Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 26 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican Ronald Whitfield in the November general election. The newly redrawn district remains strongly Democratic-leaning despite mid-decade map changes, with Menefee’s primary victory and incumbency status reinforcing trader consensus on the party’s advantage. No major developments have shifted the race in the past week, leaving the outcome dependent on standard turnout patterns and any late-cycle national factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-18 House Election Winner
TX-18 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
78%
Republican Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
78%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 26 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican Ronald Whitfield in the November general election. The newly redrawn district remains strongly Democratic-leaning despite mid-decade map changes, with Menefee’s primary victory and incumbency status reinforcing trader consensus on the party’s advantage. No major developments have shifted the race in the past week, leaving the outcome dependent on standard turnout patterns and any late-cycle national factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 26 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican Ronald Whitfield in the November general election. The newly redrawn district remains strongly Democratic-leaning despite mid-decade map changes, with Menefee’s primary victory and incumbency status reinforcing trader consensus on the party’s advantage. No major developments have shifted the race in the past week, leaving the outcome dependent on standard turnout patterns and any late-cycle national factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 26 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican Ronald Whitfield in the November general election. The newly redrawn district remains strongly Democratic-leaning despite mid-decade map changes, with Menefee’s primary victory and incumbency status reinforcing trader consensus on the party’s advantage. No major developments have shifted the race in the past week, leaving the outcome dependent on standard turnout patterns and any late-cycle national factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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