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Geopolitics·World Affairs

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

icon for Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Geopolitics·World Affairs

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

7% chance
Polymarket

$9,922,756 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$9,922,756 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched position as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by the 2018 removal of presidential term limits and repeated leadership purges that have centralized authority over the military and state institutions, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in power through 2026. Recent diplomatic engagements, including summits with foreign leaders in May 2026, and the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030 signal continuity in policy priorities on national security, technological self-reliance, and party discipline. No credible public signals of resignation, removal, or health-related incapacity have emerged ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, where leadership transitions are traditionally decided. This sustained dominance aligns with the market’s strong consensus against an early exit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,922,756
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s entrenched position as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by the 2018 removal of presidential term limits and repeated leadership purges that have centralized authority over the military and state institutions, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in power through 2026. Recent diplomatic engagements, including summits with foreign leaders in May 2026, and the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030 signal continuity in policy priorities on national security, technological self-reliance, and party discipline. No credible public signals of resignation, removal, or health-related incapacity have emerged ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, where leadership transitions are traditionally decided. This sustained dominance aligns with the market’s strong consensus against an early exit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,922,756
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Xi Jinping out before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Xi Jinping out before 2027?" has generated $9.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Xi Jinping out before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Xi Jinping out before 2027?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Xi Jinping out before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.