Climate &amp; Science

10%

Yes10%No90%

$2M Vol.

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

48%

Yes48%No52%

Goldman Sachs

26%

Yes26%No74%

$1M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

32%

Yes32%No68%

11–13

23%

Yes23%No77%

$1M Vol.

Daily

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

45%

28%

Yes28%No72%

$2M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+

96%

Yes96%No4%

No IPO before 2028

Yes3%No97%

$3M Vol.

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.25–1.29ºC

59%

Yes59%No41%

>1.29ºC

29%

Yes29%No71%

$230K Vol.

Monthly

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

150+

99%

130–149

$185K Vol.

Monthly

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

49%

Yes49%No51%

1.8T–2.0T

21%

Yes21%No79%

$668K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

98%

Yes98%No2%

↑3k

86%

$7M Vol.

Monthly

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$176K Vol.

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

chance

Yes

$63K Vol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

$231K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

90%

Yes90%No10%

OpenAI

Yes4%No96%

$2M Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

99%

1st hottest

$280K Vol.

Monthly

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

45%

35%

Yes35%No65%

$677K Vol.

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

42%

chance

Yes

$277K Vol.

Daily

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$38K Vol.

All

489

Daily Temperature

194

Pandemics

Weather

234

Space

Earthquakes

Hurricanes

Global Temp

Measles

Natural Disasters

Climate & Science

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

47%

Yes47%No53%

Other

44%

Yes44%No56%

$4M Vol.

NCAA Tournament

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T

95%

Yes95%No5%

>$1.2T

91%

Yes91%No9%

$980K Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

86%

10%

Yes10%No90%

$2M Vol.

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

48%

Yes48%No52%

Goldman Sachs

26%

Yes26%No74%

$1M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

32%

Yes32%No68%

11–13

23%

Yes23%No77%

$1M Vol.

Daily

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

45%

28%

Yes28%No72%

$2M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+

96%

Yes96%No4%

No IPO before 2028

Yes3%No97%

$3M Vol.

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.25–1.29ºC

59%

Yes59%No41%

>1.29ºC

29%

Yes29%No71%

$230K Vol.

Monthly

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

150+

99%

130–149

$185K Vol.

Monthly

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

49%

Yes49%No51%

1.8T–2.0T

21%

Yes21%No79%

$668K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

98%

Yes98%No2%

↑3k

86%

$7M Vol.

Monthly

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$176K Vol.

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

chance

Yes

$63K Vol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

$231K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

90%

Yes90%No10%

OpenAI

Yes4%No96%

$2M Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

99%

1st hottest

$280K Vol.

Monthly

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

45%