The Federal Reserve's abolition before 2027 faces steep institutional and legislative barriers that underpin the 98.6% trader consensus against it occurring. Established by statute, any dissolution would require congressional passage of new law, typically needing broad bipartisan support amid competing priorities in monetary policy, inflation targeting, and financial stability mandates. No major bills or coordinated campaigns have advanced in recent sessions to eliminate the central bank, and historical patterns show such structural overhauls remain rare even under unified government control. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an acute financial crisis prompting emergency reform legislation, a sustained supermajority in both chambers aligned on replacement mechanisms, or unforeseen court rulings reinterpreting the Fed's statutory authority.