This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote April 29, clearing a key hurdle toward full Senate confirmation expected the week of May 11, ahead of Jerome Powell's term expiration in mid-May. Traders price Warsh at near-certainty reflecting Republican Senate control, his prior Fed governor experience from 2006-2011, and testimony affirming central bank independence despite Democratic skepticism from figures like Elizabeth Warren. Historical patterns favor nominees post-committee approval, but scenarios like unexpected holds, bipartisan defections—such as from expected yes-vote Sen. Fetterman—or late scandals could disrupt the process.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote April 29, clearing a key hurdle toward full Senate confirmation expected the week of May 11, ahead of Jerome Powell's term expiration in mid-May. Traders price Warsh at near-certainty reflecting Republican Senate control, his prior Fed governor experience from 2006-2011, and testimony affirming central bank independence despite Democratic skepticism from figures like Elizabeth Warren. Historical patterns favor nominees post-committee approval, but scenarios like unexpected holds, bipartisan defections—such as from expected yes-vote Sen. Fetterman—or late scandals could disrupt the process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Final Senate vote confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed chair (official Senate roll‑call)
The Senate’s affirmative vote resolved the market, locking in a 100 % “Yes”
May 2 2026
Senate leadership announces full‑Senate vote will be held the week of May 11, ahead of Powell’s May 15 term end
The scheduling of the final vote confirmed the timeline, cementing the market’s 100 %
Apr 24 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 20‑0 to advance Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
The unanimous committee vote removed the last procedural hurdle, pushing the market to full confidence that Warsh would be confirmed.
Apr 21 2026
Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his first hearing
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
Live coverage of the hearing (CBS News) showed bipartisan questioning but no major objections, reinforcing market expectations of confirmation.
Apr 14 2026
Warsh files 69‑page financial‑disclosure showing $100‑$209 million in assets
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%2%
The disclosure, highlighting large tech and crypto holdings, sparked debate over conflicts of interest but also demonstrated that the nominee was progressing through required vetting, lifting odds further.
Apr 13 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Warsh’s confirmation hearing for the week of April 13
Kevin Warsh rises to 96%1%
The announced hearing date signaled that the process was moving forward, prompting a modest
Mar 30 2026
White House formally transmits Warsh’s dual nominations to the Senate
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The official submission to the Senate (via the Library of Congress) confirmed the nomination was now in the legislative pipeline, nudging odds upward.
Jan 30 2026
President Donald Trump announces Kevin Warsh as his Fed‑chair pick
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
The White House tweet and press release named Warsh as the nominee to replace Jerome Powell, instantly lifting market confidence that a confirmed chair was imminent.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote April 29, clearing a key hurdle toward full Senate confirmation expected the week of May 11, ahead of Jerome Powell's term expiration in mid-May. Traders price Warsh at near-certainty reflecting Republican Senate control, his prior Fed governor experience from 2006-2011, and testimony affirming central bank independence despite Democratic skepticism from figures like Elizabeth Warren. Historical patterns favor nominees post-committee approval, but scenarios like unexpected holds, bipartisan defections—such as from expected yes-vote Sen. Fetterman—or late scandals could disrupt the process.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote April 29, clearing a key hurdle toward full Senate confirmation expected the week of May 11, ahead of Jerome Powell's term expiration in mid-May. Traders price Warsh at near-certainty reflecting Republican Senate control, his prior Fed governor experience from 2006-2011, and testimony affirming central bank independence despite Democratic skepticism from figures like Elizabeth Warren. Historical patterns favor nominees post-committee approval, but scenarios like unexpected holds, bipartisan defections—such as from expected yes-vote Sen. Fetterman—or late scandals could disrupt the process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Final Senate vote confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed chair (official Senate roll‑call)
The Senate’s affirmative vote resolved the market, locking in a 100 % “Yes”
May 2 2026
Senate leadership announces full‑Senate vote will be held the week of May 11, ahead of Powell’s May 15 term end
The scheduling of the final vote confirmed the timeline, cementing the market’s 100 %
Apr 24 2026
Senate Banking Committee votes 20‑0 to advance Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate
Kevin Warsh rises to 100%1%
The unanimous committee vote removed the last procedural hurdle, pushing the market to full confidence that Warsh would be confirmed.
Apr 21 2026
Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his first hearing
Kevin Warsh rises to 99%1%
Live coverage of the hearing (CBS News) showed bipartisan questioning but no major objections, reinforcing market expectations of confirmation.
Apr 14 2026
Warsh files 69‑page financial‑disclosure showing $100‑$209 million in assets
Kevin Warsh rises to 98%2%
The disclosure, highlighting large tech and crypto holdings, sparked debate over conflicts of interest but also demonstrated that the nominee was progressing through required vetting, lifting odds further.
Apr 13 2026
Senate Banking Committee schedules Warsh’s confirmation hearing for the week of April 13
Kevin Warsh rises to 96%1%
The announced hearing date signaled that the process was moving forward, prompting a modest
Mar 30 2026
White House formally transmits Warsh’s dual nominations to the Senate
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
The official submission to the Senate (via the Library of Congress) confirmed the nomination was now in the legislative pipeline, nudging odds upward.
Jan 30 2026
President Donald Trump announces Kevin Warsh as his Fed‑chair pick
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
The White House tweet and press release named Warsh as the nominee to replace Jerome Powell, instantly lifting market confidence that a confirmed chair was imminent.
"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 100%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" has generated $48.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is "Kevin Warsh" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $48.8 million traded on “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Kevin Warsh" in the "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Kevin Warsh" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" market has an active community of 98 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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Frequently Asked Questions