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Fed predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

99%

No change

$112M Vol.

$3M today

$15M Liq.

11

Ends in 10 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

95%

Kevin Warsh

$32M Vol.

$898K today

$1M Liq.

81

Ends in 6 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

93%

No change

$9M Vol.

$184K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

35%

0 (0 bps)

$20M Vol.

$139K today

$1M Liq.

55

Ends in 9 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

80%

No change

$4M Vol.

$338K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

37%

3.5%

$6M Vol.

$337K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

91%

June 30

$2M Vol.

$57.2K Liq.

38

Ends in 25 days

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

39%

May 15–22

$14.4K Vol.

$48.8K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

99%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$651K Vol.

$146K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

1%

$134K Vol.

$30.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 26 days

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

69%

December 31

$144K Vol.

$24.9K Liq.

9

Ends in 9 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

91%

June 30

$10.6K Vol.

$10.1K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

68%

December Meeting

$1M Vol.

$181K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

73%

June 30

$592K Vol.

$51.8K Liq.

12

Ends in 26 days

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

70%

1

$50.8K Vol.

$29.3K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

91%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$908K Vol.

$109K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

$909K Vol.

$69.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

8%

$52.5K Vol.

$24.8K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

71%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$213K Liq.

5

Ends in 9 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

3%

$260K Vol.

$15.5K Liq.

33

Ends in 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 31 active markets for Fed that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $191.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 99% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fed predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.