Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch consensus backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, as Chair Powell described the stance as "in a good place" amid elevated inflation—March PCE prices up 3.5% year-over-year total and 3.2% core, fueled by Middle East-driven oil shocks—and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and low but steady job gains of 178,000 in March. Powell stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no preset course. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 basis point cut, though persistent price pressures limit near-term easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 96%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$17,403,930 Vol.
$17,403,930 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
96%
25 bps increase
1%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 96%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$17,403,930 Vol.
$17,403,930 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,136,662 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,913,522 Vol.
2%
No change
$2,938,410 Vol.
96%
25 bps increase
$3,066,645 Vol.
1%
50+ bps increase
$4,348,692 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch consensus backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, as Chair Powell described the stance as "in a good place" amid elevated inflation—March PCE prices up 3.5% year-over-year total and 3.2% core, fueled by Middle East-driven oil shocks—and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and low but steady job gains of 178,000 in March. Powell stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no preset course. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 basis point cut, though persistent price pressures limit near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$17,403,930End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch consensus backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, as Chair Powell described the stance as "in a good place" amid elevated inflation—March PCE prices up 3.5% year-over-year total and 3.2% core, fueled by Middle East-driven oil shocks—and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and low but steady job gains of 178,000 in March. Powell stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no preset course. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 basis point cut, though persistent price pressures limit near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$17,403,930End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch consensus backed by real capital at stake. This strong positioning stems from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, as Chair Powell described the stance as "in a good place" amid elevated inflation—March PCE prices up 3.5% year-over-year total and 3.2% core, fueled by Middle East-driven oil shocks—and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and low but steady job gains of 178,000 in March. Powell stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no preset course. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May nonfarm payrolls prompting a 25 basis point cut, though persistent price pressures limit near-term easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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