Ongoing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine's retaliatory drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ports, including strikes reported just hours ago on Primorsk and Nizhny Novgorod, underscore persistent escalation amid Russia's spring offensive, which recently saw claims of full control over Luhansk region. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelensky's openness to meeting Putin following talks with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and Erdogan's offer to host negotiations in Istanbul, alongside expected US envoy visits to Kyiv this month, have stalled since February's Geneva rounds, hampered by incompatible demands over postwar security guarantees and territorial concessions. With no breakthrough despite US mediation attempts, trader consensus prices a ceasefire by year-end at 29.5%, reflecting battlefield momentum favoring prolonged conflict over de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$12,439,734 Vol.
$12,439,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$12,439,734 Vol.
$12,439,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine's retaliatory drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ports, including strikes reported just hours ago on Primorsk and Nizhny Novgorod, underscore persistent escalation amid Russia's spring offensive, which recently saw claims of full control over Luhansk region. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelensky's openness to meeting Putin following talks with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and Erdogan's offer to host negotiations in Istanbul, alongside expected US envoy visits to Kyiv this month, have stalled since February's Geneva rounds, hampered by incompatible demands over postwar security guarantees and territorial concessions. With no breakthrough despite US mediation attempts, trader consensus prices a ceasefire by year-end at 29.5%, reflecting battlefield momentum favoring prolonged conflict over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,439,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine's retaliatory drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ports, including strikes reported just hours ago on Primorsk and Nizhny Novgorod, underscore persistent escalation amid Russia's spring offensive, which recently saw claims of full control over Luhansk region. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelensky's openness to meeting Putin following talks with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and Erdogan's offer to host negotiations in Istanbul, alongside expected US envoy visits to Kyiv this month, have stalled since February's Geneva rounds, hampered by incompatible demands over postwar security guarantees and territorial concessions. With no breakthrough despite US mediation attempts, trader consensus prices a ceasefire by year-end at 29.5%, reflecting battlefield momentum favoring prolonged conflict over de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$12,439,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Ongoing Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine's retaliatory drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and ports, including strikes reported just hours ago on Primorsk and Nizhny Novgorod, underscore persistent escalation amid Russia's spring offensive, which recently saw claims of full control over Luhansk region. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelensky's openness to meeting Putin following talks with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew and Erdogan's offer to host negotiations in Istanbul, alongside expected US envoy visits to Kyiv this month, have stalled since February's Geneva rounds, hampered by incompatible demands over postwar security guarantees and territorial concessions. With no breakthrough despite US mediation attempts, trader consensus prices a ceasefire by year-end at 29.5%, reflecting battlefield momentum favoring prolonged conflict over de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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