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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

icon for Brazil Presidential Election
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 44.4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 37%

Renan Santos 5.7%

Romeu Zema 4.0%

Polymarket

$64,334,982 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 44.4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 37%

Renan Santos 5.7%

Romeu Zema 4.0%

Polymarket

$64,334,982 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,745,512 Vol.

44%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,997,886 Vol.

37%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$4,511,450 Vol.

6%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$1,637,596 Vol.

4%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$1,730,969 Vol.

4%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$4,079,590 Vol.

3%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$2,031,958 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$2,999,297 Vol.

1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$4,767,094 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$1,955,820 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$7,544,487 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$9,262,895 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$7,293,931 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$4,260,013 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$2,516,948 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 44.4% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, slightly ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 36.5%, reflecting recent polls showing statistical ties or narrow Flávio edges in simulated runoffs—such as AtlasIntel's April 22–27 survey (Flávio 47.8%, Lula 47.5%) and Datafolha's April 7–9 results (Flávio 46%, Lula 45%). The race remains tightly contested amid high rejection rates for both (over 50%), Lula's slipping approval amid cost-of-living pressures, and Flávio consolidating the right-wing vote after rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew for gubernatorial bids. Separation could arise from economic data, coalition endorsements like pending Michelle Bolsonaro support, or upcoming polls such as Real Time Big Data, with Congress's recent reduction of Jair Bolsonaro's sentence energizing conservatives.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$64,334,982
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 44.4% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, slightly ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 36.5%, reflecting recent polls showing statistical ties or narrow Flávio edges in simulated runoffs—such as AtlasIntel's April 22–27 survey (Flávio 47.8%, Lula 47.5%) and Datafolha's April 7–9 results (Flávio 46%, Lula 45%). The race remains tightly contested amid high rejection rates for both (over 50%), Lula's slipping approval amid cost-of-living pressures, and Flávio consolidating the right-wing vote after rivals like Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew for gubernatorial bids. Separation could arise from economic data, coalition endorsements like pending Michelle Bolsonaro support, or upcoming polls such as Real Time Big Data, with Congress's recent reduction of Jair Bolsonaro's sentence energizing conservatives.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$64,334,982
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

68%
icon for Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

36%
icon for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

36%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 44%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $64.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.