May Inflation US - Annual

Name: May Inflation US - Annual
Start: 2026-05-12T19:50:56.071Z
End: 2026-06-10T08:00:00.000Z

Jun 10

4.2% 45%

4.3% 40%

4.1% 8.5%

≥4.4% 9%

$359,218 Vol.

Jun 10, 2026

≤3.3%

$19,520 Vol.

<1%

3.4%

$17,416 Vol.

<1%

3.5%

$24,922 Vol.

<1%

3.6%

$22,242 Vol.

<1%

3.7%

$23,834 Vol.

<1%

3.8%

$22,805 Vol.

<1%

3.9%

$29,252 Vol.

4.0%

$26,201 Vol.

4.1%

$29,114 Vol.

4.2%

$44,948 Vol.

45%

4.3%

$58,784 Vol.

40%

≥4.4%

$40,222 Vol.

4.2% 45%

4.3% 40%

4.1% 8.5%

≥4.4% 9%

$359,218 Vol.

Jun 10, 2026

≤3.3%

$19,520 Vol.

<1%

3.4%

$17,416 Vol.

<1%

3.5%

$24,922 Vol.

<1%

3.6%

$22,242 Vol.

<1%

3.7%

$23,834 Vol.

<1%

3.8%

$22,805 Vol.

<1%

3.9%

$29,252 Vol.

4.0%

$26,201 Vol.

4.1%

$29,114 Vol.

4.2%

$44,948 Vol.

45%

4.3%

$58,784 Vol.

40%

≥4.4%

$40,222 Vol.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?

51%

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May?

57%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?

54%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"May Inflation US - Annual" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.2%" at 45%, followed by "4.3%" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "May Inflation US - Annual" has generated $359.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "May Inflation US - Annual," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "May Inflation US - Annual" is "4.2%" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.3%" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "May Inflation US - Annual" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "May Inflation US - Annual." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $359.2K traded on “May Inflation US - Annual,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "May Inflation US - Annual," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 45¢ for "4.2%" in the "May Inflation US - Annual" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 45% chance that "4.2%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 45¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 55¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "May Inflation US - Annual" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 10, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "May Inflation US - Annual" market has an active community of 185 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "May Inflation US - Annual." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

May Inflation US - Annual

May Inflation US - Annual

Rules

Market Context

Rules

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Comments (185)

Top Holders

Positions

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