spending Targets
OpenAI held an all-hands meeting emphasizing enterprise growth and tempered its reckless spending approach to satisfy Wall Street concerns ahead of its planned late 2026 IPO.
Sam Altman Acknowledges Data Center Challenges at BlackRock Infrastructure Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%1%
At BlackRock's U.S. Infrastructure Summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discussed severe weather disruptions and supply chain challenges at the Stargate data center campus, highlighting the practical difficulties of scaling infrastructure.
OpenAI spokesperson reiterates IPO not current focus despite preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Despite ongoing preparations and market speculation, OpenAI publicly stated that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, reinforcing uncertainty and contributing to the market discounting earlier IPO dates in favor of later possibilities.
OpenAI acquires AI security startup Promptfoo to enhance AI agent safety
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%4%
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo, a cybersecurity startup, demonstrated its focus on securing AI agents and strengthening enterprise AI offerings, signaling maturity and readiness for public market scrutiny ahead of an IPO.
OpenAI’s IPO timing remains uncertain amid market volatility and funding efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
By early March 2026, despite ongoing preparations and fundraising, OpenAI had not announced a firm IPO date, and market volatility coupled with funding uncertainties caused a further decline in confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome. This reflected persistent doubts about the company’s readiness to go public by mid-2026.
Investor skepticism grows over OpenAI’s cash burn and IPO timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports highlighted OpenAI’s massive cash burn and ongoing fundraising needs, raising doubts about the IPO timing and valuation. This skepticism contributed to a decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO, reflected in the falling price for that outcome.
OpenAI acquires cybersecurity startup Promptfoo to secure AI agents
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%2%
In March 2026, OpenAI acquired Promptfoo, a cybersecurity startup focused on protecting AI agents. This acquisition reinforced OpenAI's efforts to secure its AI ecosystem and enhance product offerings, contributing to market confidence in its readiness for a public offering later in the year.
OpenAI acquires AI security platform Promptfoo
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo in early March enhanced its AI security capabilities, signaling operational scaling but not directly impacting IPO timing, thus having moderate market influence.
Investor skepticism grows over OpenAI's high valuation and profitability ahead of IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports highlighted investor concerns about OpenAI's high valuation and ongoing cash burn, tempering enthusiasm and causing a decline in market pricing for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI faces skepticism over IPO timing amid high cash burn and competition
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Despite preparations, analysts and investors expressed doubts about OpenAI's ability to IPO in 2026 due to its high cash burn, competition from Anthropic, and ongoing legal challenges, tempering market enthusiasm.
Reports highlight OpenAI’s ongoing preparations for late 2026 IPO amid competition
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%9%
News surfaced that OpenAI was accelerating IPO preparations for Q4 2026, including hiring finance executives and engaging in talks with banks, amid rivalry with Anthropic and SpaceX. This sustained market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO date.
Market skepticism grows as OpenAI's IPO price expectations face uncertainty
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
In early March 2026, market confidence in OpenAI's December 31, 2026, IPO option declined sharply amid concerns about the company's high cash burn and uncertain path to profitability. This skepticism was reflected in a significant price drop in the prediction market.
OpenAI Selects Law Firms Cooley and Wachtell for IPO Preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%6%
OpenAI advanced its listing plans by selecting prominent law firms to handle its IPO preparation, signaling concrete steps toward going public.
OpenAI tops $25B in annualized revenue, fueling IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%6%
The Information reported OpenAI reached $25 billion in annualized revenue, a 17% increase from prior figures, bolstering confidence in the company's growth prospects and supporting the December 31, 2026 IPO market.
The Information: OpenAI’s $100 B raise stalls, IPO outlook dimmed
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
The Information disclosed that OpenAI’s anticipated $100 billion funding round was delayed, with sources saying the company had not secured the full capital by early March. The setback lowered confidence in an imminent IPO, dragging the "June 30, 2026" likelihood down to 2 % by Mar 9 2026.
OpenAI secures $200 million Pentagon AI contract
OpenAI landed a $200 million AI contract with the Pentagon, demonstrating strong government support and validating its growth prospects. This contract likely contributed to sustained market confidence in OpenAI's long-term value and its December 31, 2026 IPO chances.
OpenAI hires public-market veterans to prepare for Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
OpenAI strengthened its finance team by hiring a chief accounting officer and a corporate business finance officer, signaling serious preparations for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO.
OpenAI faces investor skepticism over high IPO valuation and cash burn
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
In early March 2026, reports highlighted investor concerns about OpenAI's high IPO valuation near $850 billion to $1 trillion and its substantial cash burn, causing some market price volatility and uncertainty about IPO success.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Investor concerns about OpenAI's high cash burn and uncertain profitability path led to a sharp decline in the market's perceived likelihood of a mid-2026 IPO, reflected in the June 30, 2026 price falling to near 2-4%. This indicated growing doubts about an IPO happening by mid-2026.
OpenAI confirms $110 billion valuation, eyes largest US tech IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 49%5%
Following the funding announcement, OpenAI confirmed its $110 billion valuation, positioning it for potentially the largest US tech IPO ever, which sustained high market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports confirm OpenAI targeting $100 billion fundraising in early 2026 ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%5%
By late February 2026, OpenAI was reported to be raising $100 billion to fund its AI infrastructure and extend runway before IPO, reflecting the company's massive capital needs and influencing market pricing for the December 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI confirms $110B valuation after massive $110B private funding round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%6%
OpenAI announced a $110 billion valuation following one of the largest private funding rounds in history, reinforcing expectations of a record-setting IPO. This bolstered market confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO timing, reflected in price increases.
OpenAI announces strategic partnerships and funding boosts
OpenAI struck a deal with the Pentagon and announced a partnership with Amazon, alongside raising $110 billion in funding. These developments underscored OpenAI's growth and capital needs, setting the stage for future IPO considerations and positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Closes Historic $110 Billion Funding Round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%11%
OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion private funding round from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank. The influx of private capital reduced the immediate pressure to launch an IPO early in the year, stabilizing late 2026 expectations.
OpenAI Confirms $110 Billion Funding Round at $730 Billion Pre-Money Valuation
OpenAI confirmed a massive $110 billion funding round with backing from major tech giants, solidifying its financial foundation ahead of its public market ambitions.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%22%
OpenAI announced a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, involving major investors like Amazon and SoftBank. This massive capital infusion underscored the company's growth but also highlighted ongoing cash burn, impacting IPO timing speculation.
OpenAI Secures Record-Breaking $110 Billion Private Funding Round
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%10%
OpenAI finalized a massive $110 billion funding round from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, which solidified its financial war chest and set the stage for its public market narrative.
Microsoft and OpenAI Reaffirm Partnership Terms Amid New Funding Rounds
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%7%
Microsoft and OpenAI issued a joint statement clarifying that their commercial relationship and exclusive API hosting terms remain unchanged despite OpenAI's new funding and cloud partnerships.
OpenAI announces $110 billion funding round at $730 billion pre-money valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
OpenAI disclosed a massive funding round including investments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, boosting valuation and market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, reflected in a price jump for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI raises $110 billion in largest private funding round ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 48%1%
OpenAI announced a $110 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting valuation to $840 billion. This massive capital raise was seen as a step toward an IPO but also highlighted the company's ongoing need for funding, affecting IPO timing perceptions.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $730 billion valuation in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in new investment, including $50 billion from Amazon, pushing its valuation to $730 billion. This massive funding round underscored the company's capital needs and delayed urgency for an IPO.
OpenAI updates partnership with Microsoft and reports strong revenue growth
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%18%
OpenAI revised its partnership with Microsoft and reported $2 billion monthly revenue, with enterprise revenue growing rapidly. Despite strong fundamentals, no IPO filing was made, sustaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
OpenAI Confirms $110 Billion Valuation Fueling IPO Expectations
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%6%
OpenAI confirmed a massive valuation milestone, signaling strong backing from major tech investors and fueling expectations for a historic public listing.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%7%
On March 31, 2026, OpenAI announced closing a $122 billion funding round, the largest private financing in Silicon Valley history, boosting valuation to $852 billion and fueling IPO expectations for late 2026.
Amazon’s $35B investment contingent on OpenAI IPO or AGI achievement by year-end
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
Reports revealed that $35 billion of Amazon’s investment in OpenAI was contingent on the company either achieving Artificial General Intelligence or completing an IPO by the end of 2026, adding pressure for a timely public offering. This news influenced market pricing toward the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI closes $110 billion funding round with Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%8%
OpenAI secured a record $110 billion funding round, raising its valuation to $730-$840 billion and strengthening its financial position ahead of a planned IPO. This major capital infusion increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, reflected in price spikes.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%12%
OpenAI announced a massive funding round in late February, boosting its valuation and signaling strong financial backing ahead of a potential IPO, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI closes $110B funding round at $730B valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 52%21%
In February 2026, OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion funding round led by major investors including Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, valuing the company at $730 billion. This infusion was seen as a bridge to the IPO, supporting the company's financial runway amid high cash burn and fueling optimism about a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
OpenAI announced the close of a $122 billion funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital raise increased investor confidence in the company's financial strength and likelihood of a 2026 IPO, driving up the price for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app as part of IPO preparation strategy
December 31, 2026 dips to 47%4%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic focus shift ahead of its anticipated 2026 IPO, which influenced investor sentiment and price adjustments.
Nvidia nears $30 billion investment in OpenAI during fundraising round
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
Nvidia's planned $30 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a $100 billion+ fundraising round underscored OpenAI's ongoing capital needs ahead of a potential IPO, influencing market perceptions of the company's financial strategy.
Market concerns rise over OpenAI’s high operating losses and funding needs
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Around late February 2026, reports highlighted OpenAI’s $20.9 billion operating losses in 2025 and ongoing massive funding requirements, raising investor concerns about profitability and sustainability. This led to a decline in market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting skepticism about an earlier IPO.
OpenAI nears $100B funding deal at $850B+ valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Bloomberg reported OpenAI was close to finalizing a $100 billion funding round at a valuation exceeding $850 billion, reflecting strong investor demand and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Nvidia nears $30 billion investment in OpenAI funding round
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%1%
In February 2026, Nvidia was reported to be close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a larger $100 billion fundraising round. This significant capital injection was expected to support OpenAI's infrastructure and growth, positively impacting market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI's valuation and fundraising ambitions fuel IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%6%
In mid-February 2026, reports emphasized OpenAI's valuation estimates between $800 billion and $1 trillion and its plans for a $100 billion fundraising round to support massive infrastructure projects. These factors contributed to a peak in market confidence for the December 31, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI Reportedly Targets Q4 2026 IPO Amid $600 Billion Infrastructure Plan
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
Reports surfaced that CEO Sam Altman is pushing for an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 to fund a massive $600 billion compute expansion, despite internal concerns from the CFO about cash burn.
OpenAI's valuation projected near $1 trillion ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%5%
Analysts and reports projected OpenAI's valuation to approach $1 trillion, driven by rapid revenue growth and enterprise adoption. This valuation milestone heightened market enthusiasm for the IPO, sustaining elevated price levels in mid-February.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw to enhance AI agent capabilities
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%22%
OpenAI acquired OpenClaw, an AI agent startup, signaling a strategic investment in autonomous AI workflows ahead of its IPO. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's commitment to expanding its AI ecosystem, positively influencing market views on its growth prospects.
OpenAI valuation hits $830 billion with $100 billion funding sought
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
Reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, suggesting a massive IPO valuation and supporting market interest in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app to sharpen focus on enterprise ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%5%
OpenAI announced the shutdown of its standalone Sora video‑generation app, signalling a strategic shift toward enterprise products ahead of the IPO. The news coincided with a modest price uptick in early February as investors interpreted the move as a focus on higher‑margin revenue streams.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw, signaling shift toward autonomous AI agents
December 31, 2026 dips to 50%3%
OpenAI acquired OpenClaw in mid-February 2026, emphasizing a strategic focus on autonomous AI agents and workflow orchestration. This acquisition highlighted OpenAI's commitment to innovation and market leadership ahead of its planned IPO, supporting positive market sentiment for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI shuts down Sora app amid strategic shift ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
OpenAI discontinued its Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, signaling a strategic focus on core products ahead of its anticipated IPO. This move was interpreted as a step to streamline operations, positively influencing the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
OpenAI Restructures into Dual Structure and Removes 'Safely' from Mission Statement
December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%7%
OpenAI removed the word 'safely' from its mission statement and split into a nonprofit foundation and a for-profit public-benefit corporation. This restructuring was designed to attract massive private investment and clear the path for a future public listing.
OpenAI CFO warns IPO may be premature, cites compliance gaps
December 31, 2026 surges to 51%20%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly expressed doubts about the company’s readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing regulatory and procedural hurdles. The caution triggered a market rebound from the low‑28% level to 31% on Feb 6, then a swift rise to 51% by Feb 7 as investors reassessed the timeline.
Reports of OpenAI accelerating IPO preparations amid competition with Anthropic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%11%
Reports indicated OpenAI was accelerating IPO preparations for late 2026, holding informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, driven by competition with Anthropic and the need to address cash burn. This briefly boosted market confidence.
OpenAI hires public-market veterans signaling imminent IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%10%
In early February 2026, OpenAI's aggressive hiring of finance and public-market veterans was reported as a strong signal of an impending IPO, reinforcing market confidence in a late 2026 public listing. This contributed to a peak in market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI signals strong IPO intent with aggressive hiring and spending targets
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
OpenAI outlined clearer spending targets and invested heavily in enterprise business growth, signaling preparation for a late 2026 IPO. This bolstered market optimism temporarily, reflected in a price increase for the December 31, 2026, IPO option.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI IPO in late 2026 with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%20%
Reports suggested OpenAI was preparing for a late 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, fueling market speculation and causing some price volatility in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product ahead of IPO filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 50%10%
OpenAI introduced long-term compute commitments, signaling business maturity and readiness for public markets, which supported market optimism for a September 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets $1 trillion valuation for late 2026 IPO amid finance hiring spree
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%12%
By early February 2026, rumors intensified that OpenAI was preparing for a historic IPO with a target valuation around $1 trillion. The company was aggressively hiring public market veterans and engaging with major investment banks, signaling strong commitment to a late 2026 IPO despite investor skepticism about profitability.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI preparing for late 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%11%
In early February 2026, reports intensified that OpenAI was preparing for a late 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation. The company was aggressively hiring public market veterans and restructuring internally, which boosted market optimism and caused a price increase for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI aggressively hires public-market veterans amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%13%
Reports in early February 2026 highlighted OpenAI's hiring spree of finance and investor relations professionals, signaling serious IPO preparations. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to a further price rise to above 50%.
OpenAI hires key finance executives and holds informal IPO talks with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
In early February 2026, OpenAI accelerated IPO preparations by hiring a chief accounting officer and business finance officer, and engaging in informal discussions with Wall Street banks, signaling serious intent for a Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI finalizes conversion to Public Benefit Corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
OpenAI's conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation eased structural risks related to going public, positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
Rumors intensify of OpenAI targeting late 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%13%
Market reports and rumors in early February 2026 suggested OpenAI was preparing for a historic IPO in late 2026 with a target valuation of $1 trillion. The company was aggressively hiring public market veterans, signaling serious IPO preparations, which increased market optimism for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Market optimism surges on reports of imminent confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%22%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes, reflecting growing confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Wall Street analysts start informal $1 trillion valuations for OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 54%6%
Analyst notes from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs surfaced that they were informally valuing OpenAI at $1 trillion and expecting a Q4 2026 filing. The upbeat coverage prompted a second surge, pushing the "December 31, 2026" price to a record 54 % on Feb 5 2026.
OpenAI's market optimism surges on IPO speculation and fundraising
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%21%
Market prices for the December 31, 2026 IPO option surged sharply as investors reacted to ongoing fundraising efforts and positive speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects in late 2026.
OpenAI plans to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to cover funding gap
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%23%
OpenAI announced plans to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to address massive projected losses and fund its AI infrastructure, reinforcing the expectation of a late 2026 IPO.
SpaceX acquires xAI in record-setting deal ahead of IPO plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Elon Musk's SpaceX acquired AI startup xAI, creating the world's most valuable private company and intensifying competition in AI IPOs, potentially impacting OpenAI's market positioning.
OpenAI initiates $100 billion fundraising to fill funding gap before IPO
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
OpenAI began a major fundraising effort to raise $100 billion in early 2026 to support its massive capital expenditures and extend runway before an IPO. This financial pressure contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome, which saw prices drop significantly.
Kalshi market prices near 100% probability for OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%23%
Kalshi prediction market contracts for an OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2026, reached maximum value, reflecting strong market consensus early in the year. However, no IPO announcement occurred by that date, leading to later price adjustments.
OpenAI shares price peaks amid IPO speculation and strategic updates
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%26%
Investor enthusiasm peaked with a 56% price level for the December 31, 2026, IPO option, reflecting optimism about OpenAI's valuation and timing, before some profit-taking and volatility set in.
OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising and cash burn concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI was racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO to raise capital amid billions in annual cash burn, testing investor tolerance for the AI boom. This news maintained some market interest but also highlighted financial risks.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%26%
OpenAI completed a massive funding round raising $122 billion, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This capital influx was seen as a strong precursor to an IPO, driving a peak in market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI adds senior finance team ahead of potential IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%21%
Fast Company and the Wall Street Journal disclosed that OpenAI hired a new chief accounting officer and a chief business finance officer to head an investor‑relations function, signalling concrete IPO preparation. The hires lifted the "December 31, 2026" odds, creating a sharp price jump of +21 points on Jan 30 2026.
OpenAI's IPO rumored for Q4 2026 amid investor and market speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 30%1%
By early 2026, rumors intensified that OpenAI's IPO could occur in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the company hiring finance executives and engaging in informal talks with Wall Street banks. Market prices reflected cautious optimism about the IPO timeline and valuation prospects.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman highlights $1.4 trillion in deals, fueling IPO optimism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%8%
In January 2026, CEO Sam Altman publicly emphasized OpenAI's massive deal pipeline worth $1.4 trillion over eight years, reinforcing investor confidence in the company's growth prospects and supporting the case for a high-value IPO later in 2026.
OpenAI pivots ChatGPT to enterprise productivity ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%7%
OpenAI’s internal all‑hands meeting emphasized a shift toward enterprise revenue and signaled that ChatGPT would be marketed as a productivity tool, reinforcing the IPO narrative and contributing to a sharp price jump on Jan 30 (from 32 % to 39 %).
OpenAI exec fired over sexual‑discrimination claims, IPO odds slip
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
OpenAI fired its VP of Product Policy over sexual‑discrimination allegations. The controversy raised concerns about governance and caused the market’s low point of 23% on Jan 9, dragging the Yes probability down to 28% by Jan 12.
OpenAI pushes for Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was racing toward a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO while simultaneously raising $100 billion to cover funding gaps. The company's high cash burn and unprofitability raised investor concerns, impacting market confidence in the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI accelerates plans for Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising push
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%8%
By January 2026, OpenAI was reported to be accelerating its IPO plans for the fourth quarter of 2026, seeking over $100 billion in pre-IPO private funding to offset significant cash burn on AI infrastructure. This intensified fundraising and IPO preparation heightened market expectations for the December 31, 2026 IPO, reflected in price increases.
Reports highlight OpenAI's Q4 2026 IPO plans amid massive fundraising push
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%3%
By late January 2026, multiple reports surfaced indicating OpenAI's intention to pursue an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside a massive fundraising effort to raise an additional $100 billion. This news increased market speculation and temporarily boosted the December 31, 2026, IPO market price.
OpenAI's IPO would test investor tolerance amid high cash burn
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%4%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive cash burn and fundraising needs, raising questions about investor appetite for its IPO. This tempered market enthusiasm, reflected in price volatility for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
Reports of Q4 2026 IPO Target Highlight OpenAI's Massive Cash Burn
December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%12%
Analysis of OpenAI's rumored Q4 2026 IPO plans highlighted that the company is burning billions of dollars annually, testing investor tolerance and shifting probability away from earlier 2026 dates.
Reports of OpenAI raising $100 billion and targeting late 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
News emerged that OpenAI was taking action in early 2026 to raise $100 billion to fund its operations and infrastructure, with a potential IPO targeted for late 2026. This significant fundraising effort and clearer IPO timeline boosted market confidence, causing a sharp price increase.
Reports of OpenAI racing toward Q4 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was accelerating preparations for a late 2026 IPO, including informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, driven by competition with Anthropic and the need to address cash burn. This news caused some price volatility and reflected ongoing uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman downplays IPO excitement but confirms future public offering
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%11%
Sam Altman stated he was '0%' excited about leading a public company but confirmed OpenAI’s intention to eventually go public. This tempered enthusiasm contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility for the IPO outcomes.
OpenAI announces massive $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
In March 2026, OpenAI closed the largest private funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting valuation to $852 billion. This funding was seen as a positive step toward IPO readiness, temporarily supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI Reportedly Targets Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%18%
Reports that OpenAI is racing toward a Q4 2026 IPO to beat rivals and secure funding boosted the probability of a listing by December 31, 2026.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans for Q4 2026 amid competition and leadership changes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, hiring finance executives and engaging with Wall Street banks, while facing competition from Anthropic and internal challenges.
OpenAI lays groundwork for fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%6%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO in Q4 2026, including hiring finance officers and engaging in informal discussions with banks, which boosted market confidence in a year-end IPO.
WSJ says OpenAI is preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%29%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was "laying the groundwork" for a fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO and had begun informal talks with Wall Street banks. The story sparked a dramatic surge in market confidence, pushing the Yes price for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 27 % on Jan 9 to a peak of 56 % on Jan 30.
OpenAI announces plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO
OpenAI publicly indicated intentions to pursue an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, setting initial market expectations for a late-year public offering. This announcement laid the groundwork for subsequent market pricing of the IPO timing.
Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon in Talks to Invest Up to $60 Billion in OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
Reports emerged that major tech giants were in talks to invest tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI, highlighting the company's massive private fundraising efforts which could delay the immediate need for an IPO.
OpenAI announces plan for fourth‑quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%7%
A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI planned a fourth‑quarter IPO raised expectations for a late‑2026 listing, briefly lifting the “December 31 2026” probability before it fell again as investors awaited concrete timing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Targeting a Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%25%
Reports emerged indicating that OpenAI was actively planning a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, aiming for a $1 trillion valuation, which revived investor optimism for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI accelerates plans for potential Q4 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for a fourth-quarter IPO and has started informal discussions with investment banks, signaling serious intent to go public by year-end. This news increased market optimism for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI lays groundwork for Q4 2026 IPO with Wall Street banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%7%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was preparing for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO and had begun informal discussions with Wall Street banks, signaling serious intent to go public and causing a price surge for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI accelerates IPO plans targeting Q4 2026 debut
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%12%
In January 2026, OpenAI reportedly accelerated its IPO preparations aiming for a fourth-quarter 2026 public offering. This move was partly to compete with rivals Anthropic and SpaceX, who were also planning IPOs in 2026, and to address investor concerns about the company's cash burn and profitability path.
OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO and Initiates Talks with Wall Street Banks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 42%11%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is fast-tracking its plans for an initial public offering targeting the fourth quarter of 2026, driving up the probability of a December 31, 2026 resolution.
OpenAI Accelerates Plans for Q4 2026 IPO to Beat Rival Anthropic
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%9%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is speeding up its IPO preparations for the fourth quarter of 2026 due to concerns that rival Anthropic might list first, significantly boosting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI Reportedly Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%19%
Reports of a targeted fourth-quarter 2026 IPO window and massive capital requirements solidified expectations for a late 2026 listing rather than an earlier summer debut.
OpenAI CFO emphasizes need to stabilize finances before IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports highlighted CFO Sarah Friar's concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a public offering due to operational and compliance work needed, suggesting a possible delay beyond 2026. This tempered market optimism and contributed to price declines for earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frames $1 trillion infrastructure spend underpinning IPO case
December 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%
Sam Altman's January 2026 Stargate announcement video emphasized the massive $600 billion compute infrastructure investment over five years, reinforcing investor confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and driving up market prices for late 2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CFO signals retail investor share allocation in upcoming IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%3%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve shares for retail investors, indicating serious IPO preparations and broadening potential investor base, supporting a temporary price rebound for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 29% to 32% in January 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor allocation for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%2%
CFO Sarah Friar stated in an interview that OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation for a public offering and broadening investor access, which positively influenced market sentiment.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns and spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI being ready for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, contributing to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness and retail investor share allocation
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated in a CNBC interview that the company plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, emphasizing the importance of acting like a public company. This announcement increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO, particularly for the December 31, 2026 outcome, as it indicated serious IPO preparations.
OpenAI CFO signals company acting like public firm ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%1%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company is preparing to 'look and feel and act' like a public company, indicating IPO preparations. This statement increased market confidence in a late 2026 IPO, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals company preparing for IPO, emphasizing public company readiness
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%12%
CFO Sarah Friar indicated that OpenAI is adopting practices typical of public companies and plans to allocate shares to retail investors, reinforcing expectations of an IPO in 2026 and causing a price surge.
OpenAI CFO signals company not ready for 2026 IPO due to spending risks
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%5%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing risks from spending commitments and revenue uncertainty. This internal skepticism caused market doubts, contributing to price declines for earlier IPO outcomes.
OpenAI CFO stresses public‑company hygiene ahead of potential 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
During a Davos interview, Sarah Friar emphasized the public‑company‑like governance and hinted at an IPO “later this year,” reinforcing the market’s belief that the December‑2026 deadline was plausible and helping sustain the price rebound after the March funding news.
OpenAI CFO announces annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion in 2025
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar revealed the company’s rapid revenue growth, signaling strong business momentum ahead of a potential IPO. This announcement likely boosted confidence in the December 31, 2026 IPO timing.
OpenAI hires advisers for a Q3‑Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 surges to 48%17%
OpenAI announced it had hired bankers and lawyers to prepare an IPO, targeting the third or fourth quarter of 2026. The announcement raised market optimism, lifting the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 deadline to a mid‑20s% level.
Reports emerge of OpenAI targeting $60B capital raise ahead of 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
Mid-January reports indicated OpenAI was aiming to raise at least $60 billion to fund its AI development, marking a significant step toward a public offering. This fueled investor anticipation for a late 2026 IPO, contributing to rising market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI continues acquisition spree to bolster AI capabilities
OpenAI announced multiple acquisitions in early 2026, signaling a focus on growth and technology expansion, which could support future IPO valuation but did not directly confirm IPO timing.
OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise in 2026 IPO amid growing AGI ambitions
Reports in mid-January 2026 indicated OpenAI's IPO aims to raise at least $60 billion to fund its expensive Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development. This reinforced the expectation of a large IPO later in 2026, but the timing remained uncertain, leading to continued market caution.
OpenAI CFO confirms $20 billion revenue run rate by end of 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
OpenAI's CFO confirmed the company surpassed $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2025, highlighting rapid growth but also underscoring the need for substantial capital, supporting IPO timing speculation.
SpaceX and OpenAI confirm unified IPO plans for second half of 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Elon Musk confirmed in December 2025 and reports in January 2026 detailed that SpaceX and OpenAI are preparing for IPOs in the second half of 2026, consolidating market expectations around late 2026 IPOs and causing a shift away from earlier dates, reflected in declining prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI prepares for public debut amid thawing antitrust climate
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Financial reports noted OpenAI's transition to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation completed in late 2025, with plans to raise at least $60 billion for AI development. The company is in active IPO preparations targeting late 2026 or 2027, influencing market expectations and contributing to price declines as timing remains uncertain.
OpenAI targets $60B capital raise for 2026 IPO preparations
June 30, 2026 rises to 6%1%
Reports indicated OpenAI was aiming to raise at least $60 billion to fund its AI ambitions, signaling serious IPO preparations for 2026. This news helped stabilize market prices slightly after prior declines.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app amid strategic shift towards IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
OpenAI discontinued its standalone Sora video generation app due to declining user engagement, as part of a broader strategic realignment ahead of a potential 2026 IPO. This move was seen as a step to streamline operations and focus on core AI products, impacting investor perceptions of IPO readiness.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence and contributing to a rise in IPO odds.
Reports indicate OpenAI targets $60 billion capital raise, IPO preparations continue for late 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
FinancialContent reported OpenAI's plans to raise significant capital to fund AI ambitions, with IPO preparations ongoing and a likely filing in the second half of 2026, supporting the market's view of a late 2026 IPO but not earlier dates.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with $10 billion computing deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
OpenAI announced a major computing capacity deal with Cerebras, signaling infrastructure expansion and IPO preparation, boosting market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
Tech Giants Prepare for Mega IPOs in 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
Reports highlighted that OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for public listings, though they remain early in the process, keeping the late 2026 timeline highly relevant.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals need for more funding despite reluctance for public company role
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
In a December podcast, Sam Altman expressed little excitement about leading a public company but acknowledged OpenAI's need to raise more capital, fueling speculation about a 2026 IPO. This statement contributed to market interest in the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
New York Times highlights OpenAI’s massive spending and IPO preparations
The New York Times reported OpenAI’s plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029 and its conversion to a for-profit aiming for an IPO. The article emphasized the scale of funding needed and the company’s ongoing preparations, sustaining market interest in a late 2026 or 2027 IPO.
Reports highlight 2026 as potential year for OpenAI IPO amid AI boom
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%2%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was in early stages of IPO preparations, with the AI boom driving expectations for a mega IPO in 2026. However, the company was still early in the process, and market volatility or geopolitical risks could delay the offering. This news increased market interest in a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI IPO anticipated as part of 2026 mega-IPO wave with SpaceX and Anthropic
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Reports confirmed OpenAI among three tech giants preparing for IPOs in 2026, fueling investor excitement and pushing prices higher for the December 31, 2026 outcome. The market viewed this as a historic capital markets event, though no exact IPO date was set.
Reports highlight OpenAI's potential 2026 IPO amid AI market excitement
News coverage in mid-January emphasized OpenAI as a leading AI company likely to pursue an IPO in 2026, fueling market optimism and contributing to early price increases for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
New York Times reports OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 'zero percent' excited about IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
Sam Altman expressed reluctance about leading a public company despite acknowledging the need for more funding, which dampened market enthusiasm and contributed to lower IPO outcome prices.
New York Times highlights 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI was among the top tech companies preparing for a 2026 IPO, emphasizing its massive spending plans and valuation near $500 billion to $1 trillion. This reinforced market anticipation but also highlighted the company's high cash burn, contributing to mixed market sentiment.
New York Times reports 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
A January 2026 New York Times article highlighted OpenAI among the top tech companies preparing for historic IPOs in 2026, emphasizing its $500 billion valuation and massive planned spending, which increased market optimism about a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI converts to for-profit and plans mega IPO amid $115B spending plan
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
In January 2026, OpenAI completed its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit status, signaling a strategic move toward a public offering. The company announced plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029, underscoring the need for substantial capital and supporting expectations of a large IPO in late 2026.
OpenAI plans $115 billion spending between 2025-2029, fueling IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 31%4%
Reports in January 2026 highlighted OpenAI's plan to spend $115 billion over five years, underscoring the need for substantial capital and reinforcing expectations for a 2026 IPO. This spending plan contributed to market anticipation and valuation discussions.
OpenAI CEO expresses reluctance about public company leadership but confirms IPO necessity
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
In a December podcast reported in January 2026, CEO Sam Altman stated he was "zero percent" excited about leading a public company but acknowledged the need for raising more capital via an IPO. This candid admission tempered enthusiasm, contributing to a price drop in early January 2026.
OpenAI plans massive $115 billion spending and IPO in 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%10%
Reports detailed OpenAI's plan to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029 on AI infrastructure, necessitating a large IPO to fund these outlays. The company’s valuation was estimated at $500 billion, and the IPO was positioned as a key funding event, boosting market interest in a late 2026 IPO.
Reports highlight 2026 as year of mega IPOs including OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
Media reports emphasized 2026 as a landmark year for mega IPOs with OpenAI among the top anticipated listings, reinforcing market expectations and influencing price movements.
OpenAI CFO confirms revenue surpassing $20 billion by end of 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%1%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion by the end of 2025, highlighting rapid growth but also emphasizing the need to stabilize finances before IPO. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, supporting prices for longer-dated outcomes.
OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic IPOs expected to create historic market impact in 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Major media coverage in mid-January 2026 emphasized the anticipated mega-IPO wave including OpenAI, projecting massive capital raises and market reshaping. This coverage coincided with a price drop for December 31, 2026 from 35% to 28%, reflecting market reassessment amid uncertainty.
OpenAI targets 2027 IPO but could file in late 2026 amid mega-IPO year
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
Reports from The New York Times and others indicated OpenAI is targeting a 2027 IPO but may file for an IPO as early as late 2026, amid a broader mega-IPO wave including SpaceX and Anthropic. This tempered market optimism, reflected in a gradual price decline for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman discusses IPO plans and company spending
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%2%
In a December 2025 podcast, CEO Sam Altman expressed mixed feelings about leading a public company but acknowledged the need for more funding. Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive planned spending of $115 billion through 2029, underscoring the financial scale driving IPO considerations and impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI targets 2026 IPO amid mega-IPO market optimism
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
Amid a surge of mega-IPOs in 2026, OpenAI was reported to be preparing for a public offering potentially in late 2026, with a valuation near $1 trillion. Market enthusiasm was tempered by CEO Sam Altman's expressed reluctance to lead a public company, contributing to cautious investor sentiment and price declines.
OpenAI and Anthropic take early steps toward IPOs amid market anticipation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI and Anthropic have taken early steps to go public, with OpenAI valued around $500 billion and aiming for a public offering. This news maintained some market interest but did not reverse the downward trend in IPO timing confidence.
Market uncertainty grows amid mega IPOs planned for 2026 including OpenAI
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%5%
Reports in early 2026 highlighted that OpenAI, along with SpaceX and Anthropic, is preparing for a mega IPO in 2026 or 2027, but market uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment led to further declines in IPO probability prices, especially for mid-2026 dates.
OpenAI acquires health-care technology startup Torch for $60 million
OpenAI's acquisition of Torch signaled continued expansion and investment in AI applications, particularly in healthcare, reinforcing its enterprise growth strategy ahead of a potential IPO. This acquisition contributed to market optimism about OpenAI's growth prospects for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI acquires health-care tech startup Torch amid IPO preparations
In January 2026, OpenAI acquired Torch, a health-care technology startup, signaling strategic expansion and strengthening of its AI capabilities ahead of the anticipated IPO. This acquisition demonstrated OpenAI's growth strategy and contributed to market confidence in its long-term prospects for the December 31, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes historic $6.6B funding round, valuation hits $150B
OpenAI secured a $6.6 billion funding round, marking a major private capital milestone and signaling continued reliance on private funding rather than an imminent IPO, which dampened market IPO probabilities.
OpenAI declares 'Code Red' as Google's Gemini 3 gains market share
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
OpenAI internally declared a 'Code Red' due to Google's Gemini 3 outperforming its models and gaining user traction, leading to a drop in ChatGPT traffic and investor confidence. This event coincided with a sharp market price decline for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI sets aside $50B employee stock grant pool amid $750B valuation talks
OpenAI created a $50 billion stock grant pool for employees and was in preliminary talks to raise funds at a $750 billion valuation, indicating preparations for a public offering and boosting market confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Market skepticism grows as OpenAI valuation and IPO timing remain uncertain
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Despite ongoing IPO preparations, investor skepticism about OpenAI's valuation and timing increased, reflected in further price drops for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes. Concerns about competition, cash burn, and funding needs weighed on market confidence.
OpenAI sets aside $50B employee stock grant pool amid funding talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Reuters reported OpenAI reserved a $50 billion stock grant pool and was in talks to raise funds at a $750 billion valuation, indicating ongoing private funding efforts and delaying IPO expectations.
Judge Rules Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI Can Proceed to Jury Trial
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
A federal judge cleared the way for Elon Musk's lawsuit over OpenAI's for-profit conversion to go to trial, introducing potential legal hurdles and uncertainty that temporarily depressed IPO expectations.
OpenAI Announces Launch of ChatGPT Health
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
OpenAI announced plans to launch ChatGPT Health, allowing users to connect health records to the chatbot, expanding its product ecosystem ahead of its massive fundraising efforts.
Reports highlight OpenAI's IPO likely in 2027, not 2026, amid CEO's timeline denial
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly dismissed rumors of a 2026 IPO timeline, confirming only that an IPO is expected eventually. This clarification further reduced market confidence in a 2026 IPO, pushing prices lower for June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could IPO in 2026, but investor willingness questioned
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Market reports highlighted that OpenAI, alongside SpaceX and Anthropic, could go public in 2026, but concerns about investor willingness to pay high valuations caused market uncertainty. This contributed to a decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome price as investors weighed risks.
Bloomberg highlights mixed feelings from OpenAI CEO about going public in 2026
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
Bloomberg reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed ambivalence about an IPO, reflecting internal uncertainty and contributing to cautious market pricing for the 2026 IPO outcomes.
SoftBank completes $41 billion investment in OpenAI, deepening AI bet
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
SoftBank finalized a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, reinforcing confidence in the company's growth and IPO prospects. This significant funding round supported OpenAI's ambitious AI infrastructure plans and was seen as a positive signal for its upcoming public offering.
OpenAI ramps up finance hiring, eyes historic Q4 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%
OpenAI announced a large‑scale finance‑hiring spree and confirmed that it is targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, signaling stronger preparation for a public listing. The news lifted market confidence, pushing the Yes probability from 31% on Jan 5 to 40% by Jan 31.
SoftBank Completes $41 Billion Investment in OpenAI
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
SoftBank finalized its massive investment in OpenAI, providing the company with substantial private capital and reducing the immediate pressure for an early 2026 public listing.
OpenAI restructures as public benefit corporation, signaling IPO preparation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI completed a complex restructuring making its nonprofit arm hold a 26% stake in the for-profit entity, a step toward IPO readiness. This supported the December 31, 2026 IPO outlook but did not reverse the overall market decline.
OpenAI faces make-or-break year in 2026 amid mounting losses and competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and intensifying competition, including setbacks with GPT-5 and Google's Gemini 3, raising doubts about the company's ability to sustain growth and meet IPO expectations. This contributed to a decline in IPO market prices.
OpenAI officially transitions to for-profit public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation, a critical step enabling an IPO. This structural change was widely reported and reinforced expectations for a 2026 public offering, supporting market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $100 billion Project Stargate fueling IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's massive $100 billion data center expansion project, Project Stargate, underscoring the company's need for substantial capital through an IPO. This reinforced market expectations for a large-scale 2026 IPO, contributing to a slight price increase before subsequent declines.
OpenAI acquires AI-assisted coding tool Windsurf for $3 billion
OpenAI completed its largest acquisition to date by buying Windsurf, an AI-assisted coding tool, for $3 billion. This acquisition strengthened OpenAI's product offerings and market position, contributing to positive sentiment for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI accelerates product shipping and IPO preparations amid funding needs
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Reports indicated OpenAI was shipping new products and scaling infrastructure while preparing for a potential IPO filing in late 2026 and listing in 2027, reinforcing market expectations for a mid-2026 IPO timeline.
Sam Altman expresses reluctance about being CEO of a public company amid IPO hints
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he was '0%' excited to be CEO of a public company, indicating IPO plans were tentative and likely beyond 2025, tempering some market enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100B at $830B valuation amid IPO rumors
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
OpenAI entered discussions to raise up to $100 billion in funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO to fund its rapid growth and development. This news initially supported optimism for a late 2026 IPO, reflected in market prices.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding round at $830 billion valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is trying to raise $100 billion in private funding at an $830 billion valuation, signaling reliance on private capital and delaying the IPO timeline. This dampened market expectations for a near-term IPO, pushing down prices for both June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI in talks to raise $100B at $830B valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's talks to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, signaling ongoing capital needs but also cooling investor enthusiasm about a near-term IPO, contributing to price declines.
OpenAI seeks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
In December 2025, reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round valuing the company at $830 billion. This massive fundraising effort was seen as a precursor to the anticipated IPO, aiming to fund extensive AI infrastructure projects and sustain growth.
SoftBank races to fulfill $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by year-end
SoftBank Group accelerated efforts to deliver a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by the end of 2025, reinforcing OpenAI's capital base ahead of its anticipated IPO. This substantial funding support bolstered market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and IPO timeline, impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI seeks to raise $100 billion at $830 billion valuation amid IPO rumors
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, aiming to fund development and infrastructure before an IPO. This large private funding effort indicated delays in going public, pressuring near-term IPO market prices.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO near $1 trillion valuation. This raised market optimism for a late 2026 IPO, boosting prices for longer-dated outcomes.
OpenAI reportedly tries to raise $100B at $830B valuation
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is attempting to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation to fund its development efforts, with rumors of an IPO as a funding mechanism. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO, influencing prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding round at $830 billion valuation
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at $830 billion, reflecting both investor interest and the massive capital needs for AI infrastructure. This funding effort underscored the financial challenges and ambitions ahead of the IPO, influencing market expectations for the 2026 listing.
WSJ: OpenAI eyes $100 B raise and late‑2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation and that the funding round would be followed by a late‑2026 IPO. The story reignited investor optimism and drove the "December 31, 2026" price to a peak of 38 % before the market cooled.
OpenAI reportedly aims to raise $100B at $830B valuation, IPO groundwork underway
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%2%
TechCrunch and other outlets reported OpenAI's plans to raise up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO preparations targeting a filing in late 2026 and listing in 2027, boosting market confidence in a mid-2026 IPO.
Reports reveal OpenAI discussed raising tens of billions at about $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever, with a potential valuation up to $1 trillion and filing possibly in the second half of 2026. This reinforced the market's view of a late 2026 or 2027 IPO, but uncertainty about timing kept prices subdued.
OpenAI discusses raising tens of billions at $750 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
OpenAI held preliminary talks with investors about raising tens of billions of dollars at a valuation around $750 billion, signaling serious preparations for a large capital raise potentially linked to an IPO. This news increased market attention on OpenAI's public offering prospects, impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI discusses raising tens of billions at $750 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation around $750 billion, reflecting the company's massive capital needs and fueling speculation about an imminent IPO. This fundraising effort highlighted the urgency behind going public to access deeper capital pools.
OpenAI discusses raising up to $100 billion at $750-$830 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 rises to 18%2%
OpenAI held preliminary talks to raise up to $100 billion in funding at a valuation between $750 billion and $830 billion, indicating strong investor interest and substantial capital inflow potential. This news supported the market's positive outlook on OpenAI's IPO prospects for June 30, 2026.
OpenAI Seeks $100 Billion Funding Round at $830 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks to raise up to $100 billion, highlighting its massive capital needs and reinforcing the expectation that it would rely on private funding before pursuing a public listing.
OpenAI holds preliminary talks to raise funds at $750 billion valuation
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was in early discussions to raise tens of billions at a $750 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a near-term IPO and increasing market interest in the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI completes transition to for-profit public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI officially became a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical structural change enabling a future IPO. This move was widely reported in late 2025 and set the foundation for public market entry, positively influencing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
Reports highlight OpenAI's planned 2026 IPO with valuation near $1 trillion
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's plans for a 2026 IPO targeting a valuation between $800 billion and $1 trillion, driven by rapid revenue growth and ambitious projects like Project Stargate. This fueled market optimism, pushing prices higher for the December 31, 2026 outcome from 34% to 36%.
OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit public benefit corporation, positioning for IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI finalized its restructuring from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation in late 2025, a critical step enabling it to pursue an IPO. This corporate change was widely reported and marked a pivotal moment in OpenAI's path to going public, influencing market expectations for a 2026-2027 IPO.
Reports highlight OpenAI's $800B-$1T valuation and 2026 IPO plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
News emerged detailing OpenAI's valuation between $800 billion and $1 trillion, with plans for a 2026 IPO to fund massive expansion projects. This bolstered market optimism for a 2026 IPO, supporting higher prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Amazon in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%6%
Reports emerged that Amazon was negotiating a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, potentially valuing the company at over $500 billion. This significant funding prospect boosted investor confidence in OpenAI's growth and IPO prospects, reflected in the price rise for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
The Economist discusses OpenAI's potential giga-IPO ambitions
The Economist highlighted OpenAI's ambitions to go public, noting the shift from private funding to public market scrutiny and capital access, setting the context for IPO speculation.
OpenAI raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion capital raise to support its AI development and infrastructure, indicating ongoing cash burn and the need for substantial funding before an IPO, which tempered near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI completes corporate restructure to Public Benefit Corporation
In October 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, a structural change enabling a traditional IPO. This was a key step toward going public and influenced market expectations positively.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring 2026 IPO amid financial pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was considering an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by the need to raise capital due to high cash burn and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. This news increased market speculation and modestly lifted IPO probability prices.
OpenAI completes corporate restructuring to prepare for IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
In late 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation, simplifying ownership and governance to facilitate a future IPO. This foundational step was critical for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, setting the stage for public market entry.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest-ever funding round
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a record $122 billion capital raise, fueling speculation about its IPO prospects and boosting investor confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI valuation hits $500 billion amid growing investor interest
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI's valuation reached $500 billion in late 2025, reflecting rapid revenue growth and market excitement about its AI capabilities, setting the stage for IPO speculation in 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring IPO by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Rumors and reports surfaced that OpenAI was considering an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by financial needs and market positioning. This news sparked initial market interest and speculation about the timing of the IPO, affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI announces record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI closed a historic $122 billion funding round, significantly boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling speculation about a 2026 IPO. This massive capital raise increased investor confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects, driving up market prices for later IPO dates.
OpenAI completes large secondary share sale valuing company near $500 billion
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
In December 2025, OpenAI completed a significant secondary share sale that valued the company at about $500 billion, reinforcing high valuation expectations and fueling IPO speculation for 2026.
Disney invests $1 billion in OpenAI and licenses characters for AI video platform Sora
Walt Disney made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI and licensed over 200 iconic characters for use on OpenAI's video platform Sora. This partnership was a significant endorsement and provided capital support ahead of OpenAI's planned IPO, offering some positive market sentiment.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation amid IPO speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%3%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation. This news increased market optimism for a late 2026 IPO, reflected in rising prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI announces ambitious infrastructure spending and growth targets
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
In late 2025, OpenAI announced large infrastructure commitments and ambitious growth targets, rattling markets and increasing speculation about the timing of its IPO, contributing to price volatility.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.2 after 'code red' to counter Google’s Gemini 3
OpenAI released GPT-5.2 earlier than planned as a strategic response to Google's Gemini 3, aiming to maintain technological leadership. Despite the update, user feedback was mixed, and competitive pressures remained, sustaining market uncertainty about OpenAI's growth trajectory and IPO timing.
Elon Musk signals imminent SpaceX IPO, boosting AI IPO market sentiment
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Elon Musk's implicit confirmation of SpaceX's upcoming IPO in December 2025 positively influenced investor sentiment toward major tech IPOs, including OpenAI, as both companies are seen as leaders in their sectors. This event contributed to a modest price increase in OpenAI's December 31, 2026, IPO market option.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
News surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, signaling concrete progress toward a public offering and sparking market optimism about a 2026 IPO. This caused a spike in market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO plans within next year
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%
Sam Altman informed employees that OpenAI anticipates going public within the next year, consistent with confidential SEC filing activity. This announcement increased market confidence in a December 2026 IPO, boosting probabilities for later 2026 outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning IPO by end of 2026
News surfaced that OpenAI was exploring an IPO by the end of 2026, driven by financial needs and market positioning, sparking initial investor interest and modest price increases for later IPO dates.
OpenAI announces $122 billion capital raise for AI ambitions
OpenAI raised the largest capital amount ever, signaling strong investor confidence in its AI future despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI restructures as public benefit corporation to facilitate IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI transitioned into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation in late 2025, a critical step to enable an IPO by removing previous profit caps and aligning with public market expectations. This corporate restructuring was essential for the planned 2026-2027 IPO.
Anthropic Prepares for Massive IPO, Intensifying Race with OpenAI
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Reports that rival Anthropic was actively preparing for its own massive IPO with major banks intensified the AI public listing race, shifting market dynamics and keeping OpenAI's 2026 timelines under pressure.
OpenAI agrees to acquire Neptune to boost AI model training capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI announced acquisition of AI startup Neptune, signaling focus on growth and technology development rather than immediate IPO, which contributed to market uncertainty about IPO timing.
Anthropic prepares for large IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Reports that Anthropic is preparing for a major IPO added competitive pressure and uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects, influencing market sentiment and contributing to price declines for OpenAI's IPO outcomes.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to boost model training capabilities
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%1%
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, enhancing OpenAI's AI development infrastructure. This strategic move signaled OpenAI's growth and investment in technology, positively influencing market sentiment for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
Anthropic prepares massive IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Anthropic, a key competitor, announced plans for a large IPO potentially in 2026, raising competitive pressure on OpenAI. This development contributed to market skepticism about OpenAI's ability to IPO by mid-2026, negatively impacting the June 30, 2026 outcome price.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to boost model training capabilities
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling its aggressive expansion and investment in AI infrastructure. This move underscored OpenAI's growth strategy ahead of its anticipated IPO, impacting investor perceptions of its readiness and capital needs.
Anthropic prepares for large IPO, intensifying competition with OpenAI
Reports that Anthropic is preparing for a major IPO in 2026-2027 increased competitive pressure on OpenAI, likely dampening market enthusiasm for OpenAI's IPO prospects and contributing to lower prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI agrees to acquire Neptune to enhance AI model training
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, to improve its internal AI infrastructure. While significant for AI capabilities, this acquisition did not directly impact IPO timing expectations.
OpenAI agrees to acquire AI startup Neptune to enhance model training
OpenAI announced the acquisition of Neptune, a startup providing AI model training tools, signaling continued investment in AI capabilities but not directly impacting IPO timing expectations.
OpenAI acquires AI startup Neptune to boost capabilities ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%2%
OpenAI acquired Neptune, signaling ongoing expansion and preparation for a public offering, but also highlighting the company's focus on growth rather than immediate IPO timing, which maintained market uncertainty.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals no near-term IPO plans despite growth
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
In November 2025, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that the company was focused on scaling rather than rushing to an IPO, dampening immediate expectations for a 2026 public offering and causing some market skepticism.
OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation faces significant cuts amid market skepticism
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports indicated that OpenAI’s private valuation was under pressure with investors cutting valuations due to competitive pressures and financial losses. This contributed to continued price declines for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome, reflecting diminished near-term IPO enthusiasm.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declares 'Code Red' amid rising competition from Google's Gemini 3
In response to Google's Gemini 3 outperforming OpenAI's models and gaining market share, CEO Sam Altman issued an internal 'code red' to prioritize ChatGPT improvements and delay other projects. This indicated competitive pressure and urgency, contributing to market doubts about OpenAI's near-term prospects.
OpenAI declares 'code red' to improve ChatGPT amid rising competition
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
OpenAI announced a 'code red' effort to enhance ChatGPT in response to increasing competition from Google and Anthropic, signaling a strategic focus that impacted investor confidence in the company's growth prospects ahead of IPO plans.
OpenAI's $500 billion valuation faces significant cuts amid funding challenges
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's $500 billion valuation was under pressure with new investors cutting valuations before investing, signaling funding difficulties and raising doubts about near-term IPO prospects. This contributed to a decline in IPO market prices, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI valuation faces significant cut amid competitive pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
Reports indicated OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is under pressure with potential down rounds due to competition and financial losses, raising doubts about the company's near-term IPO prospects and contributing to further price declines.
OpenAI targets public debut as soon as Q4 2026, backed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was aiming for an IPO in late 2026, led by major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, fueling early market optimism for a 2026 public offering.
OpenAI announces corporate restructuring to facilitate IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
OpenAI completed a significant corporate restructure in October 2025, converting to a Public Benefit Corporation, enabling a traditional IPO. This structural change was critical for IPO feasibility and influenced market expectations.
OpenAI restructures and raises $122 billion to fund AI ambitions
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
OpenAI completed a major capital raise of $122 billion to accelerate AI development and infrastructure, signaling the need for substantial funding before an IPO. This bolstered the company's financial position but also highlighted ongoing cash burn, influencing cautious market sentiment about a near-term IPO.
OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit status aiming for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
In late 2025, OpenAI transitioned from a nonprofit to a for-profit public benefit corporation to facilitate a public offering. This structural change was a critical step toward the planned IPO, signaling to markets that a public listing was becoming more concrete, though no exact date was set yet.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
In December 2025, reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO targets potentially exceeding $1 trillion. This news highlighted the company's ambitious growth and funding needs, influencing market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declares 'code red' to improve ChatGPT amid competition
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Facing intense competition from Google's Gemini 3 and Anthropic, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman issued an internal 'code red' memo prioritizing improvements to ChatGPT and delaying other projects. This reflects operational challenges and competitive pressure that may impact IPO timing and investor confidence.
OpenAI subscriber revenue growth slowing, CEO Sam Altman explores federal assistance
Edward Dowd reported that OpenAI's subscriber revenue growth is slowing, leading to speculation about CEO Sam Altman exploring assistance from the U.S. federal government to support funding needs.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence in a potential public offering and causing a rise in IPO odds.
Reports emerge of OpenAI exploring 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for a 2026 IPO, driven by the need to fund its ambitious $1.4 trillion AI infrastructure plan and ongoing cash burn. The company was reportedly in informal talks with Wall Street banks and hiring finance executives, signaling serious IPO preparations.
Reports emerge of OpenAI considering IPO in second half of 2026
Late 2025 reports indicated OpenAI was preparing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 as more realistic. This news sparked market speculation and price movements reflecting uncertainty about timing.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning IPO in late 2026 with $1 trillion valuation
Multiple media outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in late 2026, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion. These reports fueled market speculation and increased interest in the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting optimism about the company's growth and market potential despite no official announcement.
OpenAI's IPO rumors spark early market speculation for 2026 listing
Starting late November 2025, media reports and rumors about OpenAI's potential IPO in 2026 began circulating, driving initial market speculation and modest price movements for the December 31, 2026, outcome as investors weighed the likelihood of a public offering.
OpenAI executives and researchers depart amid competitive pressures
Throughout 2025, OpenAI experienced significant talent departures to competitors like Meta, raising concerns about its ability to innovate and execute its growth plans, which likely contributed to cautious market sentiment on IPO timing and likelihood.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit alleging misconduct by OpenAI's leadership was dismissed due to delay in filing, removing a significant legal risk for OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal improved market sentiment, particularly for longer-term IPO dates, as legal uncertainties diminished.
Larry Summers resigns from OpenAI board amid Epstein email scandal
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stepped down from OpenAI's board following public backlash over his correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein. This high-profile departure added to leadership instability concerns, negatively impacting investor sentiment about OpenAI's governance ahead of its IPO.
Federal judge denies dismissal of Elon Musk’s antitrust lawsuit against OpenAI and Apple
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
A federal judge allowed Elon Musk’s X Corp and xAI lawsuit accusing OpenAI and Apple of conspiring to monopolize AI and smartphone markets to proceed, increasing regulatory and legal risks for OpenAI. This heightened uncertainty contributed to price declines in the IPO market, especially for nearer-term outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI planning a 2026 IPO amid massive fundraising efforts
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%1%
In November 2025, reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing for a 2026 IPO, targeting a valuation near $1 trillion and planning to raise $100 billion to fund its AI infrastructure expansion. These reports increased market interest but also highlighted the company's significant operating losses and funding needs.
OpenAI CFO indicates IPO aiming for 2027 listing
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%8%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO listing, though some advisers predict it could come sooner. This reinforced market doubts about a mid-2026 IPO, causing further price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Secondary share sales imply OpenAI valuation exceeding $500 billion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Secondary sales in late 2025 implied valuations around $500 billion, tempering some IPO enthusiasm and causing a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 outcome price, reflecting doubts about a near-term IPO.
Market skepticism grows amid lack of concrete IPO timeline
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Despite ongoing IPO speculation, no official filing or date was announced, leading to a decline in market confidence about a 2026 IPO, reflected in price drops for June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
Analysts express skepticism about OpenAI IPO happening in 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%44%
Reports and expert opinions emerged suggesting that OpenAI might delay or never conduct an IPO in 2026 due to the need for massive revenue growth and financial commitments, contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%6%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round to support its AI ambitions and cover cash burn, increasing the likelihood of an IPO in 2026 to raise more capital despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI restructuring completed, unlocking $30 billion funding
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
OpenAI finalized its restructuring, creating a public benefit corporation and unlocking $30 billion in funding contingent on this completion. This development supported the company's IPO ambitions but also highlighted the complexity and timing uncertainties, contributing to moderate price fluctuations.
Analysis highlights challenges for OpenAI's IPO ambitions
CNN Business analyzed the financial and operational challenges OpenAI faces to meet the high revenue growth needed for a successful IPO, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to continued price declines for 2026 IPO outcomes.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not the company's focus, casting doubt on 2026 listing
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following earlier reports, OpenAI clarified that an IPO is not their current focus and no date has been set, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to a decline in IPO probability prices for mid-2026 dates.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest private funding round
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the largest ever in Silicon Valley, which raised questions about the immediate need for an IPO and contributed to a sharp drop in IPO market prices for mid-2026.
Reports question likelihood of OpenAI IPO in 2026 despite groundwork
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%6%
Media reports and analysts expressed skepticism about OpenAI going public in 2026 due to massive capital needs and profitability challenges, leading to a decline in market prices for IPO outcomes.
OpenAI's IPO price expectations tempered amid market uncertainty
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Following initial IPO excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply from 47% to 11% by November 8, 2025, reflecting investor caution about the timing and feasibility of the IPO within the near term.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI's 2026 IPO prospects
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO optimism, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply, reflecting investor doubts about OpenAI's ability to go public that soon amid high cash burn and fundraising needs.
OpenAI's IPO prospects dampened amid market uncertainty and legal risks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Following initial IPO plans, concerns about ongoing copyright lawsuits and competitive pressures emerged, causing investor skepticism and a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability from 47% to 10%.
Market reacts to early IPO timing uncertainty and competitive pressures
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Following initial excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome dropped sharply from 47% to 11% by Nov 8, 2025, reflecting investor doubts about the feasibility of a mid-2026 IPO amid competition and internal challenges.
OpenAI CFO expresses doubts about 2026 IPO readiness
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing risks from spending commitments and organizational unpreparedness. This internal disagreement with CEO Sam Altman dampened market confidence, leading to a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO suggests possible federal government financing backstop
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar mentioned the possibility of federal government support to backstop financing for future data center deals, indicating challenges in funding capital expenditures. This raised concerns about OpenAI's financial needs and further reduced near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI reports $11.5 billion quarterly loss amid AI bubble concerns
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Microsoft filings revealed OpenAI lost $11.5 billion in the last quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model and valuation. This financial strain contributed to sharp price drops in the IPO market, especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Market skepticism grows on OpenAI IPO timing and valuation
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Following initial IPO news, market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO option dropped sharply, reflecting investor doubts about the feasibility of a mid-2026 IPO given OpenAI's massive capital needs and restructuring complexities.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO is Not in Near-Term Plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
OpenAI's newly appointed CFO Sarah Friar cooled immediate public listing expectations by stating that an IPO is not on the cards right now, focusing instead on scaling the company's operations.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Walks Back Controversial 'Federal Backstop' Comments
December 31, 2026 rises to 41%2%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar clarified her remarks from a Wall Street Journal event where she suggested the company might seek a federal guarantee or backstop for its massive infrastructure investments. The clarification sought to reassure markets that OpenAI was not seeking a taxpayer-funded bailout.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar states IPO is not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar cooled down immediate IPO speculation by stating that a public listing is not on the cards right now, shifting focus back to scaling operations.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in largest capital raise ever
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%6%
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round to support its AI ambitions and cover massive cash burn, increasing likelihood of a 2026 IPO to raise further capital.
OpenAI CFO says IPO not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%15%
At the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated an IPO is not in the startup's near-term plans, citing the company's focus on scaling operations. This contradicted earlier reports of a 2027 listing.
OpenAI CFO states IPO not in near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
At the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said an IPO is not on the cards right now, contradicting earlier reports and dampening near-term IPO expectations, leading to a sharp price decline for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says IPO is not in near-term plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%2%
Speaking at the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an initial public offering is not on the cards right now, cooling down immediate market speculation.
OpenAI CFO says IPO not in near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO is not on the cards in the near term, clarifying that the company is focusing on scaling operations rather than going public soon. This statement led to a sharp decline in the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome price.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says IPO not on the cards in near term
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
At the Wall Street Journal's Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an IPO is not planned in the near term and that the company is focused on scaling operations rather than pursuing a public offering soon. This statement countered earlier reports and caused market prices for near-term IPO outcomes to drop sharply.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by federal jury
December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit which removed a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively influenced market confidence in a potential IPO.
Sam Altman Dismisses Specific IPO Timeline Rumors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the intense speculation, stating that while an IPO is expected eventually, there is no specific timeline or set date for going public.
Market skepticism grows on OpenAI's 2026 IPO timing
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Following initial excitement, market prices for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome dropped sharply, reflecting growing skepticism about the feasibility of a 2026 IPO. Analysts noted the IPO plans were preliminary and could shift to 2027 or later, dampening near-term expectations.
OpenAI signs $38 billion cloud computing deal with Amazon
OpenAI announced a seven-year, $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services to provide cloud infrastructure, marking a significant expansion of its AI infrastructure and signaling substantial capital requirements ahead of any IPO.
Analysts predict OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027, with 2027 favored
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Industry analysis suggested that while OpenAI aims for a historic $1 trillion IPO, the listing is more likely in 2027 than 2026, reflecting cautious market sentiment and contributing to further price declines for the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Dismisses Specific IPO Timeline Rumors
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
CEO Sam Altman addressed the intense speculation, clarifying that while a public offering is expected eventually, there is no specific timeline or set date for going public.
Speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing shifting to 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
Analysis and commentary suggested OpenAI's IPO might occur in 2026 or more likely 2027, reflecting uncertainty and caution in the market about the timing, which pressured the December 31, 2026 outcome price downward.
OpenAI IPO odds drop sharply amid cautious investor sentiment
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
By early November 2025, market prices for OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing investor caution and uncertainty about the timing of the IPO.
Sam Altman expresses ambivalence about OpenAI going public soon
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Altman stated he had no specific timeline for an IPO and expressed mixed feelings about being CEO of a public company, which contributed to market uncertainty and declining IPO price probabilities.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027 or later
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Analyses and reports indicated that while OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, the listing might occur in 2027 or beyond, not as early as mid-2026. This increased market skepticism, pushing prices lower for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Speculation grows OpenAI IPO may occur in 2027 rather than 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Market commentary and analysis suggested the IPO might be delayed to 2027, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and contributing to a gradual decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO could come as soon as late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Multiple reports including Forbes and SiliconANGLE indicated OpenAI is targeting a 2026-2027 IPO window, with CFO Sarah Friar suggesting 2027 as more realistic but some advisers predicting late 2026. This fueled market speculation and price volatility.
Speculation grows OpenAI IPO may occur in 2027 rather than 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Reports and analysis suggested OpenAI's IPO might be delayed to 2027, citing CFO statements and market conditions. This speculation further pressured prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome, reflecting diminished confidence in a mid-2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO dismisses IPO timeline rumors
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Sam Altman stated there is no specific timeline for OpenAI's IPO, contrary to recent reports suggesting a 2026-2027 listing.
Analysts predict OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%5%
Industry analysis suggested OpenAI's IPO is likely in 2026 or more probably 2027, following its corporate restructuring. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price decline to around 35%.
Analysis suggests OpenAI IPO likely in 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%2%
An AI-focused analysis indicated that OpenAI is likely to conduct a historic $1 trillion IPO in 2026 or more likely 2027, reflecting market skepticism about an earlier IPO. This reinforced the market's downward adjustment of the June 30, 2026 IPO probability.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar States IPO Is Not on the Cards in the Near Term
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar clarified that the company has no plans for an IPO in the near term, dampening speculation of an imminent 2026 listing.
OpenAI IPO not on the cards: CFO Sarah Friar confirms no near-term plans
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
According to OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, citing a Wall Street Journal report, the company has no plans for an IPO in the near term, signaling OpenAI remains a private entity despite its massive valuation.
OpenAI CEO calls IPO 'most likely' path amid market speculation
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely option for OpenAI, reinforcing the possibility of a public offering but without a set date. This statement maintained market interest but also reflected uncertainty, leading to a further price drop to 40%.
OpenAI IPO Odds Collapse as No Near-Term Public Listing Materializes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
At the start of the analysis window, the market experienced a sharp downward correction. The June 30, 2026 option plummeted by 36 points as traders realized that despite ongoing speculation, there was no official timeline or S-1 filing planned for the near term.
OpenAI CEO says IPO is 'most likely' option but no set timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI, fueling optimism, but the company also said it has no set time in mind for going public, tempering expectations and causing some price volatility.
OpenAI announces conversion to public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI completed a corporate restructuring, establishing the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation with a 26% stake, which unlocked $30 billion in Softbank funding contingent on completion.
OpenAI CEO denies fixed IPO timeline but confirms future public offering
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman publicly dismissed rumors of a fixed IPO date, stating no set timeline exists despite acknowledging an IPO is likely in the future. This statement introduced skepticism and uncertainty, contributing to a decline in market prices for the June 30, 2026 outcome as investors reassessed the immediacy of the IPO.
OpenAI officially restructures as public benefit corporation to enable IPO
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI transitioned into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical step to facilitate an IPO. This restructuring removed previous profit caps and aligned the company with public market expectations, reinforcing IPO speculation.
OpenAI IPO plans reported with possible filing in late 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Multiple reports including Reuters and The Economic Times indicated OpenAI's IPO could happen as early as late 2026 or more likely in 2027, with CFO Sarah Friar suggesting 2027. This tempered initial enthusiasm and introduced timeline uncertainty, causing price declines.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Trillion-Dollar IPO Slated for Late 2026 or 2027
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with potential filing as early as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly aimed for 2027.
OpenAI CFO signals 2027 IPO target but advisors suggest late 2026 possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisors predicted a possible earlier IPO in late 2026, adding uncertainty and mixed signals to the market.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Juggernaut IPO at Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI CEO says IPO is 'most likely' but no set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman confirmed an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI but emphasized there is no fixed timeline, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to price declines especially for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI announces plans for IPO as soon as late 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Forbes reported OpenAI's plans for an IPO possibly in late 2026 to fund its massive AI infrastructure buildout, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026-2027 IPO window.
OpenAI spokesperson states IPO is not current focus, no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
Following IPO rumors, OpenAI officially stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, injecting caution into the market and causing a pullback in IPO likelihood prices.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, citing three sources familiar with the matter. This announcement confirmed the company's intention to go public, driving market speculation.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO likely in 2027 but possibly sooner
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company aims for a 2027 IPO, though some advisers predict it could happen in late 2026. This tempered enthusiasm, contributing to a price decline from 50% to 46%.
OpenAI completes nonprofit restructuring for IPO
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
OpenAI finalized its transition to a for-profit structure with the OpenAI Foundation holding a 26% stake, unlocking $30 billion in funding from Softbank contingent on completion.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms future public offering
Sam Altman addressed IPO rumors, stating there's no specific timeline but confirming an IPO is expected eventually. This reinforced the company's commitment to a public listing.
OpenAI plans IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports from Forbes and CoinDesk detailed OpenAI's plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, following a complex restructuring that unlocked significant funding. Despite the positive outlook, the early-stage nature and opposition from rivals introduced uncertainty, contributing to price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans targeting late 2026 or 2027
December 31, 2026 drops to 50%14%
Following restructuring announcements, OpenAI publicly confirmed plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, fueling further market speculation and supporting elevated prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reports potential $1 trillion IPO valuation for 2027
OpenAI reportedly plans a 2027 IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion, positioning it as one of the largest tech IPOs ever, with potential capital raising of $60 billion.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says IPO is the most likely path, but no set date
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
In a staff livestream, CEO Sam Altman confirmed that an IPO is the most likely future path for OpenAI given capital needs, but emphasized that no date has been set, tempering market expectations.
OpenAI CEO confirms future public offering
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the 'most likely' option for OpenAI, while also emphasizing there is no set date for the IPO, directly countering earlier reports of a 2026-2027 timeline.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans but CEO denies fixed timeline
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the "most likely" option but emphasized there is no set date, countering reports of a 2026-2027 IPO. This introduced uncertainty, leading to a sharp drop in the market's confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome and a decline for the December 31, 2026 option.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Multiple reports including Forbes and SiliconANGLE confirmed OpenAI's plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, following its restructuring into a public benefit corporation. The company emphasized that an IPO is not the current focus, but market speculation increased on the timing and valuation, impacting market prices.
Market opens on OpenAI IPO timing speculation
The market opened with roughly 50% odds for OpenAI completing an IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting early speculation and uncertainty about the company's public offering timeline.
OpenAI signals early‑2026 IPO filing, targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion and might file in the second half of 2026. The news sparked a sharp swing in market sentiment – the price rose to a 64 % peak on the same day and then fell dramatically over the next few days as investors digested the uncertainty around timing and valuation.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, clearing path to IPO
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
The same day OpenAI announced its conversion from a nonprofit‑controlled capped‑profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, making a traditional IPO legally possible. The structural change reinforced market expectations of a future listing and contributed to the early rally that later reversed.
OpenAI announces corporate restructure and partnership updates
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
OpenAI completed a complex restructuring, establishing a nonprofit arm holding 26% stake and Microsoft holding 27%, signaling preparation for a public offering. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 or 2027 IPO.
Reports confirm OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Multiple sources confirmed OpenAI's consideration of filing with securities regulators in late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a possible 2027 listing but advisors suggesting late 2026. This fueled market speculation and price volatility for IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO signals possible 2027 IPO, some advisers suggest late 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers predicted a possible late 2026 listing, creating mixed market expectations and contributing to price volatility across outcomes.
OpenAI CEO dismisses fixed IPO timeline despite speculation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman publicly stated there is no set date for an IPO, contradicting media reports and causing a sharp drop in market confidence for the June 30, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI reportedly lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO as early as late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file with regulators as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI CFO indicates IPO aimed for 2027 but could be sooner
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar told associates the company is aiming for a 2027 IPO, but some advisers predict it could come as early as late 2026. This added uncertainty about the exact timing, causing some market price volatility.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Blockbuster IPO Targeting Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, aiming for a valuation of up to $1 trillion. While CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 was more realistic, advisers predicted it could come by late 2026, driving initial market sentiment.
Market prices peak optimism for OpenAI IPO announcement in late 2025
At the start of the analysis window, markets showed peak optimism with prices near 50% for a December 31, 2026 IPO, reflecting early confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans based on industry speculation and anticipation.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says IPO is 'most likely' but no set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
CEO Sam Altman confirmed that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI but emphasized there is no set timeline, creating uncertainty about the exact IPO date. This contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for the June 30, 2026, IPO option.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Juggernaut IPO at Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 50%23%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as soon as the second half of 2026, which could value the company at up to $1 trillion. This initial report sparked a wave of optimism, setting the baseline expectations for a late 2026 public debut.
OpenAI restructures as Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and signaling serious intent to go public.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation enabling traditional IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
OpenAI restructured from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, a key structural change that made a traditional IPO possible and increased market confidence in eventual public listing.
OpenAI completes restructuring into public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI announced a corporate restructure converting from nonprofit to a public benefit corporation, reducing reliance on Microsoft and enabling a path to IPO. This structural change was a key step toward going public and influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI officially becomes a public benefit corporation amid IPO talks
OpenAI completed a corporate restructuring to become a public benefit corporation, a step seen as preparatory for an IPO. This move was widely reported and reinforced expectations of a public listing in 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, possibly filing in the second half of 2026. This news initially boosted market optimism about a 2026 IPO, reflected in higher prices for the December 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026 outcomes.
OpenAI facilitates $6.6 billion employee secondary share sale at $400 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Over 600 current and former employees sold shares worth $6.6 billion in a private tender offer, marking one of the largest pre-IPO liquidity events and signaling strong private market demand and valuation, fueling IPO speculation.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Signals Potential 2027 Listing to Associates
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
While advisers predicted a late 2026 listing, CFO Sarah Friar privately communicated a target of 2027, which immediately cooled expectations for mid-2026 outcomes.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO
Reuters reported OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with a filing possibly in the second half of 2026.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO possibly as early as late 2026, aiming for a valuation up to $1 trillion. While the IPO was not the company's immediate focus, this news initially supported market optimism for the December 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026 outcomes before subsequent negative developments.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for Historic IPO Targeting Up to $1 Trillion Valuation
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file paperwork as soon as the second half of 2026.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans but denies set date
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%8%
OpenAI spokesperson stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, tempering market enthusiasm despite ongoing IPO preparations. CEO Sam Altman indicated an IPO is the most likely path but without a timeline.
OpenAI CEO confirms IPO is likely but denies set date
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely option for OpenAI but emphasized there is no set date, countering some media reports. This tempered market enthusiasm, contributing to a decline in IPO probability prices.
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for IPO Valued at Up to $1 Trillion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, following its transition to a for-profit public benefit corporation. This initial report anchored market expectations around a late 2026 debut.
OpenAI confirms no set IPO date despite preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
OpenAI spokesperson stated that an IPO is not their focus and no date has been set, tempering market expectations despite ongoing IPO groundwork and high valuation rumors.
OpenAI eyes $1 trillion IPO as early as 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
Reuters reported OpenAI was considering an IPO as early as the second half of 2026, with some advisers predicting a 2027 listing. This fueled speculation about a potential 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets IPO as early as second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI could file for an IPO as soon as late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a 2027 listing but advisers predicting sooner. This fueled market speculation and initial price strength for the December 31, 2026 outcome but also uncertainty for nearer-term IPO dates.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirms IPO is likely but no set date
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely path for OpenAI given capital needs but emphasized no set date has been established, tempering market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI considers filing IPO paperwork in second half of 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's consideration to file IPO paperwork in late 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating a possible 2027 listing but some advisers expecting late 2026. This added uncertainty influenced market pricing.
OpenAI confirms plans for IPO in late 2026 after restructuring to public benefit corporation
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
OpenAI announced its restructuring to a public benefit corporation and confirmed plans for an IPO as soon as late 2026, unlocking additional funding and strengthening its partnership with Microsoft. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, initially supporting prices but also introducing some uncertainty about exact timing.
OpenAI confirms restructuring to public benefit corporation, paving way for IPO
OpenAI announced its conversion to a public benefit corporation, with the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation now owning 26% of the for-profit entity, which is expected to unlock $30 billion in additional funding.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman dismisses IPO timeline rumors, confirms future public offering
In response to IPO speculation, Altman stated there is no set date for OpenAI's IPO, though he confirmed the company is preparing for a public offering.
OpenAI confirms IPO plans post restructuring, eyes late 2026 or 2027 listing
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%9%
Following its restructuring into a public benefit corporation, OpenAI announced plans for an IPO potentially in late 2026 or 2027, with Microsoft holding a large stake and Softbank unlocking $30 billion in funding. This reinforced the market's initial optimism but also introduced timing uncertainty, causing some price volatility.
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