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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.9%

Jon Ossoff 7.2%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$982,307,811 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.9%

Jon Ossoff 7.2%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$982,307,811 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$19,094,982 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$8,538,776 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,432,541 Vol.

7%

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Kamala Harris

$9,148,028 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,777,417 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,231,152 Vol.

4%

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Jon Stewart

$12,988,744 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$5,729,313 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,956,779 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,861,842 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,966,501 Vol.

2%

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Stephen A. Smith

$15,765,556 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,672,264 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,768,918 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,458,958 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,133,961 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,866,063 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,628,149 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,112,945 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,315,437 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,010,084 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,235,923 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,770,922 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,346,295 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,903,833 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,581,549 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,863,593 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,419,039 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,511,515 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,659,390 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,326,452 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,383,895 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,028,494 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,064,651 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,761,618 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,280,315 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,189,559 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,756,325 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$20,393,976 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,498,994 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$24,156,686 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,304,888 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,882,411 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,543,414 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the clear frontrunner at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by early March primary polls showing him leading nationally at 20% in Emerson surveys and dominating California Democratic voters 28%-14% over Kamala Harris in a POLITICO/UC Berkeley poll. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive base support through media savvy and youth, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 7% reflects swing-state Georgia credentials and reelection momentum potential in 2026 midterms. In this wide-open post-2024 field, Newsom's executive experience and fundraising edge differentiate him, but strong midterm showings, early-state endorsements, and DNC calendar shifts could consolidate support behind any viable contender.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$982,307,811
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the clear frontrunner at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by early March primary polls showing him leading nationally at 20% in Emerson surveys and dominating California Democratic voters 28%-14% over Kamala Harris in a POLITICO/UC Berkeley poll. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive base support through media savvy and youth, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 7% reflects swing-state Georgia credentials and reelection momentum potential in 2026 midterms. In this wide-open post-2024 field, Newsom's executive experience and fundraising edge differentiate him, but strong midterm showings, early-state endorsements, and DNC calendar shifts could consolidate support behind any viable contender.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$982,307,811
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $982.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.