Jack Lowden leads the market at 48.3% implied probability after recent insider comments, including from co-star Gary Oldman, positioned him as a strong contender alongside his established profile in spy thrillers like Slow Horses. Callum Turner follows at 7.6% following earlier momentum from projects such as Masters of the Air, while relative newcomer Jack Barton sits at 5.1% amid reports of screen tests for a shortlist that also includes Paul Mescal and Harris Dickinson. The 25.6% on no selection yet reflects Amazon MGM Studios’ methodical approach under new producers Amy Pascal and David Heyman, with director Denis Villeneuve and writer Steven Knight guiding the process for a potential 2028 release. A decision could come before year-end, though the secretive academy-style selection leaves room for shifts.