Traders assign an 87% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026 because recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in euro-area energy prices, lifting staff inflation projections to 2.6% for the year. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% through April meetings while explicitly discussing the need for tighter policy, with markets now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. Surveys of economists align with this shift, reflecting data-dependent signals from officials that prioritize anchoring inflation expectations over easing. Sustained energy cost pressures and resilient core readings continue to support this consensus, though any rapid de-escalation in commodity markets could alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 87% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026 because recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in euro-area energy prices, lifting staff inflation projections to 2.6% for the year. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% through April meetings while explicitly discussing the need for tighter policy, with markets now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. Surveys of economists align with this shift, reflecting data-dependent signals from officials that prioritize anchoring inflation expectations over easing. Sustained energy cost pressures and resilient core readings continue to support this consensus, though any rapid de-escalation in commodity markets could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,063End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 87% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026 because recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in euro-area energy prices, lifting staff inflation projections to 2.6% for the year. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% through April meetings while explicitly discussing the need for tighter policy, with markets now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. Surveys of economists align with this shift, reflecting data-dependent signals from officials that prioritize anchoring inflation expectations over easing. Sustained energy cost pressures and resilient core readings continue to support this consensus, though any rapid de-escalation in commodity markets could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,063End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 87% probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026 because recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in euro-area energy prices, lifting staff inflation projections to 2.6% for the year. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% through April meetings while explicitly discussing the need for tighter policy, with markets now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. Surveys of economists align with this shift, reflecting data-dependent signals from officials that prioritize anchoring inflation expectations over easing. Sustained energy cost pressures and resilient core readings continue to support this consensus, though any rapid de-escalation in commodity markets could alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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