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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,013,666 Vol.

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,013,666 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,057,862 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,930,433 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,485,609 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,302,020 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,582,076 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,770 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,941,349 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,690,482 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,471,164 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,953,415 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,999,275 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,477,491 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,970,214 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,676,131 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,128,923 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,077 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,691,669 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,321,159 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,414,759 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,271 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,283,737 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,490,204 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,855,129 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,567,023 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,345,991 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,240,454 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,701,668 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,867 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,191 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,444 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,769 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,767,660 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,413,699 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,294,777 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,857,451 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability, reflecting his sustained popularity as HHS Secretary and the MAGA-MAHA alliance's role in delivering Trump's 2024 popular vote, bolstered by his influence on health policy amid high Cabinet approval ratings. J.D. Vance holds 37% as Vice President and recent CPAC straw poll winner, though odds have slipped amid policy differences with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Iran escalation, where President Trump's praise and informal donor polling elevate Rubio to 21%. With Trump term-limited by the 22nd Amendment, early jockeying intensifies ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape the primary field through incumbency advantages and base turnout dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,013,666
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 market favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability, reflecting his sustained popularity as HHS Secretary and the MAGA-MAHA alliance's role in delivering Trump's 2024 popular vote, bolstered by his influence on health policy amid high Cabinet approval ratings. J.D. Vance holds 37% as Vice President and recent CPAC straw poll winner, though odds have slipped amid policy differences with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Iran escalation, where President Trump's praise and informal donor polling elevate Rubio to 21%. With Trump term-limited by the 22nd Amendment, early jockeying intensifies ahead of 2026 midterms, which could reshape the primary field through incumbency advantages and base turnout dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,013,666
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $520 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.