The US-Israel-Iran conflict, initiated February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—continues unabated on day 37. Overnight into April 4, Iran fired multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions impacting central areas like Tel Aviv and causing injuries, while US and Israeli forces struck Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz targets. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, and President Trump warned of intensified operations absent a deal. Iranian missile salvos have declined amid capability degradation, but proxy attacks via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, signaling to traders a protracted war with diplomatic or escalation tipping points ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$13,310,905 Vol.
Mar 15, 2026
April 15
4%
April 7
1%
April 30
18%
May 15
29%
June 30
56%
December 31
82%
$13,310,905 Vol.
April 15
$2,044,373 Vol.
4%
April 7
$1,080,896 Vol.
1%
April 30
$1,364,821 Vol.
18%
May 15
$1,851,222 Vol.
29%
June 30
$1,307,398 Vol.
56%
December 31
$506,660 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, initiated February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—continues unabated on day 37. Overnight into April 4, Iran fired multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions impacting central areas like Tel Aviv and causing injuries, while US and Israeli forces struck Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz targets. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, and President Trump warned of intensified operations absent a deal. Iranian missile salvos have declined amid capability degradation, but proxy attacks via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, signaling to traders a protracted war with diplomatic or escalation tipping points ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$13,310,905End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, initiated February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—continues unabated on day 37. Overnight into April 4, Iran fired multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions impacting central areas like Tel Aviv and causing injuries, while US and Israeli forces struck Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz targets. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, and President Trump warned of intensified operations absent a deal. Iranian missile salvos have declined amid capability degradation, but proxy attacks via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, signaling to traders a protracted war with diplomatic or escalation tipping points ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$13,310,905End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The US-Israel-Iran conflict, initiated February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—continues unabated on day 37. Overnight into April 4, Iran fired multiple ballistic missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions impacting central areas like Tel Aviv and causing injuries, while US and Israeli forces struck Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz targets. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, and President Trump warned of intensified operations absent a deal. Iranian missile salvos have declined amid capability degradation, but proxy attacks via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, signaling to traders a protracted war with diplomatic or escalation tipping points ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions