Missouri’s 6th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural northern Missouri demographics and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Sam Graves retiring after more than two decades, the open seat has drawn multiple Republican primary contenders ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic options remain limited and untested in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Traders price the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent, reflecting the structural partisan advantage and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Factors that could still shift odds include an unusually divisive Republican primary that damages the nominee’s general-election standing or a broader national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district’s baseline lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$29,268 Vol.
$29,268 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$29,268 Vol.
$29,268 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$23,619 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$5,649 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural northern Missouri demographics and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Sam Graves retiring after more than two decades, the open seat has drawn multiple Republican primary contenders ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic options remain limited and untested in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Traders price the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent, reflecting the structural partisan advantage and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Factors that could still shift odds include an unusually divisive Republican primary that damages the nominee’s general-election standing or a broader national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district’s baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$29,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 6th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural northern Missouri demographics and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Sam Graves retiring after more than two decades, the open seat has drawn multiple Republican primary contenders ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic options remain limited and untested in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Traders price the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent, reflecting the structural partisan advantage and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Factors that could still shift odds include an unusually divisive Republican primary that damages the nominee’s general-election standing or a broader national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district’s baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 6th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural northern Missouri demographics and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles. With incumbent Sam Graves retiring after more than two decades, the open seat has drawn multiple Republican primary contenders ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic options remain limited and untested in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Traders price the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent, reflecting the structural partisan advantage and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. Factors that could still shift odds include an unusually divisive Republican primary that damages the nominee’s general-election standing or a broader national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district’s baseline lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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