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Elections·Primaries

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

Lois Frankel 77%

Oliver Adams Larkin 16.2%

Victoria Doyle <1%

Jared Moskowitz <1%

Polymarket

$33,205 Vol.

Lois Frankel 77%

Oliver Adams Larkin 16.2%

Victoria Doyle <1%

Jared Moskowitz <1%

Polymarket

$33,205 Vol.

Lois Frankel

$2,535 Vol.

82%

Oliver Adams Larkin

$13,837 Vol.

16%

Victoria Doyle

$1,261 Vol.

1%

Jared Moskowitz

$15,573 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lois Frankel maintains an overwhelming lead in the FL-23 Democratic primary market because the late April 2026 congressional redistricting preserved the core of her Palm Beach County base in the newly configured district, which rates as solidly Democratic. As the longtime incumbent who formally filed for the seat in early May, Frankel benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and institutional support ahead of the August 18 primary. Challengers including Oliver Adams Larkin, Victoria Doyle—who launched her campaign in the prior district configuration—and Jared Moskowitz register minimal support, reflecting limited visibility and resources in the adjusted boundaries. No major recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving the outcome heavily dependent on Frankel’s incumbency advantages through the filing deadline and into the summer campaign period.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$33,205
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lois Frankel maintains an overwhelming lead in the FL-23 Democratic primary market because the late April 2026 congressional redistricting preserved the core of her Palm Beach County base in the newly configured district, which rates as solidly Democratic. As the longtime incumbent who formally filed for the seat in early May, Frankel benefits from established name recognition, superior fundraising, and institutional support ahead of the August 18 primary. Challengers including Oliver Adams Larkin, Victoria Doyle—who launched her campaign in the prior district configuration—and Jared Moskowitz register minimal support, reflecting limited visibility and resources in the adjusted boundaries. No major recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving the outcome heavily dependent on Frankel’s incumbency advantages through the filing deadline and into the summer campaign period.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$33,205
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lois Frankel" at 82%, followed by "Oliver Adams Larkin" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $33.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Lois Frankel" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Oliver Adams Larkin" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.