US federal prosecutors in Manhattan are pursuing narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture in a US military raid, with a June 2027 trial date set. Additional charges related to alleged torture of detained Americans are expected imminently. Maduro’s defense team has filed motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and capture-legality grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026. Prosecutors counter that he holds no such immunity. The market’s elevated probability for no prison time reflects trader assessment of these pretrial hurdles, evidentiary thresholds, and potential outcomes in a case where conviction could result in lengthy or life sentences given Maduro’s age.