USGS seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events worldwide, aligning with the typical annual rate of roughly one such megaquake and the absence of any M8+ activity since the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula event. Current catalogs indicate only modest activity, including scattered M6 events and localized swarms with no precursors like accelerated strain or foreshock sequences on major subduction zones. Trader consensus at 92% for “No” reflects this baseline rarity and lack of anomalous signals in official data. A sudden megathrust rupture remains possible given tectonic uncertainty, though short-term forecasts and strain measurements provide no supporting indicators ahead of the June 30 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events worldwide, aligning with the typical annual rate of roughly one such megaquake and the absence of any M8+ activity since the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula event. Current catalogs indicate only modest activity, including scattered M6 events and localized swarms with no precursors like accelerated strain or foreshock sequences on major subduction zones. Trader consensus at 92% for “No” reflects this baseline rarity and lack of anomalous signals in official data. A sudden megathrust rupture remains possible given tectonic uncertainty, though short-term forecasts and strain measurements provide no supporting indicators ahead of the June 30 resolution window.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$69,331End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events worldwide, aligning with the typical annual rate of roughly one such megaquake and the absence of any M8+ activity since the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula event. Current catalogs indicate only modest activity, including scattered M6 events and localized swarms with no precursors like accelerated strain or foreshock sequences on major subduction zones. Trader consensus at 92% for “No” reflects this baseline rarity and lack of anomalous signals in official data. A sudden megathrust rupture remains possible given tectonic uncertainty, though short-term forecasts and strain measurements provide no supporting indicators ahead of the June 30 resolution window.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$69,331End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS seismic monitoring through early June 2026 shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events worldwide, aligning with the typical annual rate of roughly one such megaquake and the absence of any M8+ activity since the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula event. Current catalogs indicate only modest activity, including scattered M6 events and localized swarms with no precursors like accelerated strain or foreshock sequences on major subduction zones. Trader consensus at 92% for “No” reflects this baseline rarity and lack of anomalous signals in official data. A sudden megathrust rupture remains possible given tectonic uncertainty, though short-term forecasts and strain measurements provide no supporting indicators ahead of the June 30 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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