**The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with alleged low-yield Russian and Chinese activities initially raised the prospect of change, yet Energy Department statements quickly clarified that any near-term work would involve non-explosive system tests rather than fission or fusion detonations. No explosive test has occurred, and official positions continue to emphasize verification through simulation and non-yield methods. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns only single-digit implied probabilities to a U.S. explosive test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of confirmed plans, ongoing international scrutiny of the CTBT regime, and the technical readiness of alternative certification approaches. No major scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear positioned to alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$795,477 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
6%
$795,477 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,746 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with alleged low-yield Russian and Chinese activities initially raised the prospect of change, yet Energy Department statements quickly clarified that any near-term work would involve non-explosive system tests rather than fission or fusion detonations. No explosive test has occurred, and official positions continue to emphasize verification through simulation and non-yield methods. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns only single-digit implied probabilities to a U.S. explosive test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of confirmed plans, ongoing international scrutiny of the CTBT regime, and the technical readiness of alternative certification approaches. No major scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear positioned to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with alleged low-yield Russian and Chinese activities initially raised the prospect of change, yet Energy Department statements quickly clarified that any near-term work would involve non-explosive system tests rather than fission or fusion detonations. No explosive test has occurred, and official positions continue to emphasize verification through simulation and non-yield methods. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns only single-digit implied probabilities to a U.S. explosive test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of confirmed plans, ongoing international scrutiny of the CTBT regime, and the technical readiness of alternative certification approaches. No major scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear positioned to alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with alleged low-yield Russian and Chinese activities initially raised the prospect of change, yet Energy Department statements quickly clarified that any near-term work would involve non-explosive system tests rather than fission or fusion detonations. No explosive test has occurred, and official positions continue to emphasize verification through simulation and non-yield methods. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns only single-digit implied probabilities to a U.S. explosive test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of confirmed plans, ongoing international scrutiny of the CTBT regime, and the technical readiness of alternative certification approaches. No major scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear positioned to alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions