Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. The case remains in pretrial proceedings with a June 30, 2026 court date ahead, after not-guilty pleas and hearings that left sentencing timelines uncertain. Trader positioning shows "no prison time" edging ahead at 30.5% while longer terms like 60+ years hold 24%, reflecting variables such as conviction prospects under precedents like the Noriega case, possible plea negotiations, diplomatic resolutions, health developments, or delays in a complex extradition and trial process. Recent adjournments and custody conditions at the Metropolitan Detention Center underscore how procedural and political factors continue to keep probabilities tightly contested.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo prison time 31%
60+ 24%
20–40 20.8%
<20 10.1%
$557,698 Vol.
$557,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
31%
<20
14%
20–40
21%
40–60
3%
60+
24%
No prison time 31%
60+ 24%
20–40 20.8%
<20 10.1%
$557,698 Vol.
$557,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
No prison time
$379,189 Vol.
31%
<20
$75,900 Vol.
14%
20–40
$49,439 Vol.
21%
40–60
$16,842 Vol.
3%
60+
$36,330 Vol.
24%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. The case remains in pretrial proceedings with a June 30, 2026 court date ahead, after not-guilty pleas and hearings that left sentencing timelines uncertain. Trader positioning shows "no prison time" edging ahead at 30.5% while longer terms like 60+ years hold 24%, reflecting variables such as conviction prospects under precedents like the Noriega case, possible plea negotiations, diplomatic resolutions, health developments, or delays in a complex extradition and trial process. Recent adjournments and custody conditions at the Metropolitan Detention Center underscore how procedural and political factors continue to keep probabilities tightly contested.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$557,698End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. The case remains in pretrial proceedings with a June 30, 2026 court date ahead, after not-guilty pleas and hearings that left sentencing timelines uncertain. Trader positioning shows "no prison time" edging ahead at 30.5% while longer terms like 60+ years hold 24%, reflecting variables such as conviction prospects under precedents like the Noriega case, possible plea negotiations, diplomatic resolutions, health developments, or delays in a complex extradition and trial process. Recent adjournments and custody conditions at the Metropolitan Detention Center underscore how procedural and political factors continue to keep probabilities tightly contested.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$557,698End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. The case remains in pretrial proceedings with a June 30, 2026 court date ahead, after not-guilty pleas and hearings that left sentencing timelines uncertain. Trader positioning shows "no prison time" edging ahead at 30.5% while longer terms like 60+ years hold 24%, reflecting variables such as conviction prospects under precedents like the Noriega case, possible plea negotiations, diplomatic resolutions, health developments, or delays in a complex extradition and trial process. Recent adjournments and custody conditions at the Metropolitan Detention Center underscore how procedural and political factors continue to keep probabilities tightly contested.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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