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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 19.7%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,246,721 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 19.7%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,246,721 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$9,887,733 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,872,113 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,482,397 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,121,344 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,580,273 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,015,634 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,938,074 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,688,612 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,467,816 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,207 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,557 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,835,672 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,899,639 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,792 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,840 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,124,248 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,631,155 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,318,513 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,412,123 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,343,976 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,281,570 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,484,409 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,848,209 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,757,567 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,562,266 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,338,053 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,234,010 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,691,532 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,015,479 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,574,245 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,712,341 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,766,861 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,408,743 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,286,694 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,839,613 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-profile role as HHS Secretary advancing the MAHA agenda amid recent roadblocks and midterm voter concerns, alongside family speculation of a "definite" run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37%, his odds dipping to recent lows amid ambiguity on a 2028 bid during Iran tensions and reports of President Trump's donor polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's shares have climbed to 20% on Trump praise and positioning as a Vance rival, with 2026 midterms poised to test party dynamics and succession paths under term limits barring Trump's third run.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,246,721
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, reflecting his high-profile role as HHS Secretary advancing the MAHA agenda amid recent roadblocks and midterm voter concerns, alongside family speculation of a "definite" run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37%, his odds dipping to recent lows amid ambiguity on a 2028 bid during Iran tensions and reports of President Trump's donor polling favoring alternatives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's shares have climbed to 20% on Trump praise and positioning as a Vance rival, with 2026 midterms poised to test party dynamics and succession paths under term limits barring Trump's third run.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,246,721
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $519.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.