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Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

May 26

May 26

Ken Paxton 63%

John Cornyn 35%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,118,505 Vol.

Ken Paxton 63%

John Cornyn 35%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,118,505 Vol.

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Ken Paxton

$4,120,850 Vol.

63%

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John Cornyn

$3,041,549 Vol.

35%

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Dawn Buckingham

$906,200 Vol.

<1%

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Beth Van Duyne

$5,301,725 Vol.

<1%

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Wesley Hunt

$1,748,182 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Following the March 3 Republican primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff after neither secured a majority, recent polls have positioned Paxton as the trader-favored frontrunner at 62.5% implied probability. Surveys from late March, including Quantus Insights and GQR, show Paxton leading Cornyn 47%-42% and 47%-41% among likely GOP primary voters, with Paxton's edge persisting even in hypothetical scenarios featuring a Trump endorsement for Cornyn. Paxton's resilience through impeachment battles, alignment with the conservative base, and fresh endorsements from CPAC and Rep. Brandon Gill have boosted his momentum, while Cornyn relies on incumbency and establishment backing amid criticism as insufficiently combative. The closely contested runoff hinges on turnout among primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,118,505
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Following the March 3 Republican primary where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff after neither secured a majority, recent polls have positioned Paxton as the trader-favored frontrunner at 62.5% implied probability. Surveys from late March, including Quantus Insights and GQR, show Paxton leading Cornyn 47%-42% and 47%-41% among likely GOP primary voters, with Paxton's edge persisting even in hypothetical scenarios featuring a Trump endorsement for Cornyn. Paxton's resilience through impeachment battles, alignment with the conservative base, and fresh endorsements from CPAC and Rep. Brandon Gill have boosted his momentum, while Cornyn relies on incumbency and establishment backing amid criticism as insufficiently combative. The closely contested runoff hinges on turnout among primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,118,505
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 63%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $15.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.