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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$922,845,730 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$922,845,730 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$15,677,098 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,013,639 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,695,182 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,505,378 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,741,054 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,262,557 Vol.

4%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,480,402 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,324,030 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,456,900 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$5,925,829 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,732,127 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,475,443 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,366,964 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,090,210 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$6,956,396 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,470,882 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,265,775 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,343,250 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,948,446 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$10,898,969 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,423,654 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,394,757 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,541,055 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,010,411 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,880,598 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,582,257 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,200,831 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,844,571 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$34,965,776 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,359,643 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,863,547 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,175,502 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,539,823 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,044,684 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,239,350 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,042,757 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$24,946,698 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$30,785,189 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,741,826 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,152,487 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,186,404 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,163,459 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$23,890,200 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,247,608 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability, reflecting his executive experience, strong fundraising, and national profile honed through high-visibility anti-Trump stances and debates like his 2023 faceoff with Ron DeSantis. Post-Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, Democrats seek a pragmatic alternative amid internal debates on progressive versus moderate paths, boosting Newsom over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), who energizes the left base, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%), valued for battleground wins. The fragmented field underscores uncertainty; consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in swing states, early primary polling, fundraising hauls, and key endorsements from party leaders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$922,845,730
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability, reflecting his executive experience, strong fundraising, and national profile honed through high-visibility anti-Trump stances and debates like his 2023 faceoff with Ron DeSantis. Post-Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, Democrats seek a pragmatic alternative amid internal debates on progressive versus moderate paths, boosting Newsom over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), who energizes the left base, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%), valued for battleground wins. The fragmented field underscores uncertainty; consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in swing states, early primary polling, fundraising hauls, and key endorsements from party leaders.

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24% implied probability, reflecting his executive experience, strong fundraising, and national profile honed through high-visibility anti-Trump stances and debates like his 2023 faceoff with Ron DeSantis. Post-Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat, Democrats seek a pragmatic alternative amid internal debates on progressive versus moderate paths, boosting Newsom over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), who energizes the left base, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%), valued for battleground wins. The fragmented field underscores uncertainty; consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in swing states, early primary polling, fundraising hauls, and key endorsements from party leaders.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $922.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.